Argentina

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Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Historical emissions

Historical emissions for 1990–2014 were taken from the national GHG inventory published in the 2nd Biennial Update Report (Government of Argentina, 2017).

Pledges

NDC absolute emissions levels including LULUCF are provided directly in the NDC for the unconditional and conditional targets (Government of Argentina, 2016a). However, to distinguish LULUCF emissions from the total GHG emissions and calculate its ratings, the CAT assumes that the mitigation efforts will be proportional to the sector's relevance in terms of emissions contribution, thus maintaining the share of each sector's emissions similar across the years until 2030. This assumption is in line with the information provided by the Ministry of Environment on the expected shares of emissions of each sector in the present and until 2030 (Ministry of Environment of Argentina, 2016).

Current policy projections

The CAT projections for Argentina base on various sources:

For the energy sector we used two alternative scenarios:
- For the “current policies projections”: Energy sector projections from MINEM, published in December 2017 (Ministry of Energy and Mining, 2018b). The document covers all energy related emissions under implemented policies. The document does not mention the carbon tax (compare section “current policies” further up).
- For the “additional policies projections”: Energy sector projections from the mitigation scenarios prepared for the 3rd National Communication (Ministry of the Environment and Sustainable Development, 2015).
For the remaining sectors, for all scenarios we use the country’s GHG emissions projections of the 3rd National Communication (Ministry of the Environment and Sustainable Development, 2015) which uses 2012 as base year.

We harmonise the projections to the historical emissions dataset published in the 2nd Biennial Update Report (Government of Argentina, 2017), by applying the growth rates of the projections to the last available historical data point.