Canada

Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Global warming potentials

The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for all figures and time series. Assessments completed prior to December 2018 (COP24) used GWP values from the IPCC’s Second Assessment Report (SAR).

Historical emissions

Historical emissions data wereobtained from the UNFCCC GHG inventory and cover the period to 2017 (Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2019).

Pledges and targets

Pledges were calculated from historical data obtained from the UNFCCC GHG inventory (Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2019).

For the 2020 target, we calculated the target by excluding LULUCF in the base year (2005) before applying the 17% decrease and then subtracted projected LULUCF accounting contributions for 2020 from the government’s most recent projections (Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2018a). Canada will use the “Reference Level approach” to LULUCF accounting (Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2018a). The forestry sector is projected to provide an accounting contribution of 19-41 MtCO₂e in 2020, depending on harvest levels. For comparability between countries, the CAT presents all targets excluding LULUCF.

For the 2030 target, we follow a parallel approach, in which we calculated the target by excluding LULUCF in the base year (2005) before applying the 30% decrease and then subtracted projected LULUCF accounting contributions for 2030 from the government’s most recent projections (Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2018a). Emissions excluding LULUCF were 730 MtCO₂e in 2005 and the forestry sector is projected to provide an accounting contribution of 7-46 MtCO₂e in 2030. The range reflects different assumptions made about harvest rates.

Current policy projections

The current policy projections from 2018 to 2030 were obtained from the greenhouse gas emission projections updated annually by the Government of Canada which were then harmonised to historical data, as the CAT used the most recent inventory (with 2017 data) and the projections are based on historical data to 2016 (Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2018a). The report presents projections considering future impacts of policy measures enacted as of September 2018 (For details of the policies included, see Table A10 in Annex 1 of the report: Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2018a). The CAT assesses the policies contained in the ‘Reference Case’ under two sets of assumptions: slow growth/low emissions and fast growth/high emissions, reflecting different assumptions about oil and gas prices and GDP growth rate.

Planned policy projections

The planned policy projections from 2018 to 2030 are based on Environment and Climate Change Canada’s “Additional Measures” Case (Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2018a). As with the current policy projections, these figures are harmonised to historical data, as the CAT used the most recent inventory (with 2017 data) and the projections are based on historical data to 2016. This scenario includes the federal carbon pricing backstop, the Clean Fuel Standard and some elements of the Low Carbon Economy Fund (For details of the policies included, see Table A10 in Annex 1 of the report: Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2018a). It also includes 13 MtCO₂e of credits from the Western Climate Initiative in 2030.