RELEASE: UAE's new 2035 target lacks credible plan to get there: not 1.5˚C aligned

...the CAT launches new Climate Target Update Tracker

While the UAE’s new 2035 NDC includes an ambitious emissions reduction target that lies within a 1.5˚C pathway, its NDC commitments as a whole cannot be rated 1.5˚C compatible. This is because the UAE has not strengthened its 2030 target, which is far from being 1.5˚C aligned, the Climate Action Tracker said today, as it launched its new Climate Target Update Tracker.

Without an updated, 1.5˚C-aligned, 2030 NDC target, and details as to how the UAE would achieve what would be a 37-53% cut in emissions in the five years from 2030 to 2035, it is difficult to view the UAE's new 2035 target as credible.

Read the full UAE 2035 target assessment

"The lack of alignment between the 2030 and 2035 targets means that the CAT cannot rate the UAE’s NDCs as 1.5C-aligned, despite the 2035 target itself landing below the CAT's 1.5°C compatible 2035 modelled domestic pathway," said Sarah Heck, of Climate Analytics, a CAT partner organisation.

The UAE did not increase the ambition of its 2030 emission reduction target, which remains well above the CAT 1.5°C compatible modelled domestic pathways.

The new 2035 target represents a 44% reduction below 2019 levels (excl. LULUCF), up from a 7% reduction promised for 2030, which the UAE is still far from meeting based on their existing policies.

The CAT current policy projections shows the UAE’s expected emissions in 2030 will be 22% above its 2030 target, and 53% above its new 2035 target. This means that without major improvement in the UAE’s policies, a more than 50% reduction would be needed between 2030 and 2035 to meet the new NDC target.

The UAE is the first 2035 target assessed in the CAT's new Climate Target Update Tracker, now online. This page will track analyses of new 2035 targets - as well as updated 2030 NDCs.

"Given the fact that the vast majority of countries we track have inadequate 2030 NDCs they're not set to meet, it's crucial for them to increase action pre-2030 as well as set 1.5 aligned targets for 2035," said Sarah Heck.

“We will be looking very carefully at whether ambitious targets for 2035 are credible given policies and actions in place now and the level of target setting in 2030. The UAE's 2035 NDC is a clear example of this concern," she said.

Bookmark the new tracker

Brazil: the lack of details from Brazil around the role of the Land Use and Forestry (LULUCF) sector in defining their NDC target for 2035 complicates assessments of Brazil's ambition to decarbonise its economy. The CAT is working on resolving the data issues to provide an initial assessment soon.

The UK has also announced a 2035 NDC in the past week: while it appears to be 1.5˚C aligned, the CAT is waiting to see the detailed numbers before it can fully assess whether the UK’s 2030 and 2035 targets taken together are1.5˚C aligned.