RELEASE: The climate is warming and sea levels rising way faster than governments are acting

Only six of the countries the Climate Action Tracker analyses ⁽¹⁾ have submitted their new 2035 climate targets in time for the Paris Agreement's 10 February 2025 deadline, and only one — the UK — is proposing actions at home that are 1.5°C-aligned.

The February 10 deadline is important for transparency, to demonstrate commitment and to enable the international community to understand the risk it faces given the so far insufficient efforts to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goal.

The UAE, Brazil, the US, Switzerland and New Zealand have all come up with 2035 targets that fall way short of what is needed to keep global warming to 1.5°C, underscoring an urgent need to revitalise global climate action (see brief country analyses below).

"The public is entitled to expect a strong reaction from their governments to the fact that global warming has now reached 1.5° for an entire year, but we have seen virtually nothing of real substance," said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, a Climate Action Tracker partner organisation

“So far, governments haven't lived up to their promises made ten years ago — to bring the world closer to a pathway consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C at the speed needed. The deadline they themselves set ten years ago needs to mark the beginning of a year that sees a marked turning point in government action."

All eyes are now in the large emitters such as EU, China and India who have not yet submitted a 2035 NDC.

The next climate commitments are important for they will determine the ability of governments to comply with the Paris Agreement. In its guide to a good 2035 NDC, the CAT highlighted four crucial elements needed for this round of NDCs: they should be ambitious, fair, credible and transparent. Central to the ambition component is the strengthening of 2030 targets, something none of the submitted NDCs have included. Failure to increase the 2030 targets renders the 2035 targets less credible and therefore makes limiting peak global warming to 1.5°C ever more difficult.

The level of emissions expected if countries meet their existing NDCs will lead to almost twice the 2030 global greenhouse gas emissions as necessary for the 1.5˚C Paris Agreement temperature goal (70–85% above what would be necessary), highlighting a significant shortfall in climate action.

The science is clear: to stay on track with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal, global emissions need to peak this year and be halved by 2030, compared to 2019 levels. This reduction must be followed by a steep fall, reaching net-zero CO2 emissions by around mid-century and net zero GHG emissions soon after that.

Meanwhile the global climate catastrophe continues to worsen

The urgency of ambitious climate action is underscored by the mounting devastation from climate-fuelled disasters across the globe. From record-breaking heatwaves to catastrophic flooding and intensifying wildfires, the impacts of climate change are escalating, affecting millions of people worldwide.

Meanwhile the CAT global temperature projections have remained unchanged since 2021, with warming expected to continue even beyond 2100. Pledges and policies currently in place are not enough to meet the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming below 1.5°C.

"So many of the countries who haven't put forward 2035 targets have experienced climate disasters in recent months: we trust that they will be working hard on developing strong climate targets commensurate with the threat they've been faced with," said Prof. Niklas Höhne of the other CAT partner organisation, NewClimate Institute.

“Every fraction of a degree matters, and we expect governments to use the remaining time to submit ambitious 2035 NDCs and update their 2030 targets that align with the 1.5°C goal and commit to real, transformative action”.

Without an increase in policy ambition and implementation, global temperatures will likely continue climbing, pushing the planet into increasingly dangerous climate thresholds with severe, long-term impacts.

A stagnation in global warming projections since 2021 as warming continues to break records

The CAT’s global temperature projections for the end of the century, released in the November global update, have remained unchanged for the last three years, despite the fact that every region in the world continues to witness increasingly severe impacts of climate change.

“The slow pace and lack of ambition in NDC submissions is alarming” said Sofia Gonzales-Zuñiga from Climate Analytics.

“This year must be the year governments step up their game, take their climate commitments seriously, and demonstrate real leadership. If they're missing this February 10 deadline, they should come up with good and strong new targets before COP30 in Brazil.”

The CAT has also provided recommendations for the level of ambition needed in 2030 and 2035 for seven large emitters (China, the United States, India, the European Union, Indonesia, Japan and Australia) and the COP “Troika” countries (the UAE, Azerbaijan and Brazil) that, together, represent over 60% of global emissions.

Brief assessments of the NDC's submitted so far (CAT countries only)

UAE: While the UAE submitted a significantly more ambitious 2035 mitigation target compared to its 2030 target, we do not consider its overall NDC commitment as 1.5°C compatible. It has not updated its 2030 target, which implies an unrealistic acceleration of mitigation action - from a 7% reduction in 2030 to a 44% reduction in 2035, below 2019 levels. The UAE is not on track to meet its 2030 target with its current policies and without details on how emissions cuts will be achieved, the 2035 target is not credible.

Brazil: Brazil submitted a target to reduce emissions between 59–67% below 2005 levels by 2035. Assessing the ambition of this target has been difficult due to the lack of transparency on how much the land sector sink will contribute to the target, given the country's need for urgent reductions in the energy sector. This results in an extraordinarily wide range of estimated emissions from all other sectors (excl. LULUCF) that are consistent with the NDC target. The lack of transparency is a clear issue for climate integrity – the public and the scientific community need to be able to understand what a government is proposing to do and in the present situation, Brazil’s NDC provides no clarity on this. We conclude that Brazil’s 2035 NDC target is not 1.5°C compatible.

USA: The Trump administration is walking away from climate science and action and favouring the expansion of oil and gas; attempting to unwind the policies introduced by former President Biden. This will be a major setback to climate action in the US and if the Trump administration is successful in pushing its agenda globally, it could get a lot worse.

In December 2024 the Biden Administration submitted the US 2035 NDC to the UNFCCC, and while the Trump administration is withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, this NDC can still be a guiding document for the roughly half of the US states who support continued climate action. With the bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act at risk, these subnational actors must resist rollbacks and raise the ambition of their own climate policies to keep the 2035 target within reach.

Switzerland: While Switzerland’s 2035 NDC target of reducing GHG emissions to at least 65% below 1990 levels appears to reflect an increase in ambition compared to its 2030 target, the new target not only remains insufficient, it is diverging from a 1.5° aligned pathway. The gap between the new target and our cost-effective 1.5°C modelled domestic pathway has increased both in absolute and relative terms compared to the 2030 target. The lack of transparency on the share of emission reductions to be achieved domestically versus through international carbon credits makes it almost impossible to assess the stringency and ambition of this target.

The UK: About the only bright spot is the UK’s 2035 NDC, which is beginning to align its actions at home with a 1.5° pathway, which should provide an inspiration to other developed countries to take a big step forward. The UK’s 2035 NDC target of reducing emission by 81% below 1990 levels by 2035 would need to be supported by more international climate finance to be a fully 1.5°C aligned contribution to the Paris Agreement.

What matters most now is action to reduce emissions in the real economy. The new government has inherited a vast implementation gap, with existing policies covering only 24% of the emissions reductions needed to meet the new 2035 target. Urgent action will be needed to introduce, strengthen and implement policy mechanisms that turn this new ambition into reality.

New Zealand: the new 2035 NDC represent an increase in ambition compared to the 2030 mitigation target but still falls far short of being 1.5°C-aligned with our modelled domestic pathways. New Zealand’s 2035 NDC target aims to reduce net emissions by 51–55% below 2005 gross levels but may even allow for higher gross emissions relative to the 2030 target and introduces greater uncertainty in its reduction pathway due to the wide range between the estimated minimum and maximum emission values. Additionally, shifting from a multi-year to a single-year target, combined with its reliance on unproven technology for emissions reduction, increases the uncertainty of achieving its 2035 and the long-term target.

⁽¹⁾ The CAT tracks around 40 countries and the EU covering approximately 85% global emissions. Aside from the six CAT countries listed, Uruguay, Andorra, Ecuador and Saint Lucia also submitted NDCs with targets for 2035. [LAST UPDATED FEB 6th 2025]

See the latest 2035 NDCs