China

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Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Summary Table

Paris Agreement targets

On 3 September 2016, China ratified the Paris Agreement and submitted its NDC to the UNFCCC, which includes a number of elements:

Peak CO2 emissions by 2030, or earlier if possible;
Increase the share of non-fossil energy sources in the total primary energy supply to around 20% by 2030;
Lower the carbon intensity of GDP by 60% to 65% below 2005 levels by 2030;
Increase the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic metres, compared to 2005 levels.

Among measures to implement enhanced actions on climate change, it also lists the following elements:

Increase the share of natural gas in the total primary energy supply to around 10% by 2020;
Proposed reductions in the production of HCFC22 (35% below 2010 levels by 2020 and 67.5% by 2025) and “controlling” HFC23 production by 2020.

China’s environmental minister Li Ganjie has indicated that China will update its NDC by 2020 (Darby, 2019b).

2020 pledge

China’s 2020 pledge consists of the following elements:

Overall reduction of CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 40–45% below 2005 levels by 2020;
Increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 15% by 2020;
Increase forest coverage by 40 million hectares and forest stock volume by 1.3 billion cubic metres by 2020 from 2005 levels.

We analysed the effects of all these targets – if achieved - on emissions, including the non-fossil target for 2020 and 2030. For details of how we quantify China’s NDC targets, please see the assumptions section.

Long-term strategy

China has not yet submitted a long-term strategy to the UNFCCC, but China’s environmental minister Li Ganjie has indicated that China will communicate its long-term strategy by 2020 (Darby, 2019a).