We rate the EU's climate commitments (NDC) "Insufficient". The “Insufficient” rating indicates that the EU's climate commitment in 2030 is not consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement, and is instead consistent with warming between 2°C and 3°C. If all countries were to follow the EU’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. This means the EU’s climate commitment is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort, and is not consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort.
Based on the available scenarios we rate the EU's current policy pathways as “Highly insufficient” in terms of meeting the Paris Agreement's temperature goal. However, this quantification does not reflect the quantification of the recent political agreements on higher energy efficiency and renewable energy targets.
The CAT ratings are based on climate commitments in (I)NDCs. If the CAT were to rate EU’s projected emissions levels in 2017 under current policies, we would rate the EU “Highly insufficient”, indicating that EU’s current policies in 2017 are not consistent with holding warming to below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement, and are instead consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C: if all countries were to follow EU’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C. This means EU’s current policies are not in line with any interpretation of a “fair” approach to the former 2°C goal, let alone the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. If the projected emissions levels followed the “planned policy” pathway, the rating would move to “Insufficient”.
Further information about the risks and impacts associated with the temperature levels of each of the categories.