Kenya

We rate Kenya’s policies and action as '1.5°C compatible' compared to their fair share contribution to climate change mitigation. The '1.5°C compatible' rating indicates that Kenya’s climate policies and action are consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Kenya’s climate policies and action do not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions.

Kenya’s emissions continue to increase under our projections, from 69 MtCO₂e in 2024 to 74–84 MtCO₂e by 2030. Kenya will need international support to implement policies that drive emissions reductions beyond its fair share, to support the global reductions necessary to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming limit.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (with modelled domestic pathways and fair shares) can be found here.

Under the leadership of President William Ruto, action on climate change has become a central priority for Kenya. During the African Ministerial Conference on the Environment (AMCEN) in Nairobi in 2025, President Ruto called for a united African front in tackling climate change, describing it as an “existential threat to humanity and all life on earth” (Ministry of Foreign and Diaspora Affairs, 2025). Ruto noted that, as the host of the only UN headquarters in the Global South, Kenya has a special role to play in leading by example on climate action, and urged bold leadership, practical solutions, and enhanced climate finance.

With over 90% of its electricity generated from renewable sources, progress in developing frameworks for environmental governance, and the implementation of robust environmental laws, Kenya has made significant progress in living up to the standard President Ruto called for (Ministry of Foreign and Diaspora Affairs, 2025).

The Climate Change Act (2016) mandates the government to develop a National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) and update it every five years (Republic of Kenya, 2016b). The third and latest plan (NCCAP III) covers the period 2023–2027 and aims to guide climate action across every sector of Kenya’s economy during that time and support the implementation of Kenya’s NDC. Under the NCCAP III, sector representatives define priority mitigation actions designed to ensure that each sector achieves its sectoral targets (Republic of Kenya, 2024).

The National Energy Compact 2025–2030 translates Kenya’s various economic, social, and environmental development goals into actionable policy by laying out five pillars for enhancing the energy system: expanding capacity, increasing regional integration, achieving universal access to electricity by 2030, engaging private sector participation, and supporting competitive, reliable utilities (Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, 2025b). While the Compact aims to reach 100% renewable electricity in power generation by 2030, it also (wrongly) contemplates the use of LNG as a transition fuel, which could direct funds towards fossil fuels and slow the transition (Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, 2025b).

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Kenya also introduced the National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategy in 2020 and the Sustainable Waste Management Act in 2021. Both policies will address priority mitigation actions outlined in the NCCAP III for the energy and waste sectors, respectively.

However, despite a nearly decarbonised power sector and significant government engagement on climate action, Kenya’s emissions from the agriculture and forestry (AFOLU) sector have continued to grow, surpassing government targets in past NDCs and projections from policy documents. Nearly 75% of Kenya’s total emissions came from the AFOLU sector in 2022, driven by deforestation and the conversion of natural forests to cropland (Republic of Kenya, 2025).

For a country both economically reliant on agriculture and counting on its LULUCF sector to become a carbon sink by 2050, reducing emissions in these sectors is difficult and costly. While Kenya has often called for international support in the form of climate finance and technology transfer, the provision of this support is uncertain, making it unclear whether Kenya will meet its climate targets.

The government should focus on reducing AFOLU emissions by addressing their common source: deforestation. While past campaigns have sought to dramatically expand Kenya’s tree cover by planting millions of new saplings, reforestation efforts have not been able to keep up with deforestation, driven by a demand for firewood and charcoal used by nearly 70% of households in Kenya for traditional cooking (Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, 2024c). One estimate suggests that shifting cultivation through conversion to agricultural land and commercial mining could be responsible for nearly 90% of deforestation in Kenya (Dummett & Fenton, 2022).

While the Kenya Forest Service announced in 2022 that it had exceeded the 10% constitutional goal by reaching 12% tree cover and President Kenyatta announced a new goal of achieving 30% tree cover by 2050 (Kenya Forest Service, 2022), data from the UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) shows that tree cover in Kenya did not exceed 7% at any point between 1990–2023 (FAOSTAT, 2023). A lack of standardised methods for defining and measuring forest cover may contribute to this discrepancy. The larger issue is that despite reported improvements in tree cover, emissions from LULUCF continue to rise rapidly.

A combination of more aggressive action to reduce agricultural emissions and halt illegal deforestation, as well as government support for alternative sources of fuel may be needed before Kenya can reach peak emissions.

Power mix

Electricity generation in Kenya is almost exclusively powered by renewables. In 2024, over 90% of electricity was generated by renewable sources, primarily from geothermal and hydroelectric power (Ember, 2026). The share of wind and solar in power generation has increased considerably over the last five years, contributing around 18% of total generation in 2024, compared to a negligible share ten years before (Ember, 2026).

Coal and fossil gas play no role in Kenya’s power generation, although the country possesses sizable reserves and has continued to explore their use in meeting growing electricity demand (IEA, 2025).

Oil continues to play a minor role in Kenya’s power sector, but has significantly decreased in both absolute terms and in share of total generation since 2000, when it provided 60% of total electricity (Ember, 2026). Most of Kenya’s imported oil is used in fuels for cooking and transportation, the production of asphalt and industrial lubricants, and to heat older buildings (IEA, 2026).

Government strategies and key energy policies

The National Energy Compact 2025–2030 outlines several commitments and objectives that will put Kenya on the path to providing reliable, affordable, and sustainable energy to support national development and the just energy transition (Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, 2025b). These include improving rural standards of living through increased access to electricity and clean cooking, creating new jobs, higher incomes, and economic growth through reliable and affordable green energy, and reducing dependence on fossil fuels to ultimately reach 100% clean energy in national power generation by 2030 (Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, 2025b).

The National Energy Policy 2025–2034 sets the strategic direction for Kenya’s energy sector over the next decade, outlining various initiatives to address challenges in energy access, security, efficiency, and sustainability across the national grid (Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, 2025c). The policy has six key objectives: universal electricity access by 2030, diversifying the energy mix, universal access to clean cooking by 2030, enhancing energy efficiency, innovating in emerging technologies, and supporting a just transition (Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, 2025c).

A main target of Kenya’s energy policy is reaching universal access to electricity by 2030, a long-running goal made actionable through programmes like the Last Mile Connectivity Project (LMCP). By focusing on rural electrification through the rollout of off-grid solar systems and mini-grids, electricity access has improved dramatically across the country, rising from 37% in 2013 to 79% in 2023 (IEA, 2025). Increasing access to electricity is critical for Kenya in unlocking the full potential of its clean energy supply.

The Least-Cost Power Development Plan (LCPDP) 2024–2043 is the next instalment of Kenya’s technical roadmap for the power sector, outlining expansions in generation, transmission, and distribution networks across the country (Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, 2024d).

The Energy Act 2019 consolidates laws relating to the promotion of renewable energy (anchoring the Renewable Energy Feed-in-Tariff-System), matters related to geothermal energy, and the regulation of petroleum and coal activities, among others. The Act contains neither a target for sectoral emissions reductions nor a reference to climate mitigation (EPRA, 2019a), but in 2025 the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) published draft solar PV regulations for public review and comment, seeking to update the regulatory regime to account for developments in the sector including the maturation of the solar PV industry (EPRA, 2019b) (EPRA, 2025c).

The government’s Finance Act 2021 reinstated the VAT exemption on clean cooking and solar energy products, further supporting access to modern energy for all (Republic of Kenya, 2021). Clean cooking and solar energy products remain exempt from the VAT for now, but such exemptions are set to expire on June 30, 2026 (KPMG, 2025).

Coal

On the use of coal in the power sector, we evaluate Kenya as “Coal free.”

Kenya not yet exploited its significant coal resources, and coal currently plays no role in national power generation (Ember, 2026). The government had plans to build the Lamu coal power plant, a 981 MW power plant to be commissioned by 2024, and a 960 MW coal-fired power plant in Kitui, was scheduled for 2034–36 (Republic of Kenya, 2018). However, plans for the Lamu plant have been frozen indefinitely after legal challenges from civil society groups led to the revocation of its environmental license, while work on the Kitui power station seems to have stalled, with minimal progress due to environmental concerns and a broader market shift away from coal towards solar power in East Africa (Business and Human Rights Resource Centre, 2025).

Across Africa, existing coal power generation would need to be phased-out by 2034 to be compatible with the Paris Agreement (Yanguas Parra et al., 2019). Building new coal-fired power plants in Kenya would be inconsistent with that goal and risk creating stranded assets given decreasing market demand and high operating costs (Tariq & Moss, 2025). Despite this, both Kenya’s 2035 NDC and the LCPDP contemplate further use of coal in electricity generation. The government has awarded contracts for coal mining in two sections of the Mui Basin, estimated to hold up to 400 million tonnes of coal reserves (Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, 2024d).

Fossil gas

On the use of fossil gas in the power sector, we evaluate Kenya as “Gas free.”

Although Kenya’s Ministry of Energy and Petroleum has promoted the use of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) in households and businesses to replace oil and charcoal cook-fires, fossil gas currently plays no role in Kenya’s power supply. Despite recorded gas discoveries in the Anza and Lamu Basins, the commercial viability of these deposits is uncertain given local opposition, the risk of environmental damage, and the rapidly falling costs of solar energy in Africa (Ehl & Musvanhiri, 2025; Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, 2025a).

Even so, the LCPDP and National Energy Compact still envisions fossil gas and LNG as transition fuels and notes that the government has explored opportunities to develop domestic gas resources or import from other African nations as a way to diversify the fuels used in power generation (Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, 2024d). Such efforts risk creating stranded assets and directing public resources towards fuels that will damage Kenya’s environment and economy in the medium to long term.

Oil

Oil continues to play a minor role in Kenya’s power sector, providing 8% of total electricity in 2024 (Ember, 2026). While the use of oil has significantly decreased in both absolute terms and as a share of total power generation since 2000, when it provided 60% of electricity, the downward trend has since stalled. Oil for electricity generation has surged from a historic low point of 6% in 2020 to a recent high of 12% in 2022, driven by a steady increase in imports (Ember, 2026).

Due to uneven progress towards a full phase-out of oil in the power sector, we evaluate Kenya as moving in the “Wrong direction.”

The LCPDP notes that the commercial viability of domestic refining and export of crude oil is still being explored, with demand for petroleum products growing by about 10% annually (Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, 2024d). Most of Kenya’s imported oil is used in fuels for cooking and transportation, the production of asphalt and industrial lubricants, and to heat older buildings (IEA, 2026).

The latest CAT briefing on clean power benchmarks shows that to align with 1.5°C, fossil fuels must be fully phased out of Kenya’s power sector by 2045 (Climate Action Tracker, 2026).

Renewables

Renewables dominate Kenya’s power sector, providing around 92% of total electricity in 2024 (Ember, 2026). Geothermal plants supplied 43% of this clean electricity and hydroelectric power contributed 28% (Ember, 2026). Generation from wind and solar has increased significantly in the last decade, from a negligible share in 2014 to 18% in 2024 (Ember, 2026). Under the National Energy Compact 2025–2030, Kenya aims to reach 100% clean energy in national power generation by 2030 (Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, 2025b).

Due to the significant amount of clean energy in the power mix, we evaluate Kenya as “Making headway” on renewables.

While the government missed a target set by previous President Kenyatta of being fully green by 2020, the renewable rollout is expected to continue as the cost of solar power in Africa falls further, assisted by government policies like the Kenya Off-Grid Solar Access Project (KOSAP) which supports rural electrification using solar and increased grid access (Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, 2026). Under the Renewable Energy Auction Policy, Kenya has switched to using auctions for all renewable projects larger than 20 MW in an effort to build out solar and wind capacity at competitive prices to leverage private investment (Ministry of Energy, 2021).

The latest CAT briefing on clean power benchmarks shows that Kenya should reach 4.7 GW of wind and solar capacity by 2030 to stay aligned with a 1.5°C-compatible pathway and meet growing demand (Climate Action Tracker, 2026). This would require wind and solar generation to grow 4–4.5 times from 2023 levels by 2030, a significant undertaking.

The National Energy Compact contemplates reaching 1.8 GW of wind and solar capacity by 2030, supplemented by geothermal power and the use of LNG as a transition fuel to reach the 100% clean energy goal (Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, 2025b). The CAT predicts that under current policies and market conditions only about half of the wind and solar capacity needed to align with 1.5C will be installed by 2030 (Climate Action Tracker, 2026).

Bioenergy

Kenya is rapidly developing a biomass and biofuels sector to further diversify its energy mix. Across the country, over 8,000 installed plants use agricultural residues from sugar and coffee, municipal waste, and milled bamboo to produce biogas and biomass (EPRA, 2025a). The Bioenergy Strategy 2020–2027 envisions new biofuels as essential to supporting Kenya’s goal of reaching 100% clean cooking by 2028, especially considering that 75% of Kenyans still rely on biomass as their primary source of energy and over 20% lack a reliable connection to the national power grid (IEA, 2025; Ministry of Energy, 2020a)

New projects are also exploring the use of crops such as jatropha, castor, and coconut to produce new forms of fuel such as biodiesel and bioethanol. These biofuels can be blended with regular jet fuel to create Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), potentially contributing to decarbonising international aviation. In May 2023, Kenya Airways became the first African airline to operate a long-haul flight powered by SAF and is working with the government to establish domestic SAF production by 2026 (Pandey, 2025).

Nuclear

The NCCAP III outlines plans to build capacity for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by recruiting or training nuclear scientists and engineers (Republic of Kenya, 2024). The Nuclear Power and Energy Agency (NuPEA) is currently developing a proposal for a 1,000 MW nuclear power plant, with three potential sites under discussion. Each site is located near an important water source around the country, sparking concerns about nuclear waste and environmental contamination (Toto, 2025).

An additional proposal from NuPEA contemplates a 2,000 MW power plant based on Small Modular Reactors in Siaya County, located on the shore of Lake Victoria (GAA, 2025). NuPEA’s CEO Justus Wabuyabo emphasised the project’s safety and long-term benefits, serving as a source of lasting jobs and electricity for Kenya and the region.

However, nuclear power plants require a steady source of enriched fuel, which is finite and often rare. The LCPDP notes that only low levels of uranium ore have been discovered in Kenya with exploration still ongoing, making nuclear another form of energy dependence despite its generation capability (Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, 2024d).

Although nuclear electricity generation does not emit CO₂, the CAT does not see nuclear as the solution to the climate crisis due to its risks such as nuclear accidents and proliferation, high and increasing costs compared to alternatives such as renewables, long construction times, incompatibility with flexible supply of electricity from wind and solar and its vulnerability to heat waves.

The industrial sector is a minor contributor to emissions in Kenya, accounting for only 5% of total emissions in 2024 (excl. LULUCF), although emissions have doubled since 2013 (Gütschow et al., 2025). The overwhelming majority of these emissions come from cement production, accounting for 97% of industrial emissions in 2022 (UNIDO, 2025).

Cement manufacturing is identified as a core industrial sector, with a growing demand for cement from within Kenya and from neighbouring countries (Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources, 2017b). The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics noted that both production of – and demand for – cement rose significantly in 2025, with a 17% increase in production and a 20% increase in demand year-over year (Global Cement, 2026).

Cement manufacturers have been shifting to imported coal to reduce costs, positioning the sector as a significant potential consumer of domestic coal if Kenya begins to mine its own reserves. This development threatens to increase industrial emissions even further, wiping out the benefits of energy efficiency improvements in the sector, which were previously estimated at 0.23 MtCO₂e (Government of Kenya, 2018). In the NCCAP III, the priority action for the industrial sector is to improve energy and resource efficiency in manufacturing, with the hope of promoting a circular economy in industrial processes (Republic of Kenya, 2024). The plan notes that due to the capital-intensive nature of manufacturing, much of Kenya’s industrial base faces increasing risk from extreme weather events and climate-induced resource scarcity.

By mid-2028, the government plans to improve energy efficiency implementation rates from 50% to 75%, increase the adoption of Minimum Energy Performance Standards by 20%, increase energy auditing for businesses, reach at least 30% of building projects certified to green standards, and establish a green construction materials park at the East African Portland Cement Company (Republic of Kenya, 2024).

The transport sector is a significant factor in Kenya’s emissions, contributing about 20% of total emissions in 2024 (Ministry of Roads and Transport, 2024).

Kenya has experienced high rates of urbanisation and development, but transport systems and infrastructure development have not kept pace. Traffic conditions in Nairobi and other major cities are characterised by congested and unsafe roadways that contribute to local air pollution and significant economic losses (Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources, 2017b).

Four priority mitigation actions were identified by sector experts in the NCCAP 2018–2022. The option with the largest mitigation potential was the implementation of the Mass Rapid Transport System (MRTS) for Greater Nairobi with an abatement potential of 2.47 MtCO₂e. This system includes several components, including a commuter rail system, the Bus Rapid Transit (BTR), and dedicated Non-Motorised Transport (NMT), each of which continues to be expanded (Namata, 2026).

As of 2025 the rehabilitation of existing railways has been completed, with seven new commuter rail stations unveiled in October 2024 (Mwanawanjuguna, 2025). In 2026, the World Bank pledged KES 65 billion (USD 504.5 million) towards modernising the new Nairobi-Thika 58 km commuter rail network (Amunga, 2026). The project is currently in the planning phase, with board approval expected in December 2026 and implementation to follow soon after.

The other mitigation options include a transfer of freight from road to rail between Nairobi and Mombasa (1.18 MtCO₂e), improvement of the heavy-duty truck efficiency (1.04 MtCO₂e) and the electrification of the SGR line between Nairobi and Mombasa, which is currently run by diesel rail cars (0.34 MtCO₂e) (Government of Kenya, 2018). The assumption behind these strategies is that Kenya’s electricity mix will remain dominated by renewable energy sources, such as geothermal, hydropower, wind and solar.

All priority mitigation actions together have an abatement potential of 5.04 MtCO₂e, against a sectoral target of 3.7 MtCO₂e (Government of Kenya, 2018).

The NCCAP III expands on these goals, seeking to develop 70 km of the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system for the Nairobi metropolitan area, expanding commuter rail in cities like Nairobi and Mombasa, designing and building 500 km of walkways and cycle lanes to improve non-motorised transit, and deploying 1,000 electric buses with local charging infrastructure (Republic of Kenya, 2024). Recognising the threat of extreme weather in a warming world, Kenya is also committing to climate-proofing 5,000 km of roads through improved pavement design, better drainage systems, and the installation of green road corridors.

The transport sector, with support from the German Society for International Development (GIZ), was the first sector to meet the regular reporting and progress tracking requirements of the Climate Change Act (Government of Kenya, 2019). While this collaboration ended in 2021, work on transport mitigation continued in the following years under priorities laid out in the NCCAP II, including the development of several master plans outlining the expansion and modernisation of the road and commuter rail systems (Ministry of Roads and Transport, 2023).

Absolute emissions in the transport sector are projected to grow from 11.4 MtCO₂e in 2015 to 21 MtCO₂e in 2030 according to the baseline scenario. This is mainly attributed to an increase in the number of passenger and freight vehicles on the road. To meet the sectoral emissions target outlined by the government, 2030 emissions from the transport sector should not exceed 17.54 MtCO₂e (Government of Kenya, 2020; Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources, 2017b).

While the buildings sector is a notable contributor to national greenhouse gas emissions in Kenya, accounting for about 15% of total emissions in 2023 (excl. LULUCF), its main impact comes as Kenya’s most energy-demanding sector, accounting for two-thirds of final electricity consumption in 2024 (IEA, 2024; Njogu, 2024). This high demand comes primarily through energy use for cooking, lighting, heating, and appliances in residential and commercial buildings, along with the environmental impact of construction materials (IEA, 2024). Mitigation efforts for this sector emphasise incorporating energy efficiency targets and access to clean energy into the built environment to meet Kenya’s climate goals.

Cooking

Smoke from cooking stoves is a major source of emissions in the buildings sector, accounting for around 40% of Kenya’s total emissions in 2024 (Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, 2024c). Traditional fuels such as firewood, charcoal, and kerosene are used by nearly 70% of rural households in Kenya for cooking, making the problem socially entrenched and difficult to solve.

Recognising this challenge, the Government has launched comprehensive strategies to accelerate the transition to clean cooking, motivated by the need to reduce emissions, control indoor air pollution, and blunt demand for wood, a major driver of deforestation in Kenya (Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, 2024b). Residential cooking fuels resulted in 21,500 premature deaths from diseases caused by air pollution from cooking in 2021 (NewClimate Institute & EED Advisory, 2021).

The Kenya National Cooking Transition Strategy (KNCTS) and the Kenya National Electric Cooking Strategy (KneCS) provide a roadmap to achieve universal access to clean cooking by 2028, with targets for the increased use of bioethanol, electric cooking, biogas, and sustainable biomass (Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, 2024b, 2024c). The Ministry of Energy’s Behaviour Change and Communication Strategy (‘Upishi Bora, Afya Bora’) aims to shift public behaviours towards cleaner fuels and technologies through media advocacy and partnerships with community organisations at the local level (Ministry of Energy, 2022).

Kenya has already made significant progress, with access to clean cooking rising from 10% in 2013 to 31% in 2023, although 69% of households (primarily in rural areas) still rely on polluting fuels (IEA, 2024). To meet its target of universal access to clean cooking by 2028, the government will need to accelerate its efforts.

Construction

The 2019 Energy Act puts responsibility on the Ministry of Energy to continue implementing Minimum Energy Performance Standards for appliances and devices and to integrate energy efficiency requirements into building codes (EPRA, 2019a).

Building codes in Kenya are now transitioning to European construction guidelines (Eurocodes). The code specifies that buildings must consider energy efficiency, passive and natural cooling methods, and the use of natural daylight. New housing developments should have solar hot water in bathrooms and consider using solar PV and wind as energy sources (C2E2, 2018).

Kenya's National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategy aims to develop Minimum Energy Performance Standards for more product categories, including cookstoves. While not yet fully implemented, the government aims to ban the least efficient products in each category (e.g. the bottom 10%) from the market. The strategy also aims to develop Minimum Energy Performance Standards for new buildings and adopt a nationwide program for retrofitting existing buildings with energy efficiency upgrades (Ministry of Energy, 2020b).

The Energy Management Regulations 2025 build on the requirements laid out by the earlier 2012 version. All facilities whose energy consumption exceeds 180,000 kWh per year are required to develop an energy management policy, perform an energy audit every four years, submit an energy investment plan that implements at least 50% of the energy savings measures identified in the audit, and designate an energy manager who is responsible for executing energy efficiency and conservation programs (EPRA, 2025b).

Initiatives like the Laikipia Integrated Housing Project also demonstrate the potential for reducing emissions by using alternative construction materials. The project uses compressed earth block (CEB) technology, using traditional methods and local materials like soil, grass, and cow dung, to keep buildings cool and insulated in the heat of Kenya’s highland region (Chime, 2025).

Behind the LULUCF sector, agriculture is the largest source of Kenya’s emissions and accounted for 52% of its total emissions (excl. LULUCF) in 2024. The overwhelming majority of agricultural emissions are methane from livestock, either released during enteric fermentation or by manure left on pastures (FAO, 2023).

A strong agriculture sector is a priority of the Kenyan government because of its importance for food security, rural livelihoods, and poverty alleviation. Agriculture is the most important sector for Kenya’s economy, directly accounting for 21% of GDP in 2022. It is heavily reliant on rural smallholder farmers, who produce about 80% of the country’s total agricultural output (Republic of Kenya, 2025).

The main policy goals of the sector, outlined in the Agriculture Sector Development Strategy 2010–2020 and the Kenyan Climate Smart Agriculture Strategy (CSA) 2016–2027, are focused on increasing agricultural productivity and commercialisation as well as promoting sustainable land and resource management (FAPDA, 2013; Ministry of Agriculture, 2018).

The CSA Strategy is a roadmap to coordinate and implement mitigation measures in the agricultural sector to support Kenya’s 2030 NDC goals (Ministry of Agriculture, 2018). It aims to support adaption to climate change, build the resilience of agricultural systems for enhanced nutritional security and improved livelihoods, and at the same time minimise emissions from agriculture. The Strategy outlines the goal of reducing sectoral emissions to 32.2 MtCO₂e in 2026 below the BAU scenario of 39.8 MtCO₂e in the same year (conditional on domestic and international support) (Ministry of Agriculture, 2018). Since the strategy was adopted, however, agriculture emissions have continued to increase, driven largely by enteric methane emissions from livestock, and reached 36 MtCO2e in 2024 (Gütschow et al., 2025; Kimoro, 2019).

The priority mitigation actions for the agriculture sector are agroforestry, increased farm area under sustainable land management and the implementation of Kenya’s Dairy NAMA via increased productivity (Government of Kenya, 2018). The dairy NAMA (Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action) is notable because it aims to reduce methane emissions from enteric fermentation and manure management, which are exponentially more potent than CO₂ emissions and unaffected by improvements in land management or carbon uptake of forests (UNFCCC, 2026). The current status of this project is paused, pending finance from the Green Climate Fund (GCF).

Agroforestry has the highest abatement potential by far and can be considered a hybrid approach between agriculture and forestry that encompasses mixed land-use practices. This mitigation action encourages compliance with the Agricultural Farm Forestry Rules, which require every land holder to maintain a farm tree cover of at least 10% on any agricultural land holdings (Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources, 2017b).

All mitigation actions together have an abatement potential of 5.56 MtCO₂e by 2030, compared to the sector’s target of reducing 3 MtCO₂e below BAU by 2030 (Government of Kenya, 2018; Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources, 2017b).

The implementation of climate-smart agriculture practices has had mixed results. As of June 2020, 52,075 ha of degraded land has been reclaimed via sustainable land management practices, meeting 87% of the NCCAP’s 2022 target. Only 10,286 ha of agricultural land, or 4% of the 2022 target, has been put under soil nutrient management while 20,050 ha of land, or 8% of the 2022 target has begun applying conservation agriculture practices (Ministry of Environment and Forestry, 2021). Under the NCCAP III, by June 2028 Kenya expects to expand the area under soil nutrient management by 2,500,000 ha, increase the area of farmland under conservation agriculture from 53,200 ha to 100,000 ha, and deploy soil and water conservation measures on 1,000,000 ha of farmland (Republic of Kenya, 2024).

According to the NDC baseline, absolute emissions from the agriculture sector are projected to grow from 34 MtCO₂e in 2015 to 41.6 MtCO₂e in 2030 while the contribution of agricultural emissions to total national emissions is expected to decrease from 59% in 2015 to 32% in 2030 (excl. LULUCF) (Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources, 2017a). With implementation of the CSA strategy, absolute emissions were projected to reach 31.6 MtCO₂e in 2030 (Republic of Kenya, 2018). However, agricultural emissions have not meaningfully declined in the last five years, making it uncertain whether Kenya can meet this target (Gütschow et al., 2025).

Because Kenya is so reliant on agriculture, which is also a major driver of deforestation, reducing emissions in this sector through land management without affecting productivity is difficult.

The LULUCF sector is the single largest contributor to emissions in Kenya, accounting for 41% of total emissions in 2024 (Republic of Kenya, 2025). The primary driver of LULUCF emissions is deforestation due to the conversion of forests to agricultural land, unsustainable utilisation of forest products (including charcoal), and increasingly severe forest fires. Of these, agriculture serves as the single-largest driver of deforestation (Dummett & Fenton, 2022). One estimate suggests that shifting cultivation through conversion to agricultural land and commercial mining could be responsible for nearly 90% of deforestation in Kenya (Dummett & Fenton, 2022).

Considerable deforestation has occurred in Kenya over the last 20 to 30 years, though there is significant uncertainty regarding the exact forest coverage in the country and the true rate of deforestation. As a result, LULUCF emissions have risen dramatically since data collection began in 2000, from 2.7 MtCO₂e in 2002 to 46.7 MtCO₂ in 2022, an increase of over 2000% in 20 years (Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Forestry, 2023).

In 2020, Kenya lost approximately 17,200 ha of natural forest (Global Forest Watch, 2022). In 2024, Kenya lost another 7,400 ha of natural forest, representing 3 MtCO₂e of carbon emissions (Global Forest Watch, 2024). For a country whose total emissions were about 70 MtCO₂e in 2024 (Gütschow et al., 2025), these losses represent a substantial and growing source of emissions. Kenya’s LULUCF emissions of 47 MtCO₂e in 2022 are already far above the 2030 baseline of 22 MtCO₂e outlined in its NDC update (Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources, 2017c). This puts the target at risk of significant overshoot, particularly if Kenya intends to rely on the LULUCF sector to meet its target, although the expected contribution of the sector has not been specified.

Sustainable and productive management of forests and their resources is enshrined in Kenya’s Constitution, adopted in 2010, which establishes a tree cover target of at least 10% of the country’s land area. In 2022, the Kenya Forest Service announced that it had exceeded the constitutional goal by reaching 12% tree cover and began planning to achieve President Kenyatta’s goal of 30% tree cover by 2050 (Kenya Forest Service, 2022).

However, despite significant efforts by the government to reduce deforestation and support tree-planting initiatives, data from the UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) shows that tree cover in Kenya did not exceed 7% at any point between 1990–2023 (FAOSTAT, 2023). A lack of standardised methods for defining and measuring forest cover may contribute to this discrepancy. The larger issue is that despite reported improvements in tree cover, emissions from LULUCF continue to rise rapidly. Despite these improvements, LULUCF emissions continue to rise, showing more direct action is needed.

The Forest Conservation and Management Act 2016 provides guidance for the development and sustainable management of all forest resources. The Act classifies forests as public, community or private forests. Public forests are the responsibility of the Kenya Forest Service (KFS), community forests are managed by the community, and each County Government is responsible for the protection and management of forests and woodlands under its jurisdiction (Republic of Kenya, 2016a). The Act also indicates that indigenous forests and woodlands are to be managed on a sustainable basis to support carbon sequestration.

In the 2030 NDC Sectoral Analysis, the forestry sector’s target is to reduce emissions by 20.1 MtCO₂e below BAU by 2030, corresponding to 47% of the overall abatement task (Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources, 2017b). However, Kenya’s updated NDC does not specify a sectoral target for the LULUCF sector (Ministry of Environment and Forestry, 2020). Kenya’s 2035 NDC mentions reforestation and rehabilitation as priorities for the government but does not commit to any specific target.

In the NCCAP 2023–2027, the government has outlined several priority mitigation actions for the LULUCF sector that are intended to restore degraded forests (Republic of Kenya, 2024). Results are expected by mid-2028 and key measures include increasing tree cover by 1%, rehabilitating and protecting an additional 100,000 ha of natural forest through community participation and restricting access to vulnerable areas, expanding tree nurseries managed by the Kenya Forest Service, and supporting alternative technologies like clean cooking to reduce demand for biomass (Republic of Kenya, 2024).

If fully achieved, these measures are estimated to result in 37.3 MtCO₂e of emission reductions by 2027 (Republic of Kenya, 2024).

The NCCAP 2018–2022 proposed to restore around 40,000 ha of land per year, resulting in a total of 480,000 ha to be restored by 2030. This was significantly less than the 1.2 million ha outlined in the first NCCAP 2013–2017 (Government of Kenya, 2018). The NCCAP III continues this trend, proposing to restore only 35,000 ha of degraded public forests by mid-2028 (Republic of Kenya, 2024).

Reforestation efforts are ongoing, with projects like the Mount Kenya Regenerative Agroforestry Project aiming to boost local economies through job opportunities and training for rural smallholder farmers, while simultaneously revitalising degraded lands and restoring habitats for wildlife threatened by human activity (Green Earth, 2026). The Mount Kenya project is currently in the implementation phase and aims to plant more than 10 million trees over a seven-year period, which are estimated to capture about 0.34 MtCO2e per year once fully grown, a miniscule impact compared to the current magnitude of LULUCF emissions of 46.8 MtCO₂e in 2022 (Green Earth, 2026; Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Forestry, 2023).

The waste sector in Kenya contributes a relatively small share of national greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for about 8% of total emissions in 2024 (excl. LULUCF) (Gütschow et al., 2025). Most waste emissions are produced by methane from unmanaged organic waste in landfills and open dumping sites (Gütschow et al., 2025).

Kenya’s waste-sector mitigation efforts are anchored in a few national legal and planning frameworks that prioritise improved waste management and methane reduction. The Climate Change Act (2016) and latest National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP III) identify solid waste management as a mitigation priority, with a focus on diverting organic waste from open dumping and uncontrolled landfills (Republic of Kenya, 2016b; Republic of Kenya, 2024).

The most significant recent development in Kenya’s waste sector is the passage and implementation of the Sustainable Waste Management Act in 2022, which for the first time provides a nationally coordinated framework for waste reduction, recycling, and recovery, including mandatory extended producer responsibility (EPR) schemes for packaging, electronics, and other priority waste streams (Sustainable Waste Management Act, 2022).

Since the Act’s passage, several EPR schemes have begun operating, including the Kenya Plastics Pact and Kenya Extended Producer Responsibility Organisation (KEPRO), aiming to move towards a zero-waste concept to support a future circular economy in Kenya (KEPRO, 2026).

At the same time, Kenya has continued to support landfill rehabilitation and methane mitigation initiatives, including research on landfill gas capture and waste-to-energy at major dump sites such as Dandora in Nairobi (Eco-Build Africa, 2026). Together, these measures signal a gradual shift away from open dumping towards more circular waste management systems, although large-scale emissions reductions will depend on continued enforcement and investment.

These measures are complemented by earlier regulations under the Environmental Management and Co-ordination Act (2000, successively amended) and policy interventions such as the 2017 single-use plastic bag ban, which aimed to reduce waste volumes, improve collection and treatment practices, and limit methane emissions from unmanaged waste (Environmental Management and Co-Ordination Act, 2000; Global Plastics Policy Centre, 2023).

According to Kenya’s NDC baseline, absolute emissions from the waste sector are projected to grow from 2.6 MtCO₂e in 2015 to 5.2 MtCO₂e in 2030, while their contribution to total national emissions is expected to remain around 4% (excl. LULUCF) (Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources, 2017a). However, the projected level for 2030 has already been exceeded, with the waste sector emitting 5.8 MtCO₂e in 2024 (Gütschow et al., 2025).

Kenya is a signatory to the Global Methane Pledge, which is significant given its large and methane-intensive agricultural sector. A commitment to reduce methane emissions has not, however, been included in Kenya’s NDC submissions for 2030 or 2035, despite making up 62% of Kenya’s total emissions in 2024 (Gütschow et al., 2025). Signatories agreed to cut methane emissions in all sectors by 30% globally over the next decade. A 30% reduction in Kenya’s methane emissions below 2020 levels would represent a decline of 13.6 MtCO₂e.

Most methane emissions in Kenya come from the agricultural sector, which contributes 77% of all methane emissions (excl. LULUCF) (Gütschow et al., 2025). This methane is primarily released by enteric fermentation, a digestive process occurring in ruminants like sheep and cattle. Through programs like the dairy NAMA, Kenya aims to reduce methane emissions from livestock through improved feeds to reduce enteric fermentation and better manure management using anaerobic digesters to capture biogas (UNFCCC, 2026). However, this project is currently paused pending funding from the Green Climate Fund (GCF).

The NCCAP III does not reference specific mitigation measures to reduce methane emissions. Given methane’s potent warming effect, the government should take ambitious action and develop a plan to reduce these emissions across Kenya’s economy.