We rate Chile’s unconditional NDC target “Highly Insufficient” The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Chile’s climate commitment in 2030 is not consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement, and is instead consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C: if all countries were to follow Chile’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C. This means Chile’s climate commitment is not in line with any interpretation of a “fair” approach to the former 2°C goal, let alone the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
Current and planned policies
The CAT ratings are based on climate commitments in NDCs. If the CAT were to rate Chile’s projected emissions levels in 2030 under current policies, we would rate Chile “Highly insufficient.”
Our rating on Chile’s planned policies, which in comparison with current policies includes a full coal-phase out by 2040 assuming linear retirement of capacities, would be “insufficient.” This indicates that Chile’s planned policies in 2030 are not yet consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement, and are instead consistent with warming between 2°C and 3°C: if all countries were to follow Chile’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.
Most effort sharing approaches lead to similar levels of emissions allowances for Chile. The upper (less stringent) end of the “Insufficient” range is determined by effort sharing approaches focusing on staged emissions reductions. To be in line with the most stringent approaches, which focus on capability, Chile would need even further emissions reductions.
Further information about the risks and impacts associated with the temperature levels of each of the categories.