Norway

Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming of greater than 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming over 2°C and up to 3°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with holding warming below, but not well below, 2°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. No “role model” rating has been developed for the sectors.

1.5°C Compatible< 1.5°C World

Historical emissions

Greenhouse gas emission inventories for 1990-2017 are based on the CRF 2019 submitted to the UNFCCC (UNFCCC, 2019). Emissions for 2018 are calculated based on growth rate between 2017 and 2018 coming from Statistics Norway (SSB, 2019) and applied to emissions in 2017.

Pledges

The Copenhagen pledge, as well as NDC and long-term target were calculated from the most recent national inventory submissions (UNFCCC, 2019).

While Norway intends to become a carbon neutral nation in 2030, it is not clear whether this includes sinks from Norway’s LULUCF sector projected to slightly decline in 2030, reaching 21 MtCO2. As a result, the conditional NDC target of carbon neutrality was quantified as 21 MtCO2.

The third biennial report provided further clarity on the definition of a low-emission society by 2050 by stating that the target is to achieve a reduction of the order of 80-95% below 1990 levels (Norwegian Ministry of Climate Change and Environment, 2018).

Current policies projections

The current policy projections are based on Norway's submission to the European Environment Agency (European Environment Agency, 2019c). Historical data is based on CRF 2019 for the period between 1990 and 2017 and Statistics Norway for 2018 (Statistics Norway, 2019b).