Kenya

Kenya submitted its 2035 NDC in April 2025, committing to a 35% reduction in emissions below a business as usual (BAU) scenario by 2035. While Kenya’s unconditional target for 2035 is 1.5°C compatible compared to its fair share, its conditional target is not aligned with a 1.5°C compatible pathway compared to modelled domestic pathways (MDPs) and does not commit to a fossil fuel phase-out. In absolute terms, emissions under this NDC would rise significantly, with the unconditional target level exceeding our current policies projection for 2035 by 74–114%.

In short, Kenya’s 2035 NDC represents a missed opportunity to reflect the level of ambition needed to address the climate crisis and could be strengthened to include a clearer commitment to measurable emissions reductions. For our full analysis, see the 2035 NDC tab.

In December 2020, Kenya submitted its updated 2030 NDC to the UNFCCC, setting a new target of reducing GHG emissions by 32% by 2030, relative to the BAU scenario of 143 MtCO₂e (incl. LULUCF). This target covers all sectors and is a minor improvement from the previous target of a 30% reduction below BAU.

While the previous NDC target was entirely conditional on international support, Kenya’s latest 2030 target commits to bearing 21% of the mitigation costs itself (USD 3.7 bn), although the government notes that its financing needs may evolve with changing circumstances. We calculate this unconditional contribution to be equivalent to a 7% reduction below BAU, including LULUCF – or 21% below BAU, excluding LULUCF. This corresponds to an emissions level of 113 MtCO₂e by 2030 (excl. LULUCF). These values are expressed using AR5 Global Warming Potentials (see the Assumptions tab for more details).

In its first 2030 NDC, Kenya included a separate target of reducing emissions by 47% from the LULUCF sector, but the government has dropped explicit reference to this target in its latest update. In its NDC baseline update, Kenya outlines that the LULUCF sector would contribute about 15% of total emissions in 2030, compared to its current share of 41% in 2022 (Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources, 2017c; Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Forestry, 2023).

However, emissions from this sector tripled between 2012–2022 and show no signs of falling, leaving the 2030 target in jeopardy, particularly if Kenya intends to rely on the LULUCF sector to meet its target (Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Forestry, 2023). Excluding this sector, the conditional target corresponds to an emissions level of 82 MtCO₂e by 2030, equivalent to a 43% reduction below BAU by 2030 (excl. LULUCF). Kenya should consider updating its 2035 NDC to include a separate target for reducing emissions from the LULUCF sector.

Kenya does not have a net zero target. It is preparing its long-term strategy. For more information, see the Net Zero Targets tab.

When Kenya updated its 2030 NDC on 28 December 2020, it slightly strengthened its 2030 target. Whereas the 2030 NDC from 2016 set the target of a 30% emissions reduction below BAU levels by 2030, and was fully dependent on international support, Kenya committed in December 2020 to reducing BAU emissions by 32% by 2030 and intends to meet part of this target without financial support.

Kenya’s 2030 NDC submission from December 2020 does not provide sectoral mitigation targets. This 2030 NDC also dropped its separate LULUCF target, which was a 47% reduction in emissions in the land sector. In 2022, LULUCF’s contribution to total emissions far exceeded the share anticipated in 2030 as communicated in its baseline update (Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources, 2017c; Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Forestry, 2023). Kenya should communicate more transparently on its LULUCF sector, providing detail on its expected contribution to total emissions in 2030 that take into account the latest historical data. Other implementation plans have not changed significantly compared to the 2030 NDC from 2016.

While the 2030NDC from December 2020 does not include sectoral targets, it does provide a non-exhaustive list of priority mitigation measures in various sectors. These include increasing the share of renewables in the national energy grid, enhancing energy efficiency across sectors, achieving a tree cover of at least 10% of Kenya’s land area, and implementing climate smart agriculture. The NDC also outlines that the planning processes for mitigation activities will be determined by the country’s Vision 2030 development programme, the National Climate Change Action Plans, and the National Adaptation Plan.

The 2030 NDC from 2020 provides much more detail on the country’s planning process, including an overview of Kenya’s policy, legal and institutional framework, as well as its NDC Revision Process, compared to its first NDC from 2016.

Kenya submitted its 2035 NDC target in April 2025, committing to a 35% reduction in emissions by 2035 below a business as usual (BAU) scenario. Kenya’s 2035 NDC did not increase the ambition of its 2030 target. For more information, see the 2035 NDC tab.

Comparison table

* Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target.

Target development timeline & previous CAT analysis

• 12.12.2020: “Kenya proposes unconditional target and slightly more ambitious conditional NDC target”
• 30.04.2025: Kenya submits its 2035 NDC

Developing countries like Kenya will need international support to achieve emissions reductions in line with our 1.5°C modelled domestic pathways. Kenya has put forward two targets in its 2030 NDC: one that it will achieve by using its own resources, and one that requires international support. For the rating, we compare the unconditional target to Kenya’s fair share contribution and the conditional target to modelled domestic pathways.

The CAT rates Kenya’s conditional NDC target compared to modelled domestic pathways as 'Insufficient' and its unconditional NDC target compared to fair share as '1.5°C compatible'. The sharp difference in the two ratings reflects Kenya’s situation as a country with strong development needs and a small historical responsibility, but with significant mitigation potential within its borders, which it could unlock with the help of international support.

We rate Kenya’s conditional NDC target for 2030 as 'Insufficient' when compared to modelled domestic pathways. The 'Insufficient' rating indicates that the conditional target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with modelled domestic pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Kenya’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. Even a small improvement in the target would change the rating to 'Almost sufficient'.

We rate Kenya’s unconditional NDC target for 2030 as '1.5°C compatible when compared with its fair-share contribution to climate action. The '1.5°C compatible' rating indicates that Kenya’s unconditional NDC target is consistent with its fair share of the global mitigation effort to limit warming to 1.5°C. Kenya’s unconditional target does not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions or greater effort and is in the most stringent part of its fair share range.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (compared to modelled pathways and fair share) can be found here.

We evaluate Kenya’s net zero target as: No target.

Kenya has not yet submitted an economy-wide net zero target to the UNFCCC. While some references to net zero and long-term decarbonisation towards 2050 have appeared in policy documents, there has been no explicit high-level government announcement committing Kenya to a net zero target. Kenya could make a clear high-level commitment and formalise its plans to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 by submitting an LTS to the UNFCCC.

For more information, see the Net Zero Targets tab.