The CAT rates Canada’s NDC as “Insufficient”. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Canada’s climate commitment in 2030 is not consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement, and is instead consistent with warming between 2°C and 3°C. If all countries were to follow Canada’s approach, warming could reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. This means Canada’s climate commitment is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort, and is notconsistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort.
The CAT ratings are based on climate commitments in NDCs. If the CAT were to rate Canada’s projected emissions levels in 2030 under current policies, we would rate Canada “Highly insufficient”, indicating that Canada’s current policies in 2030 are not consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement, and are instead consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C: if all countries were to follow Canada’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C. This means Canada’s current policies are not in line with any interpretation of a “fair” approach to the former 2°C goal, let alone the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
Further information about the risks and impacts associated with the temperature levels of each of the categories is available here.
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