We rate China’s climate commitments in 2030 “Highly insufficient.” We base our rating of China’s NDC on its commitment of having 10% gas and 20% non-fossil fuels in the primary energy mix by 2030. On this basis, the target falls into the “Highly insufficient“ range. Were we to base the NDC rating on the carbon intensity target only, it would also be “Highly insufficient,” but the absolute emissions level of this element of the NDC is highly uncertain as it depends on GDP growth.
The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that China’s climate commitment for post-2020 is not consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement, and is instead consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C: if all countries were to follow China’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C. This means China’s climate commitment is not in line with any interpretation of a “fair” approach to the former 2°C goal, let alone the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
If the CAT were to rate China’s projected emissions levels in 2030 under current policies, China would also be rated “Highly insufficient.”
Further information about the risks and impacts associated with the temperature levels of each of the categories.