Philippines

Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Summary table

Pledges and targets

The Philippines’ Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is a 70% reduction in GHG emissions below business-as-usual (BAU) projections by 2030, condition on financial, technological and capacity building support (Republic of the Philippines, 2015).

The NDC target does not distinguish LULUCF (land use, land use change and forestry) emissions reductions from the reductions in other sectors and lacks a BAU scenario emissions projections used to quantify the NDC target. The BAU is based on projections developed by the CAT in 2015 since it represents a pathway built with information available during the formulation of the NDC (see Assumptions). If we apply the 70% emissions reductions target to non-LULUCF emissions, the NDC could result in emissions decreasing below 2010 levels (excluding LULUCF) by 2030. If the government expects larger carbon sinks from LULUCF than in our analysis, the contribution from other sectors would need to be lower to achieve the emissions reduction target.

The need for a transformation in all sectors is recognised in the NDC as it states that the Philippines “views the need to peak its emissions as an opportunity to transition as early as it can to an efficient, resilient, adaptive, sustainable clean energy-driven economy, and it is determined to do so with partners from the global community.” Presenting which portion of the commitment should be met by the LULUCF sector and which portion from other sectors would be in line with the mentioned transformation and peaking.

The Climate Change Commission (CCC) has been working with government agencies and civil society to define targets and pathways for the country up to 2040. The National Economic Development Authority (NEDA) is in the process of finalising the NDC, the economy-wide modelling was expected by September 2019 but, as of November 2020, no results have been released (CCC, 2019). National experts indicate that an update is expected before the end of December 2020. The Philippines did not include an unconditional target in its original submission. Including such an unconditional target would be an important aspect of scaling up ambition.

The Philippines’ business-as-usual scenario, against which the NDC is to be measured, has not yet been published as of November 2020. The inclusion of this pathway would increase the Philippines’ transparency and support the assessment of its NDC (see Fair Share).