Japan

As reported by The Japan Times and other media outlets, the joint governmental panel of Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and Ministry of the Environment has proposed a new 2035 target of 60% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, compared to 2013 levels. This assumes a linear trajectory between Japan’s 2030 NDC target and the 2050 net zero target. While not yet officially endorsed or submitted by the Japanese government, this proposed 2035 target would significantly fall short of what is required to be 1.5°C compatible.

Recent analysis by the Climate Action Tracker finds a reduction of at least 81% by 2035 below 2013 would be needed in order to be compatible with 1.5°C-aligned domestic emission reduction pathways (see figure below). This finding has formed the basis of a recent expert statement by Japanese climate scientists, academics, and activists for an ambitious 2035 target.

Our analysis, which models 1.5°C-aligned pathways from 2020 onwards, shows that Japan will have drifted far away by 2030 from the 1.5°C-aligned pathways. For the 2035 NDC, the Japanese government must consider the way forward to make up for the delayed action, instead of using it as an excuse for continued lack of ambition and action in the future.

Moreover, as reported by the Asahi Shimbun newspaper, a member of the governmental 2035 NDC formulation committee was stopped by the Ministry of the Environment from expressing his opinion for a more ambitious target. This highlights the issues around transparency and fairness of energy and climate policy deliberation processes in Japan.

The Climate Action Tracker will assess Japan’s 2035 target as part of its recently launched 2035 Climate Target Update Tracker once officially communicated by the Japanese government.