China

Choose update to view

Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

List of references

Baker, J. (2018, June 18). Solar Leader China is Slashing its Subsidies on Solar Power -- What You Need to Know. Forbes. Retrieved from https://www.forbes.com/sites/jillbaker/2018/06/18/solar-leader-china-is-slashing-its-subsidies-on-solar-power-what-you-need-to-know/#7ee0002b2f9a
Bloomberg News. (2018, September 26). China Steps Up its Push into Clean Energy. Bloomberg. Retrieved from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-26/china-sets-out-new-clean-energy-goals-penalties-in-revised-plan
BloombergNEF. (2018). New Energy Outlook 2018.
Boden, T., & Andres, B. (2016). National CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning, Cement Manufacture, and Gas Flaring: 1751-2013. Retrieved February 20, 2017, from http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ndp030/nation.1751_2013.ems
Carbon Pulse. (2019, March 31). Chinese official hints at 2020 ETS start. Carbon Pulse. Retrieved from https://carbon-pulse.com/72095/
Chen, A. (2018, February 5). China’s soaring natural gas output unable to meet demand set loose in pollution fight. Reuters. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-pollution-gas-production/chinas-soaring-natural-gas-output-unable-to-meet-demand-set-loose-in-pollution-fight-idUSKBN1FP006
China Daily. (2015, June 1). Made in China 2025 strategy for auto industry. Retrieved from http://english.gov.cn/policies/infographics/2015/06/02/content_281475119391820.htm
China National Renewable Energy Centre. (2017). China Renewable Energy Outlook 2017. Retrieved from http://boostre.cnrec.org.cn/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/CREO-2017-EN-20171113-1.pdf
ChinaFAQs. (2016). Building Energy Efficiency in China: Policies and Markets. Retrieved from http://www.chinafaqs.org/files/chinainfo/Building Energy Efficiency Fact Sheet_0.pdf
Climate Action Tracker. (2016). The ten most important short-term steps to limit warming to 1.5°C. Retrieved from https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/the-ten-most-important-short-term-steps-to-limit-warming-to-15c/
Climate Analytics. (2016). Implications of the Paris Agreement for Coal Use in the Power Sector. Retrieved from https://climateanalytics.org/media/climateanalytics-coalreport_nov2016_1.pdf
Congressional Research Service. (2019). The Made in China 2025 Initiative: Economic Implications for the United States. Retrieved from https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/IF10964.pdf
Darby, M. (2019a, April). EU, China agree to work together on clean energy. Climate Home News.
Darby, M. (2019b, April 10). EU, China agree to work together on clean energy. Climate Home News. Retrieved from https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/04/10/eu-china-agree-work-together-clean-energy/
Enerdata. (2016). China confirms ban on new coal-fired power plant construction until 2018. Retrieved September 27, 2016, from http://www.enerdata.net/enerdatauk/press-and-publication/energy-news-001/china-confirms-ban-new-coal-fired-power-plant-construction-until-2018_37678.html
Environmental Investigation Agency. (2018). Blowing It: Illegal Production and Use of Banned CFC-11 in China’s Foam Blowing Industry. Retrieved from https://content.eia-global.org/posts/documents/000/000/761/original/Blowing-It_CFC11_Report_EIA.pdf?1531089183
Feng, H. (2018a, July 6). China releases 2020 action plan for air pollution. Chinadialogue. Retrieved from https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/10711-China-releases-2-2-action-plan-for-air-pollution
Feng, H. (2018b, August 7). China restarts coal plant construction after two-year freeze. Climate Home News. Retrieved from http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/08/07/china-restarts-coal-plant-construction-two-year-freeze/
Frankfurt School-UNEP Centre/BNEF. (2018). Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2018. Retrieved from https://drive.google.com/file/d/1SmhaI-WAcmEMqR8R9oL5Fxn0cZ0kfY8Z/view
Gallagher, K. S., Zhang, F., Orvis, R., Rissman, J., & Liu, Q. (2019). Assessing the policy gaps for achieving China’s climate targets in the Paris Agreement. Nature Communications, 10. Retrieved from https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-09159-0
GBPN. (2018). China. Retrieved September 28, 2018, from http://www.gbpn.org/activities/china
Gieseke, R., & Gütschow, J. (2018). UNFCCC Emissions data from the Detailed Data By Party interface (Version 2018-07-02). Retrieved from https://zenodo.org/record/1310702
Gütschow, J., Jeffery, L., Gieseke, R., & Gebel, R. (2018). The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1850-2015). V.1.2. GFZ Data Services. https://doi.org/http://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2018.003
Harada, I. (2019, March 6). Beijing drops “Made in China 2025” from government report. Nikkei Asian Review. Retrieved from https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/China-People-s-Congress/Beijing-drops-Made-in-China-2025-from-government-report
Hua, F., Wang, L., Fisher, B., Zheng, X., Wang, X., Yu, D., … Wilcove, D. (2018). Tree plantations displacing native forests: The nature and drivers of apparent forest recovery on former croplands in Southwestern China from 2000 to 2015. Biological Conservation, 222, 113–124. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jianguo_Zhu2/publication/325313456_Tree_plantations_displacing_native_forests_The_nature_and_drivers_of_apparent_forest_recovery_on_former_croplands_in_Southwestern_China_from_2000_to_2015/links/5b05252645851588c6d49c1
Hua, F., Xu, J., & Wilcove, D. (2017). A New Opportunity to Recover Native Forests in China. Conservation Letters. Retrieved from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/conl.12396
IEA. (2016a). Energy Technology Perspectives 2016. Paris, France: International Energy Agency.
IEA. (2016b). Energy Technology Perspectives 2016. Paris, France: International Energy Agency. Retrieved from http://www.iea.org/etp/etp2016/
IEA. (2018a). CO2 emissions from fuel combustion (2018 edition). Paris, France.
IEA. (2018b). Global Energy & CO2 Status Report 2017. Retrieved from http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GECO2017.pdf
IEA. (2018c). World Energy Balances 2018. International Energy Agency.
IEA. (2018d). World Energy Outlook 2018. Retrieved from https://www.iea.org/weo2018/
IMF. (2017). World Economic Outlook (October 2017) - Real GDP growth. Retrieved March 1, 2018, from http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/KAZ
IPCC. (2018). Global Warming of 1.5°C: Summary for Policymakers. Retrieved from http://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_final.pdf
Irle, R. (2019). China NEV Sales for 2018. Retrieved May 13, 2019, from http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/china/
Jotzo, F., Karplus, V., Grubb, M., Loeschel, A., Neuhoff, K., Wu, L., & Teng, F. (2018). China’s emissions trading takes steps towards big ambitions. Nature Climate Change, 8, 260–271. Retrieved from https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0130-0.epdf?author_access_token=Xi5UzVwwhX6tiJ5u301kfdRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0Mgl1oK5YdFJyrQdS-KFGiJCU7UMJKtWYtn6OKSpg9qYSKqj0e1wf6V-fEKd2EwGLXjdwj8vG71sbe8oMdBymvlI9730VF1is-t6XdIQ2Kx1g%3D%3D
JRC, & PBL. (2014). EDGARv4.2FT2012. European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL). Retrieved from http://edgar.jrc.ec.europe.eu
Korsbakken, J. I., Andrew, R., & Peters, G. (2019, March 5). Guest post: China’s CO2 emissions grew slower than expected in 2018. Carbon Brief. Retrieved from https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-chinas-co2-emissions-grew-slower-than-expected-in-2018?utm_campaign=Carbon Brief Daily Briefing&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue newsletter
Korsbakken, J. I., & Peters, G. (2017). A closer look at China’s stalled carbon emissions. Retrieved March 30, 2017, from http://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-closer-look-chinas-stalled-carbon-emissions
Le Quéré, C. et al. (2018). Global Carbon Budget 2018. Earth System Science Data, 10, 2141–2194. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018
National Bureau of Statistics of China. (2017). China Statistical Yearbook 2017. Retrieved from http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2017/indexeh.htm
National Bureau of Statistics of China. (2019). Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2018 National Economic and Social Development. Retrieved from http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/201902/t20190228_1651335.html
NDRC. (2016). 能源发展“十三五”规划. Retrieved from http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/zcfb/zcfbghwb/201701/W020170117350627940556.pdf
NEA. (2018). 煤炭也能烧出低排放.
Platts. (2018). Factbox: China’s 2018 targets for energy and steel sectors. Retrieved from https://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/singapore/factbox-chinas-2018-targets-for-energy-and-steel-27936461
Qi, Y., Stern, N., Wu, T., Lu, J., & Green, F. (2016). China’s post-coal growth. Nature Geoscience. https://doi.org/doi:10.1038/ngeo2777
Rong, Z. (2018, August 5). China’s efforts to protect the ozone layer. The Guardian. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/05/chinas-efforts-to-protect-the-ozone-layer
Shearer, C., Brown, M., & Buckley, T. (2019). China at a crossroads: Continued support for coal power erodes country’s clean energy leadership. Retrieved from http://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/China-at-a-Crossroads_January-2019.pdf
Shearer, C., Mathew-Shah, N., Myllyvirta, L., Yu, A., & Nace, T. (2019). Boom and Bust 2019: Tracking the global coal plant pipeline. Retrieved from https://endcoal.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/BoomAndBust_2019_r6.pdf
Shirouzu, N., & Jourdan, A. (2017, September 28). China sets 2019 deadline for automakers to meet green-car sales targets. Reuters. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-china-electric/china-sets-2019-deadline-for-automakers-to-meet-green-car-sales-targets-idUSKCN1C30ZL
UNFCCC. (2018). Greenhouse gas inventory data - detailed data by party - China. Retrieved from https://di.unfccc.int/detailed_data_by_party
US Environmental Protection Agency. (2012). Global Anthropogenic Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 1990 - 2030. Retrieved from http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/EPAactivities/economics/nonco2projections.html
Worldsteel Association. (2018). Steel Statistical Yearbook 2018. Retrieved from https://www.worldsteel.org/en/dam/jcr:e5a8eda5-4b46-4892-856b-00908b5ab492/SSY_2018.pdf
Xinhua. (2017). Beijing’s last large coal-fired power plant suspends operations. Retrieved March 31, 2017, from http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-03/18/c_136139334.htm
Xu, M., Stanway, D., & Daly, T. (2018, May 23). China could meet emissions pledge early; carbon market on track: officials. Reuters. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-climatechange/china-could-meet-emissions-pledge-early-carbon-market-on-track-officials-idUSKCN1IO1LD
Yang, L., & He, H. (2018). China’s Stage VI emissions standard for heavy-duty vehicles (final rule). Retrieved from https://www.theicct.org/publications/china’s-stage-vi-emissions-standard-heavy-duty-vehicles-final-rule