Canada

Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming of greater than 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming over 2°C and up to 3°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with holding warming below, but not well below, 2°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. No “role model” rating has been developed for the sectors.

1.5°C Compatible< 1.5°C World

Summary table

Paris Agreement targets

Canada states in its NDC that it will pursue an economy-wide target to reduce GHG emissions to 30% below 2005 levels by 2030. A 30% reduction of 2005 levels excluding LULUCF equates to 511 MtCO₂e and is equivalent to a 15% reduction below 1990s.

Canada has now quantified the projected extent of its LULUCF contribution towards meeting its 2030 target, though it noted that these figures should be viewed as ‘preliminary and provisional’ (Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2018a, p. 33). Canada will apply the “Reference Level Approach” to LULUCF accounting. The accounting contribution could range from 7-46 MtCO₂e depending on if harvest rates are high or low. When credits from LULUCF accounting are excluded, Canada’s total emissions in 2030 would be 518-557 MtCO₂e, which represents a 24-29% reduction below 2005 levels or 7-14% reduction below 1990 levels.

This target emissions level corresponds to a CAT rating of “Insufficient.” In past assessments, the CAT has downgraded Canada’s NDC rating due to the lack of clarity around the extent to which the country would rely on its forestry sector sink to meet its target. Given the clarity on the LULUCF accounting contribution, the CAT no longer downgrades Canada’s rating.

It is worth noting that Canada uses “the IPCC production approach” to account for Harvested Wood Products (HWPs). Under this approach, emissions associated with wood from forest harvest and forest conversion activities are included in the country’s GHG inventory, irrespective of whether the products stay within the country or are exported. Accounting for HWPs must be performed in a consistent and compatible manner across countries so that accounting of imported and exported HWPs is complete, and emissions are not excluded from inventories (Macey, Hare, & Chen, 2011).

Canada excludes emissions from natural disturbances (e.g. forest fires and insect outbreaks).

Canada has indicated that it may also use international credits to meet its target (Carr, 2018). Considering the upward trajectory of the upper bound of the current policy projection, Canada may need to use a large quantity of international credits to meet its target. It has included 13 MtCO₂e in credits from the Western Climate Initiative into some of its projections and is part of the World Bank’s Transformative Carbon Asset Facility, an initiative aimed at a piloting carbon market mechanism under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement (World Bank, n.d.).

2020 pledge and Kyoto Protocol

Canada's Kyoto Protocol target for the first commitment period 2008–2012 was a reduction of 6% below 1990 levels. However, in December 2011, Canada withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol.

Canada's Copenhagen pledge aims to reduce emissions by 17% below 2005 levels by 2020. The Copenhagen commitment aligned Canada’s level of ambition to the United States, which also has a target of 17% reduction in emissions from 2005 levels by 2020. This contribution from LULUCF accounting towards meeting this target is estimated to range from 19-41 MtCO₂e depending on harvest rates are high or low. When credits from LULUCF accounting are excluded, Canada’s total emissions in 2020 would be 625-647 MtCO₂e, which represents a 11-14% reduction below 2005 levels or 4-7% increase above 1990 levels.

Long-term goal

In 2016, Canada proposed a mid-century, long-term low greenhouse gas development strategy (Government of Canada, 2016a). This strategy contains an emissions reduction pathway that is consistent with net emissions falling by 80% in 2050 from 2005 levels. The strategy documentation indicates that this target equates to a 65% reduction in emissions below 2005 levels excluding LULUCF, with the remainder to be achieved through sequestration in the land sector and international credits (Government of Canada, 2016a). Canada intends to regularly update this long-term strategy as national circumstances change and low-GHG technologies evolve.