Chile

This assessment includes our policy analysis from 30 July 2020 translated into our new rating methodology without new analysis of Chile’s climate policies since then, except the NDC update submitted in April 2021. We will fully analyse Chile in the coming months and the rating may change.

The CAT rates Chile’s climate targets and policies as “Insufficient”. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Chile’s climate policies and commitments need substantial improvements to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.

Chile has submitted two climate targets for 2030, an unconditional target, which it plans to achieve with its own resources, and a more ambitious one, conditional to international support. We rate Chile’s 2030 internationally supported target as “Almost sufficient” when compared to modelled domestic pathways. While this climate target represents a significant improvement over Chile’s previous one (from 2017), it is still not stringent enough to limit warming to 1.5°C and needs further improvements. We rate Chile’s unconditional 2030 target as “Insufficient” when compared with its fair-share contribution to climate action. To achieve its 2030 climate targets, Chile needs to enhance its current policies and action.

We rate Chile’s climate policies and action as “Insufficient” in 2030 when compared to modelled domestic pathways. Chile’s policies and action in 2030—based on our assessment from 30 July 2020—lead to rising, rather than falling, emissions and are not at all consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. An “Insufficient” rating translates to a global temperature rise over 2°C and up to 3°C by the end of the century. Chile’s projections from policies and action will be updated in the coming months, and Chile’s rating could change.

According to our assessment from 30 July 2020, based on a projected drop in GDP in 2020 due to COVID-19, Chile’s emissions projections for 2030 under current policies could be 3% - 11% lower than our previous assessments. Projected emissions for 2030 under current policies remain well above the 2030 unconditional NDC target. If Chile goes ahead with implementing planned policies such as the 2050 Energy Strategy, the coal phase-out and the electromobility strategy, it could reach (and perhaps overachieve) the new NDC target for 2030. If it were to implement all its planned policies, Chile could peak its emissions in 2023 ─ two years earlier than the proposed peak year of 2025 ─ which would be a remarkable achievement and set up the country as a frontrunner on climate action.

If we were to rate Chile’s planned policies, we would rate them “Almost sufficient” and it would still require additional measures to be in line with a 1.5°C Paris-compatible pathway (when compared to modelled domestic pathways and the fair share contribution).

Full policies and action analysis can be found here.

We rate Chile’s 2030 internationally supported target – a reduction of up to 45% in net emissions by 2030, subject to international support– “Almost sufficient” when compared with modelled domestic emissions pathways. The “Almost sufficient” rating indicates that Chile’s domestic target in 2030 is not yet consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit but could be, with moderate improvements. If all countries were to follow Chile’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C. To improve its rating and be consistent with the 1.5°C temperature limit, Chile could increase the ambition of their conditional 2030 climate equivalent to an absolute emissions limit of 69 MtCO2e excl. LULUCF in 2030 and, if necessary, outline the international support that it would need to achieve it.

Our methods do not provide a clear answer for the need for finance for Chile. On balance the CAT methodology shows that provision of a small but important amount of international support is consistent with the wide range of literature on fair share contributions to meeting the Paris Agreement's goals.

We rate Chile’s 2030 unconditional reduction target as “Insufficient” when compared to its fair-share contribution to climate action. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Chile’s fair share target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. Chile’s target is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort, and is not consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. If all countries were to follow Chile’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

Over the last 20 years, Chile had an average LULUCF sinks whose magnitude was more than 20% of all other emissions. Chile should work toward maintaining this LULUCF sink. For more information about forestry activities in Chile, please see the policies and action section.

We evaluate Chile’s net zero target as “Acceptable”. Chile’s currently proposed net zero target for 2050 covers most key elements. Chile’s target covers all sectors and gases, communicates strategic goals and emissions targets per sector, and provides a detailed methodological framework. Notably, Chile underpins these sector-specific ambitions with detailed emissions pathway analysis. While Chile does not actively outline any plans reply on reductions and removals outside its borders, future iteration of its NDC could explicitly rule out international credits.

Chile is seeking to reach GHG neutrality by 2050. Chile will heavily rely on negative emissions by forests to reach its net zero target, expecting carbon sinks to contribute as much as 50% of the emissions reduction required to reach the 2050 neutrality goal. This can pose a risk, given the high chances of carbon loss through deforestation or natural disturbance and eventual competition for land.