Norway

This assessment includes our policy analysis for Norway from 30 July 2020 translated into our new rating methodology. We have updated our data to include the latest historic emissions (2019) and updated GDP estimates for the impact of the pandemic, but have not undertaken any new analysis of Norway’s climate policies. We will update our country assessment fully in the coming months, at which time Norway’s ratings may change.

The CAT rates Norway’s climate targets, policies and finance as “Insufficient”. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Norway’s climate policies and commitments need substantial improvements to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. Norway’s updated 50% reduction target is “Almost sufficient”. If Norway followed the EU and moved to the top end of its updated NDC target, a reduction of 55% below 1990 by 2030, its domestic target rating would be compatible with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit when compared to modelled domestic emissions pathways. To achieve its NDC targets, Norway will need to enhance its current policies which are currently “Insufficient” and in line with 3°C warming. We also rate Norway’s target as “Insufficient” when compared with its fair-share contribution to climate action. Norway should both increase its emissions reduction targets and provide additional, predictable, finance to others to meet its fair-share contribution.

The CAT rates Norway’s policies and action as “Insufficient”. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Norway’s climate policies and action in 2030 need substantial improvements to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. If all countries were to follow Norway’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

Current policies are projected to lead to emission levels of 44-45MtCO₂ by 2030, which is 13-15% below emissions in 1990. The pandemic is unlikely to have any lasting impact on future emissions levels. Norway will need to adopt further policies in order to meet its updated NDC.

Norway’s electricity generation is almost exclusively renewable: in 2018, 95% of electricity was generated by hydro power plants and 2.6% from wind farms. Only 2.4% of generation was from thermal power plants, mostly in industrial heat processes.

Norway is home to the biggest hydrocarbon reserves in Europe, making it the world’s fifth largest exporter of crude oil, and its offshore drilling activities have been subject to a carbon tax since 1991. In 1999, these were increased, and in 2005 Norway joined the EU ETS. By 2018, around 80% of greenhouse gas emissions were taxed, with the highest tax charged on domestic aviation and mineral oil.

While the decarbonisation of Norway’s transport system is one of the three main goals of its National Transport Plan 2018–2029, the majority of the NOK 69.3 billion (USD 7.6 billion) allocated to the transport budget in 2020 still flowed into construction and improvement of roads and highways. However, there is a stated commitment to increase government spending on key public transport projects in the four largest urban areas and reduce ticket prices in the main cities.

In 2019, battery electric vehicles reached a 42% market share. The increasing share of electric cars in new sales has had an impact on the overall share of zero emissions vehicles: by February 2020, 10% of Norway’s car fleet was electric.

In February 2020, Norway submitted its enhanced Paris Agreement target (NDC), which sets a target of reducing emissions by at least 50% and towards 55% below 1990 levels by 2030. We rate Norway’s NDC target as “Almost sufficient”. The “Almost sufficient” rating indicates that Norway’s domestic target in 2030 is not yet consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit but could be, with moderate improvements. If all countries were to follow Norway’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C.

Our assessment is based on the lower end of Norway’s target range (at least 50%). This target is just inside the ‘Almost sufficient’ range. If Norway were to drop the lower bound of its NDC target and move to ‘at least 55%’ to be consistent with the EU’s updated NDC, its target would become 1.5°C compatible based on global least cost modelled domestic pathways

We rate Norway’s target as “Insufficient” when compared with its fair-share emissions allocation. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Norway’s fair share target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. Some of these improvements should be made to the domestic emissions target itself, others could come in the form of additional support for emissions reductions achieved in developing countries in the form of finance. If all countries were to follow Norway’s approach, warming would reach up to 3°C.

Norway’s international public finance contributions are rated “Insufficient”. The country is the only one to meet our benchmark for current contributions based on the 100 billion commitment and is committed to increase its finance in the period post-2020. However, its latest contributions are, on average, lower than they were in the lead up to the Paris Agreement. If Norway were to deliver the proposed increase, it would be rated "Almost sufficient".

Norway’s climate finance is not sufficient to improve the fair share target rating, and the CAT rates the Norway’s overall fair share contribution as insufficient.

Norway has a substantial carbon sink in its forests - equal to around half of Norway’s annual emissions. Forest cover has been increasing. The volume of growing wood stock increased between 2008-2017 by over 23%. According to the national forestry accounting plan, Norway’s average annual removal from this sector will amount to slightly over 24 MtCO₂eq between 2021-2025.

Assessment in progress.