Japan

While its greenhouse gas emissions have fallen to their lowest since 2013, Japan is still set to miss its 2030 target if it does not implement more ambitious policies. The government’s climate agenda continues to place more emphasis on economic growth and energy security, rather than ambitious decarbonisation efforts. Japan’s latest Green Transformation strategy, the GX Basic Policy, does not provide concrete emissions reduction targets; instead, it promotes the development of so-called “clean coal” technologies in the power sector, a move inconsistent with pathways required to limit global warming to below 1.5°C.

The government plans to update both its NDC and Basic Energy Plan. The new Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, should seize this opportunity to prioritise the scale-up of renewable energy and move rapidly away from coal once and for all. The CAT continues to rate Japan’s overall climate targets and action as “Insufficient”.

Japan’s 2030 emission reduction target is not aligned with the Paris Agreement and remains “Insufficient”. Japan aims to reduce emissions by 46% by 2030 below 2013 levels (and 50% below as an aspirational target), a target that still falls short of the more than 60% reduction below 2013 levels that a CAT analysis estimates as 1.5°C-compatible.

The GX Basic Policy suggests the government is still reluctant to take the measures necessary to decarbonise its economy and achieve net zero emissions by 2050, as would be implied by its current net zero target. The new strategy provides no details on the expected emission reductions for 2030 and 2050. There are also concerns that the carbon pricing and emissions trading schemes envisioned by the government will not be effective in reducing Japan’s emissions. It remains unclear whether the emissions trading scheme planned for 2026 will still be based on voluntary participation, and the carbon levy, which will only be implemented in 2028, is expected to be set a low level.

In a significant policy shift, Japan has unveiled plans to build new generation nuclear reactors, as part of the GX Basic Policy. Despite this reversal, many regulatory and economic hurdles to new nuclear reactors remain, making it unlikely that they will be operational before 2035-2040. Renewable energy deployment continues to take a back seat, as the government prioritises nuclear energy expansion and the development of so called “clean coal” technologies.

The GX Basic Policy also puts a strong emphasis on the need to develop Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies, and ammonia and hydrogen co-firing in the power sector, in Japan and overseas. However, these technologies would not be needed to decarbonise Japan’s energy sector if Japan fully harnessed the potential of its renewable energy sources, which are much cheaper in comparison and have a much lower environmental footprint.

In April 2024, G7 countries agreed to phase out unabated coal power generation by 2035, an unambitious timeline for developed countries which should aim for a 2030 phase-out at the latest. The pledge gives leeway to Japan to keep relying on coal power plants with ammonia co-firing power and “high efficiency” coal power, which cannot be considered "abated" coal.

The Japanese government is pushing for continued investment in upstream fossil gas and LNG, claiming it can be a transitional fossil fuel. Japan is also advocating for further development of LNG infrastructure in other countries, to sustain its large flow of imports. However, such investment further contributes to locking in carbon-intensive developments: Recent scientific literature highlights that there is no room for investment in new oil, gas, and coal activities if global warming is to be limited to 1.5°C, and such investments are in stark contrast to what is needed to meet Paris Agreement goals.

In policy documents, the Japanese government consistently uses terms such as “clean coal”, “green transformation”, “electrified vehicles” and “clean hydrogen”. However, these terms are undefined, often misleading and strengthen a harmful narrative, serving as a smokescreen to hide the government’s intention to keep relying on fossil fuels.

Japan’s GHG emissions fell to a record low in 2022, mainly due to reduced energy consumption in the industry and commercial sectors. Without additional measures, Japan’s current policies and actions will lead to emission levels of 31% to 37% below 2013 levels in 2030, excluding LULUCF. This falls short of Japan’s NDC target, let alone the 60% below 2013 levels in 2030 needed to be in line with keeping warming below 1.5°C.

The government is currently in the process of drafting its 2035 NDC and its Basic Energy Plan, which is the overarching document governing Japan’s energy policy. To improve its climate targets and action rating, Japan could:

• Commit to a full coal phase-out in a timeline consistent with pathways required to limit global warming to below 1.5°C
• Set new electricity mix targets for 2035 in the new Basic Energy Plan in line with the upcoming NDC target year
• Prioritise the scale-up of renewable energy capacity and strengthen related targets
• Strengthen its EV target to phase out all fossil-fuel passenger (ICE) cars from new sales by 2035.
• Stop public financing of fossil fuel projects overseas and stop the international promotion of “clean coal” technologies.
• Strengthen its 2030 target ambition level in line with the Paris Agreement

Despite Japan’s overall lack of ambition, there have been a few positive developments worth highlighting, including some sub-national actions:

• The adoption of the “Renewable Energy Installation Standards”, a regulation requiring construction companies to install rooftop solar panels on new buildings in Tokyo, from 2025.
• The amendment of the Act on Sea Area Utilisation for Renewable energy to accelerate the development of offshore wind power, particularly floating wind turbines.

The CAT rates each country’s targets and policies against (1) its fair share contribution to climate change mitigation considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability and equality, and (2) what is technically and economically feasible using modelled domestic pathways which in absence of a better method are based on global least-cost climate change mitigation.

Comparing a country’s fair share ranges and modelled domestic pathways provides insights into which governments should provide climate finance and which should receive it. Developed countries with large responsibility for historical emissions and high per-capita emissions, must not only implement ambitious climate action domestically but must also support climate action in developing countries with lower historical responsibility, capability, and lower per-capita emissions.

The CAT rates Japan’s climate targets, policies and finance as “Insufficient”. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Japan’s climate policies and commitments need substantial improvements to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.

Japan is not meeting its fair share contribution to climate change mitigation. Japan would need to improve its rating by increasing the ambition of its domestic emissions target, as well as providing and mobilising increased levels of financial support for further emissions reductions in other countries.

We rate Japan’s NDC target as “Insufficient” compared to its fair share and its climate finance contribution as “Highly Insufficient”. While considering modelled domestic pathways, Japan’s domestic NDC target and its policies and action are rated as “Insufficient”.

To improve its rating, Japan should strengthen its domestic emissions reduction target adopt policies necessary to reach this goal, and significantly increase its support for climate action in developing countries in line with its fair share contribution to climate change mitigation.

The CAT rates Japan’s policies and action against modelled domestic pathways as “Insufficient”. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Japan’s climate policies and action need substantial improvements to be consistent with the 1.5 °C temperature limit. If all countries were to follow Japan’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

We project that Japan’s implemented policies will lead to emission levels of 31% to 37% below 2013 levels in 2030, excluding LULUCF, falling short of its NDC target to achieve 46% (42% excluding LULUCF credits) below 2013 levels. Without additional measures, Japan will likely miss its NDC target, let alone the more than 60% reduction below 2013 levels which we estimate as 1.5 °C-compatible.

The Green Transformation Basic Policy has failed to raise Japan’s climate ambitions. The strategy provides no details on the expected emissions reduction for 2030 and 2050 and prioritises nuclear energy expansion and the development of so called “clean coal” technologies. There are also concerns that the carbon pricing scheme envisioned by the government will not be effective in reducing Japan’s emissions.

The government’s focus on developing co-firing coal plants with ammonia and hydrogen and introducing the as-yet-unviable carbon capture and storage, are all distractions from the need for it to phase out coal-fired power by 2030 at the latest.

The full policies and action analysis can be found here.

The CAT rates the currently planned 2030 reduction target of 46% (42% excluding LULUCF) below 2013 levels as “Insufficient” when compared to modelled domestic emissions pathways. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Japan’s NDC target against modelled domestic pathways needs substantial improvements to be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C.

If all countries were to follow Japan’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

The CAT rates Japan’s 2030 NDC target as “Insufficient” when compared with its fair-share emissions allocation. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Japan’s NDC target in 2030 needs substantial improvement to be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C

Some of these improvements should be made to the domestic emissions target itself, others could come in the form of additional financial support for emissions reduction in developing countries. Japan’s target is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort and is not consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. If all countries were to follow Japan’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

The CAT rates Japan’s international public climate finance contributions as “Highly insufficient”. Japan remains committed to provide climate finance in the period post-2020 but contributions to date have been very low compared to its fair share. To improve its rating Japan needs to stop funding fossil fuel overseas and accelerate commitments to increase climate finance.

Japan’s climate finance is not sufficient to improve the NDC target against fair share rating, and the CAT rates Japan’s overall fair share contribution as “Insufficient”.

The CAT evaluates Japan’s net zero target as “poor” because Japan does not provide sufficient details on key elements that ensure effectiveness and transparency of net zero targets.