Australia

Australia submitted a stronger target to the UNFCCC in June 2022 (Australian Government, 2022). The new target is a 43% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 below 2005 levels, including LULUCF.

The target will be implemented as both an absolute target and an emissions budget for the period 2021-2030. The 2022 NDC reaffirms Australia’s target to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. The objective has been enshrined into law by the Climate Change Act adopted in 2022.

The NDC also indicates it will make adjustments for “internationally transferred mitigation outcomes” in line with Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, indicating it is also open to using international carbon credits. At present, the detailed rules and quality standards for making use of Article 6 as an ambition raising mechanism are still pending, making it difficult to assess whether they can offer a meaningful contribution to emissions reductions. Regardless, Australia should first improve its NDC target and climate finance contributions to align with a 1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible pathway and focus on reducing its domestic emissions, instead of relying on international carbon credits to meet its climate targets.

Comparison 2030 NDC Targets

* Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target

Target development timeline & previous CAT analysis

• 11.09.2019 “Australian Prime Minister Morrison unwilling to commit to a new target”
• 12.05.2020 “Australian Government confirms there will be no target update for COP26”
• 31.12.2020 “Australia repeats old target with no increase in ambition”
• 28.10.2021 “Australia did not increase ambition”

The CAT rates NDC targets against each country’s fair share contribution to global climate change mitigation, considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability, and equality. The CAT also rates NDC targets against indicative national emissions from global least-cost emissions pathways (called modelled domestic pathways). For assessing targets against the fair share, we consider both a country’s domestic emission reductions and any emissions it supports abroad through the use of market mechanisms or other ways of support, as relevant.

Australia does not intend to use market mechanisms and will achieve its NDC target through domestic action alone. We rate its NDC target against both global domestic pathways and fairness metrics.

The CAT rates Australia’s 2030 NDC target as “Insufficient” when compared to modelled domestic emissions pathways. Australia’s NDC targets emissions 43% below 2005 levels by 2030, including LULUCF. However, this target is dependent on LULUCF sequestration estimates, which fluctuate widely year on year. Using the government’s projections for LULUCF from 2023, this target equates to a reduction of 20% below 2005 levels by 2030 excluding LULUCF.

Projections for LULUCF sequestration in 2030 increased nearly fourfold between the government’s 2021 and 2023 projections. This effectively reduces the emissions reduction task for energy, industry, agriculture and waste.

The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Australia’s NDC target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with modelled domestic pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Australia’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

The CAT rates Australia’s 2030 NDC target as “Insufficient” when compared to its fair share emissions allocation. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Australia’s NDC target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with its fair share of the global mitigation effort to limit warming to 1.5°C.

Australia’s target is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort, and is not consistent with the 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. If all countries were to follow Australia’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

Australia needs to improve its fair share contribution through both strengthened domestic emissions reductions as well as financing additional climate action in developing countries.

Australia’s international public climate finance contributions are rated “Critically insufficient”. Australia has committed to increase its climate finance but contributions to date have been very low compared to its fair share. To improve its rating, Australia needs to increase the level of its international climate finance.

Australia has pledged AUD 3bn towards climate finance, encompassing both mitigation and adaptation, for the 2020-2025 period. This amount represents an increase from an earlier commitment of AUD 2bn (Department of Foreign Affairs, 2023). However, concerns remain that this commitment will include the relabelling of existing funds (Oxfam, 2023). The government finally rejoined the Green Climate Fund in 2023, after withdrawing in 2019, albeit with a “modest contribution” of AUD 50 million (ABC, 2023; Minister for Foreign Affairs & Minister for Climate Change and Energy, 2023b).

At COP28, Australia joined the Clean Energy Transition Partnership, pledging to end direct public investments into international fossil fuels projects within a year (Minister for Foreign Affairs & Minister for Climate Change and Energy, 2023a). This led the CAT to improve Australia’s fossil fuel finance overseas rating from “Highly Insufficient” to “Insufficient”. However, this does not improve Australia’s overall climate finance rating. To receive a better rating, Australia must increase the level of its international climate finance.

Australia's lack of action on climate finance is central to the discussions around COP31. Australia is proposing to host the 2026 Conference of Parties in collaboration with 'the Pacific family'. In March 2023, governments from Vanuatu, Tuvalu, Tonga, Fiji, Niue, and the Solomon Islands issued the Port Vila Resolution. The resolution calls for more public and private funding to facilitate a fair transition away from fossil fuels and a reform of the global climate finance framework (Australia Institute, 2023).

We evaluate the net zero target as: Poor

Australia included its target to achieve net zero by 2050 in its updated NDCs in October 2021 and June 2022. The 2022 Climate Change Act enshrined the 2050 target in the law.

Australia is preparing a new Net Zero Plan. Its current long-term emissions reduction plan for achieving net zero emissions by 2050, submitted to the UNFCCC as a Long-Term Strategy (LTS), was published in October 2021. The current strategy only reduces emissions by 60% below 2005 levels, excluding LULUCF and offsets. Overall, the plan relies heavily on the future development of low-emissions technology and domestic and international offsets with no plans to phase out coal, curb fossil fuel exports, or hold heavy polluters accountable.

The Climate Change Authority (CCA) released its Sectoral Pathways Review in September 2024, which presents emissions reductions pathways to net zero by 2050 encompassing all sectors across the Australian economy. Together with CCA’s forthcoming 2035 targets advice, the sectoral pathways will be used by the government to inform its updated Net Zero Plan.

Further analysis of Australia’s net zero emissions can be found here.