Historical emissions are taken from the PRIMAP data for the period 1990-2018 (Gütschow, J.; Günther, A.; Jeffery, L.; Gieseke, 2021).
We used a variety of sources and methods to estimate the emissions drop in 2020 due to the pandemic. For the energy sector, we used 2019 and 2020 historical data for energy sector CO2 emissions available on the IEA’s website, harmonised to our historical timeseries and assumed the same growth rates for the rest of the sector’s emissions (which are less than 4%).
We assume no impact from the pandemic on agriculture, waste and other emissions and have used the five-year historical trend.
LULUCF emissions are taken directly from India’s third Biennial Report (MoEFCC, 2021). These estimates are calculated using global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC’s second assessment report. We have not converted these into AR4 values as the contribution from non-CO2 gases is negligible.
NDC and other targets
The assessment of the 2020 pledge is based on our estimate for 2020 emissions (as described above) and 2020 GDP data from the World Bank (in million USD2012 (MER))(World Bank, 2021a).
The 2020 pledge excludes agriculture emissions. After calculating the emissions reduction range excluding agriculture emissions, we add those emissions back to the total so that it is comparable to our historical emissions estimate.
We have revised both our historical time series and GDP estimates in this update. Compared to our September 2020 assessment, the data shows lower emissions and higher GDP in the base year (2005) and higher emissions with lower GDP in 2020, which accounts for the significant difference in our estimates of India’s target.
Emissions intensity target
We estimate 2030 GDP using IMF GDP growth estimates for 2021-2026 and WEO2020 GDP growth rates for 2027-2030 and World Bank GDP data for 2020(IEA, 2020b; IMF, 2021; World Bank, 2021b). Our 2030 emissions estimate is based on our projection for current policies (see below for details).
We include emissions from Agriculture in this target estimate as the NDC lacks a clear statement that it is to be excluded (this in contrast to past CAT assessments, where we assumed consistency with the 2020 pledge formulation). If agriculture emissions are excluded, the target range would be much lower (4.5-4.6GtCO2e) than our current estimate (5.3-5.4 GtCO2e).
40% non-fossil installed capacity target
The 40% capacity target is based on the updated current policy pathway and is calculated by replacing non-fossil power with fossil power.
Under current policies, India is on track to achieve around 60-65% non-fossil installed capacity by 2030. If, conforming with India’s NDC, only 40% non-fossil capacity was achieved in 2030, this would result in substantially higher emissions (on the order of 0.7-1GtCO2e). We did not have detailed information about the installed capacity in the IEA web data that we used for our energy sector emissions and so used WEO2020 data and assumed that the capacity factor remains stable under a higher share of non-fossils and the range would be proportional. Adjusting the installed capacity to match the 40% target and assuming the same generation factor results in a slightly lower or higher electricity generation in 2030, which we have not attempted to correct.
Current policy projections
Upper end of scenario range: We use the growth rates from the IEA’s stated policies scenario for India’s energy CO2 emission as a proxy for all energy sector emissions (non-CO2 emissions were less than 4% of energy sector emissions in 2018). The projections on the IEA website (as of June 2021) are slightly higher than in WEO2020 and we use those for the upper bound of our energy sector estimate (IEA, 2020b, 2021c).
Lower end of scenario range: We use the growth rates from CO2 emissions projections from India’s Central Electricity Authority (CEA)’s Optimal Generation Capacity Mix report for power sector (CEA, 2020) and WEO2020 for non-power sector CO2 emissions for the lower bound of our estimate (IEA, 2020c). Under the CEA’s scenario, India meets it 175GW RE target in March 2022 and exceeds its 2030 target (incl. large hydro). In 2029, it has over 450GW of new RE (including battery storage) and over 500GW including large hydro. Emissions data for the power sector CO2 emissions was provided for 2017 and 2029, we have inferred data for the intervening years and assumed a 2028/2029 growth rate for 2030.
It is highly unlikely that India will meet its 2022 RE target, however the installed capacity thermal capacity assumed under the report is also slightly lower than expected, thus we have not attempted to modify the emissions estimate. We use the growth rates from the IEA’s website data for its stated policies scenario to replicate the rebound in emissions in 2021, but otherwise follow the growth rates for CEA power / WEO2020 non-power for the rest of the decade.
Note India reports data on a Q2 to Q1 of the following year basis. For the sake of simplicity, we allot the data for a fiscal year (e.g. April 2021-March 2022) to the calendar year (e.g. 2021).
The IEA anticipates that there could be a prolonged reduction in industrial activity compared to pre-pandemic projection estimates (IEA, 2021a). We use their energy demand projections of industry in the WEO2020 as a proxy to estimate industry emissions to 2030 (IEA, 2020b). As data is only available for 2019 and 2025, we use IMF GDP growth rates to recreate a drop in 2020 and rebound in 2021 and then interpolate the data to 2025 (IMF, 2021).
Agriculture, Waste and other emissions
We use the US EPA non-CO2 emissions projection growth rates for the agriculture and waste sectors as proxies to estimate emissions in those sectors until 2030 (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2019). We also use waste growth rates to estimate the increase in other emissions.
Global warming potentials
The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for all its figures and time series, unless otherwise stated. Assessments completed prior to December 2018 (COP24) used GWP values from the Second Assessment Report (SAR).