Kenya

Historical emissions for 1990–2024 (excluding LULUCF), are taken from the PRIMAP v2.7 dataset (Gütschow et al., 2025). LULUCF emissions for 1990–2022 are taken from the data submitted to the UNFCCC in Kenya’s Third National Inventory Report (NIR3) (Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Forestry, 2023).

2030 NDC

Unconditional target: The NDC states that Kenya will bear 21% of the estimated required mitigation costs itself. In the absence of information on sectoral mitigation costs, we assume that this 21% financial contribution is equivalent to a 21% share of the targeted emission reductions. On that basis, we calculate the unconditional contribution to be equivalent to an unconditional target of 7% below BAU, including LULUCF – or 21% below BAU, excluding LULUCF emissions. This corresponds to an emissions level of 113 MtCO₂e by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).

The CAT presents all target values excluding LULUCF. In its first NDC, Kenya included a separate target of 47% below BAU by 2030 for the LULUCF sector. Because explicit reference to this target was dropped in the latest NDC update, we no longer consider the 47% target. We now assume that LULUCF emissions will provide the same share of total emissions in 2030 as outlined in its original NDC baseline, or about 15%.

Conditional target: If the conditional target is met, emissions in 2030 will reach 82 MtCO₂e (excl. LULUCF). This conditional contribution is equivalent to a 43% reduction below BAU by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).

2035 NDC

Kenya set its 2035 NDC target as a 35% reduction below a BAU scenario of 215 MtCO₂e, with 20% of this reduction (the unconditional component of the target) coming from Kenya’s own domestic resources and 80% (the conditional component of the target) achieved through climate finance and other international support. This leads to an emissions level of 200 MtCO₂e under the unconditional target and of 140 MtCO₂e under the conditional target, in 2035, including emissions from LULUCF. The target is communicated in Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), so our calculations apply the stated percentage reductions directly to the BAU values, without any further adjustments.

The CAT rates emissions excluding those from the LULUCF sector. Kenya has not provided any details on projected LULUCF emissions in 2035, so we assume that emissions from LULUCF in 2035 will represent the same sectoral share outlined in the BAU scenario of Kenya’s National Climate Change Action Plan III 2023-2027 (see Table 5 of the Plan), or roughly 15%. Under this assumption, the targets translate to emissions levels of 169 MtCO₂e under the unconditional target and of 118 MtCO₂e under the conditional target, in 2035 (excl. LULUCF).

Upper bound

The upper bound of our current policy projection is based on a combination of data sources. Energy-related CO₂ emissions are taken from Kenya’s Energy Transition and Investment Plan 2024, which outlines an emissions pathway for the energy sector from 2020 to 2050 under a “Current policies” scenario that assumes full implementation of current energy-related policies (Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, 2024a). For non-CO₂ emissions, we take historical data from the PRIMAP v2.7 dataset for 2018–2024 and harmonise to estimates from the EPA to derive projections for 2025–2035 (EPA, 2025; Gütschow et al., 2025). For other CO₂ emissions we use historical data from PRIMAP v2.7 for 2015–2024 and use a trend extension to create a projection for 2025–2035 (Gütschow et al., 2025). Summing together our estimates for energy-related CO₂, non-CO₂, and other CO₂ emissions provides the upper bound of our current policy projection.

Lower bound

The lower bound of our current policy projection takes sectoral projections from the NCCAP III harmonised to historical data from PRIMAP v2.7 as its basis (Gütschow et al., 2025; Republic of Kenya, 2024). We begin by taking the NCCAP III’s sectoral projections for electricity, energy demand, transportation, agriculture, IPPU, and waste. We then consider the impact of three sectoral strategies and substitute their estimates in for the NCCAP III’s: the Least Cost Power Development Plan 2022 (LCPDP) for electricity emissions in 2030, the Transport Sector Climate Change Annual Report 2021/2022 for transportation emissions in 2030, and the Climate Smart Agriculture Strategy (CSAS) 2017–2026 for agricultural emissions in 2026. We use a trend extension on the CSAS to derive agricultural emissions in 2027–2030.

By adding together estimates of energy demand from the NCCAP III with the electricity projections from the LCPDP 2022 and transport projections from the Transport Sector Climate Change Annual Report 2021/2022, we derive an estimate for total energy emissions and then harmonise this to historical data. We also harmonise the NCCAP III projections for the IPPU and waste sectors, as well as projections from the Climate Smart Agriculture Strategy for the agricultural sector.

By adding all these sectors together and harmonising to historical data from PRIMAP v2.7 on total emissions excluding LULUCF, we derive the lower bound of our current policy projection. Because the NCCAP III and sectoral strategies only provide data to 2030, we use a five-year trend extension to derive estimates for 2031–2035.

The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) for all its figures and time series unless stated otherwise. Assessments completed prior to June 2025 used GWP values from the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), and those completed prior to December 2018 (COP24) used GWP values from the Second Assessment Report (SAR).