Argentina

Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming of greater than 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming over 2°C and up to 3°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with holding warming below, but not well below, 2°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. No “role model” rating has been developed for the sectors.

1.5°C Compatible< 1.5°C World

Paris Agreement

On November 2016, Argentina presented its revised NDC. It includes two absolute emissions reduction targets for 2030 (Government of Argentina, 2016a).

The unconditional target limits emissions to 483 MtCO2e by 2030 including LULUCF and, according to our calculations, to 405 MtCO2e excluding LULUCF by 2030. This unconditional target is equivalent to 22% above 2010 levels and 74% above 1990 levels excluding LULUCF.

The conditional target, including LULUCF, limits emissions to 369 MtCO2e by 2030 and, according to our calculations, to 310 MtCO2e excluding LULUCF by 2030. This is equivalent to 7% reduction below 2010 levels and 22% above 1990 levels, excluding LULUCF.

The revision process included two steps and led to a very small increase in mitigation ambition (about 1%), compared to the previous NDC target. This came as a result of revising the baseline scenario and the mitigation actions included in it when developed for the Argentina’s first NDC. In a second step, the methodology for quantifying historical emissions was updated to the IPCC 2006 guidelines, causing a reduction of about 19% of emissions from agriculture and LULUCF in 2012 (compared with 1996 guidelines). This caused the baseline scenario to move down and, given that initially the target was set as a reduction relative to BAU, so did the emissions reduction target. Finally, to reduce uncertainties related to the baseline and to take their commitment to action “one step forward”, Argentina decided to change the type of target and reported its national contribution as an absolute emissions reduction by 2030 (Ministry of Environment of Argentina, 2016).

CAT ratings are based on emissions excluding the LULUCF sector. To obtain the NDC emissions level excluding LULUCF, the CAT assumes that the share of the LULUCF emissions in 2030 will be similar to the share of these emissions in the NDC’s BAU scenario. This scenario was recently updated, and now projects that LULUCF emissions will reduce from current levels at a slower rate than previously assumed (3rd National Communication). The revision of the BAU LULUCF emissions projection is a laudable attempt by the government to accurately reflect “reality” as highlighted during its presentation of the revised NDC at COP22 (Ministry of Environment of Argentina, 2016).

2020 pledges

Argentina submitted a list of unilateral and supported mitigation actions being undertaken across the energy efficiency, renewable energy, biofuels, forest management and waste management sectors. According to the submission “these initiatives have a direct and positive consequence in the emission reduction of GHG, contributing to the ultimate objective of the Convention” (Secretariat of Environment and Sustainable Development, 2010).