Publications

Three days before the end of the climate talks in Cancun, options are still on the table to widen the emissions gap between countries’ targets and what is needed to limit warming to below 2°C or 1.5°C.The bad news: The current negotiating texts for forests and for the use of read more...

Joeri Rogelj, Claudine Chen, Julia Nabel, Kirsten Macey, William Hare, Michiel Schaeffer, Kathleen Markmann, Niklas Höhne, Katrine Krogh Andersen and Malte MeinshausenThis analysis of the Copenhagen Accord evaluates emission reduction pledges by individual countries against the Accord's climate-related objectives. Probabilistic estimates of the climatic consequences for a set of resulting read more...

Joeri Rogelj, Julia Nabel, Claudine Chen, William Hare, Kathleen Markmann, Malte Meinshausen,Michiel Schaeffer, Kirsten Macey, Niklas Höhne.Nature, Vol. 464, p. 1126-1128.Current national emissions targets can't limit global warming to 2 °C, calculate Joeri Rogelj, Malte Meinshausen and colleagues — they might even lock the world into exceeding 3 °C warming.Full read more...

Globally business as usual emissions for 2020 of 57 GtCO2e are projected. To have a good chance at limiting global warming to 2°C or 1.5°C, 2020 emissions would need to be below 44 and 40 GtCO2e respectively. Hence the Copenhagen Climate Deal needs reductions of around 13-17 GtCO2e by 2020.