China

Critically Insufficient4°C+
World
NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C.
Highly insufficient< 4°C
World
NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C.
Insufficient< 3°C
World
NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.
2°C Compatible< 2°C
World
NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit.
1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C
World
This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
Role model<< 1.5°C
World
This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Economy-wide

In the CAT current policy projections, China will reach a GHG emissions level (excl. LULUCF) of between 13.2 and 13.5 GtCO2e/yr in 2020 and 14.4–15.8 GtCO2e/yr in 2030. A total of 9.2–9.4 GtCO2e/yr in 2020 and 9.4–10.8 GtCO2e/yr in 2030 are energy-related CO2 emissions. This is an increase in total GHG emissions of 4%–6% above 2015 levels by 2020 and 14%–25% by 2030.

This means that according to our assessment, China will meet its 2020 pledge and its NDC targets, but still be above current emissions levels. The projected increase in emissions is mostly related to emissions of gases other than CO2, because in the lower range of the current policy projections, overall CO2 emissions flatten between 2015 and 2020. China’s chief climate negotiator, Xie Zhenhua, has expressed the opinion that China could meet its 2030 target early (Xu, Stanway, & Daly, 2018). CAT analysis confirms that, based on current GDP projections, China is indeed likely to meet the carbon intensity target of its 2030 pledge early, and could also reach peak CO2 emissions early under optimistic assumptions.

China is implementing a range of policies in most sectors. Most significant is its commitment to limit coal use, and a strong increase of renewable and low-carbon energy. In December 2017, China announced a new national emissions trading system, which will initially apply only to the power sector, but may be expanded to other sectors in the future. The overall emissions impact of the system is not yet clear, as many operational details are still to be shared, including the start date and the level and distribution of emissions allowances (Jotzo et al., 2018).

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