Philippines

The Philippines' current policies and action are rated as ‘Almost sufficient’ when compared to its fair share contribution to climate change mitigation. The ‘Almost sufficient’ rating indicates that the Philippines’ climate policies and action in 2030 are not yet consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C but could be, with moderate improvements. If all countries were to follow the Philippines’ approach, warming could be held at—but not well below—2°C.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here

The CAT estimates that under current policies the Philippines’ emissions will continue to steeply increase to 334 MtCO₂e by 2030, an 84% increase above 2010 level (excluding LULUCF) aligned with the REF PEP scenario. The Philippines is therefore on track to meet and exceed its unambitious unconditional 2030 target (395 MtCO₂e) without taking additional measures but is far off track from its more ambitious conditional 2030 target (101 MtCO₂e). Under planned policies, the CAT estimates that the Philippines’ emissions will rise slightly less steeply to 295–310 MtCO₂e by 2030 (excluding LULUCF), which remains far from the country’s conditional 2030 NDC target.

In 2024, the government released its new Philippine Energy Plan (PEP) covering the period through 2050. With rapid historical and projected economic growth, high energy costs, and a carbon-intensive power system strained by frequent outages, the Philippines’ energy transition will be central to achieving both its socio-economic and climate goals (ICSC, 2024).

With the PEP 2023–2050, published four years after the implementation of the coal moratorium, the Philippines is increasingly turning to fossil gas as a "transitional fuel," and the plan does not include a phase-out of coal (Department of Energy, 2024b). This reliance on imported fossil gas presents several challenges, including energy security risks from the greater dependence on imported fuel and global market volatility. To align with 1.5°C pathways, developing countries must phase out all coal and unabated fossil gas from their power systems by 2040 (CAT, 2023).

The government is also exploring nuclear energy. It plans to install over 2 GW of nuclear capacity by 2040 under trajectories that include this energy source. This additional nuclear capacity includes commissioning the 612 MW Bataan nuclear reactor, built in the 1980s but never operational, and adding large-scale and small modular reactors. The CAT assesses nuclear as non-viable for solving the climate crisis due to their numerous drawbacks.

Though renewable energy deployment has been sluggish and the PEP’s targets are far from aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, recent policy changes have sparked significant interest from investors. As a result, the country now has a solar and wind project pipeline 12 times larger than its current installed renewable capacity. Building on this momentum, the government could accelerate clean energy deployment: enacting more ambitious targets would send stronger policy signals to stakeholders (CAT, 2023).

In industry, steadily growing energy use, driven largely by manufacturing, continues to draw heavily on coal alongside electricity and diesel. With only a patchwork of largely voluntary measures (such as clinker substitution in cement and cullet use in glass) and modest, economy-wide efficiency gains, there is little in place to structurally bend the emissions curve. Under present policies, coal remains a substantial part of the industrial mix to mid-century, and industrial emissions increase accordingly.

Transport shows more visible policy activity, but it is still too early to change the sector’s trajectory. The government has enacted a suite of measures, Electric Vehicle Industry Development Act (EVIDA) fleet mandates and incentives, temporary tariff relief for EVs and charging components, and the Comprehensive Roadmap for the Electric Vehicle Industry (CREVI), but EV penetration, charging build-out, and supporting market infrastructure remain at early stages relative to targets. As a result, oil continues to dominate transport energy use and sectoral emissions keep climbing in the reference scenario.

The Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change impacts, with the highest disaster risk index worldwide in 2023 (IFHV, 2023). The unprecedented 2024 tropical cyclone season, when six storms, “supercharged” by the effects of climate change, hit the country in the span of one month, has resulted in the displacement of 200,000 people (Carbon Brief, 2024). The 2024 heatwave brought extreme temperatures, with much of the country experiencing dangerous highs reaching 42°C, leading schools to close or reduce in-person classes (Inquirer, 2024).

Adaptation to climate change is at the core of the Philippines’ climate strategy, with mitigation 'pursued in support of adaptation efforts’ (CCC & DENR, 2024). At COP28, the government sealed a USD 10 bn climate finance with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to mobilise low carbon development and climate resilience investments for 2024-2029 (ADB, 2024; Reuters, 2023).

The power sector accounted for 56% of the Philippines’ total energy-related CO₂ emissions in 2022, having more than doubled since 2012. Coal, which accounts for 60% of electricity generation, is responsible for 89% of the sector's emissions (IEA, 2024a).

The PEP 2023–2050 outlines three scenarios for the country's energy future: the Reference Scenario (REF), on which the CAT’s current policy projections are based, and the Clean Energy Scenarios 1 (CES1) and 2 (CES2), where “aggressive targets [are] pursued,” which inform the CAT’s planned policy projections.

Compared to the REF scenario, CES1 and CES2 model faster deployment of renewables, stronger electrification, and higher energy efficiency gains (Department of Energy, 2024). All three scenarios lack a coal phase-out and project an increase in fossil gas-fired generation, supported by liquefied natural gas imports.

The CES are not explicitly contingent on international climate finance; they are policy-driven, investment-enabled pathways, with concessional/blended finance helpful but not a formal precondition.

Coal

Coal power generation has increased substantially and consistently over the past decade, representing 60% of the electricity generation mix in 2023, up from 45% in 2015 (Ember, 2025). Under the PEP’s Reference scenario, which informs the CAT’s current policy projections, coal’s share in the power mix is projected to fall to 46% by 2030 and to 15% by 2050. However, these declines would take place against the backdrop of surging demand, so in absolute terms, coal generation would increase by 18% between 2023 and 2030, from 66 TWh to 78 TWh, then drop a marginal 3% by 2050.

In this scenario, 2 GW of coal-fired capacity is added to the system by 2027 as the 2020 coal moratorium halting development of new greenfield coal-fired power plants does not cover projects already under development and scheduled to begin operations between 2023 and 2027 (Department of Energy, 2024b).

Progress is faster under the two Clean Energy scenarios that underlie the CAT’s planned policy projections, with coal dropping to 20–24% of the generation mix by 2030 and falling to 6–7% by 2050 (Department of Energy, 2024).

None of the PEP scenarios, including the most ambitious, involve a coal phase-out, despite the Philippines' voluntary commitment under the Global Coal to Clean Power Transition pledge (UN Climate Change Conference (COP26), 2021). Because the coal capacity stays stable at nearly 15 GW between 2027 and 2050 in the PEP Reference scenario, the CAT infers that the government does not assume any capacity retirement under this scenario. This ongoing dependence on coal would expose the country to economic and energy security risks, alongside devastating environmental impacts.

The Philippines relies on imports for 70% of its coal supply, 97% of which comes from Indonesia. In January 2022, Indonesia banned coal exports for a month prompting the Philippine Foreign Secretary to request the lifting of the ban (PhilStar, 2022a).

Heavy reliance on imported coal inflates generation costs and worsens price volatility. As of December 2024, the Philippines had the second-highest power prices in ASEAN after Singapore, a country with a vastly different socio-economic structure (PhilStar, 2022b).An analysis attributes high electricity prices to inefficiencies, limited competition, bureaucratic delays, over-taxation, restrictive permitting, market concentration, and conflicting subsidy policies, even if generation costs remain the largest contributor (Ravago, 2022).

Fossil gas and oil

The Philippine government plans to significantly increase its reliance on fossil gas for power generation. In 2023, approximately 15% of the country’s electricity came from fossil gas (ICIS, 2024).

The PEP Reference scenario, on which the CAT’s current policy projections are based, projects fossil gas capacity to increase from 4 GW in 2023 to 6 GW by 2030, then surge to 26 GW by 2050. This would drive a nearly ninefold increase in fossil gas-fired power generation relative to 2023 levels by mid-century (Department of Energy, 2024). The Clean Energy scenarios, underlying the CAT’s planned policy projections, see a similar rise of gas-fired generation to 2030, but a two to three times lower reliance by 2050.

Malampaya, the country’s only major domestic fossil gas field, is nearing depletion and will run dry within a few years (Power Philippines News, 2023a). In anticipation, the government intends to scale up imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which it misleadingly presents as a “transition fuel.” This shift to fossil gas would tie national energy security to a volatile global market, expose the country to future price shocks, and undermine the Philippines' efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Overall, seven LNG terminals are expected to come online between 2023 and 2050. The first two began operating in 2023, coinciding with the country's first LNG imports (IEEFA, 2023). The proposed terminal capacity exceeds projected demand and is unlikely to reduce electricity prices, as imported LNG is more expensive than imported coal (Reynolds, 2022). These projects are already facing obstacles, including complications related to contractual arrangements (IEEFA, 2024).

The fossil gas expansion is being institutionalised through legislative and policy reforms. In January 2025, the government enacted the Natural Gas Industry Development Act, providing a regulatory foundation for long-term LNG integration (Philippine News Agency, 2025). At present, 26 GW of oil and gas-fired capacity are under development, placing the Philippines eighth globally in terms of planned fossil infrastructure (Global Energy Monitor, 2025a).

Fossil fuel activity in the country has already caused environmental harm. In February 2023, an oil tanker sank off the coast of Oriental Mindoro, damaging ecosystems and the livelihoods of nearby communities (Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, 2023).There have been several significant oil spills in the country in recent decades. Local organisations are warning that planned gas infrastructure will exacerbate environmental threats (Cabico, 2023; ProtectVIP, 2024). Much of the new buildout is concentrated in the Batangas area on Luzon, adjacent to the Verde Island Passage, one of the planet’s richest marine biodiversity zones, often referred to as the “Amazon of the oceans” (GOGEL, 2024).

Renewables

In 2023, the total renewable energy capacity in the Philippines stood at 7.8 GW, representing 27% of the country's total installed power capacity. Renewable energy capacity comprised hydro (39%), geothermal (25%), solar (22%), biomass (8%), and wind (6%) (IRENA, 2024).

Renewables generated 22% of the country’s electricity in 2023, down from 25% in 2015, the year of the Paris Agreement. This share has been in steady decline since the early 2000s, when renewables accounted for over 40% (Ember, 2025).

Since 2015, the Philippines has added only 2 GW of renewable energy capacity. This stagnation is attributed to a range of barriers including “political impediments, government support for coal, policy implementation, permitting process, environmental setbacks, cap on foreign ownership, grid connection challenges and misperceptions” (Ricardo, 2022).

The government has since begun to tackle these constraints. In late 2022, it lifted foreign ownership restrictions on renewable projects. Feed-in tariffs were phased out and replaced with the auction-based Green Energy Auction system, complemented by the Renewable Portfolio Standard already in place. In 2022, it auctioned 2 GW of capacity for installation (Bellini, 2022). In 2023, it offered around 13.6 GW of capacity for installation between 2024-2026 (Crismundo, 2023).

This shift in the policy landscape, alongside greater regulatory certainty, has contributed to increased investor interest. As of 2023, the Philippines had the largest solar and wind pipeline in Southeast Asia (Climate Analytics, 2025).

The grid remains a major obstacle to higher renewable penetration. Existing coal plants add inflexibility to the system and are a cause of brownouts. The development of the network is experiencing delays, in part due to governance issues, further hampered by the country’s archipelagic geography. The Philippines' Transmission Development Plan 2024–2050, published at the end of 2024, outlines over ₱ 600bn (approximately 10.2 bn USD) in planned investments to modernise and expand the grid infrastructure (Galang, 2024).

Under the National Renewable Energy Program 2020–2040, the government aims to reach 35% renewable energy in power generation by 2030 and 50% by 2040. These targets have been maintained in the new PEP 2023–2050’s Reference scenario (Department of Energy, 2024b).

Under this trajectory, solar and wind capacity rises from 2 GW in 2023 to 20 GW by 2030, and to 89 GW by 2050. Total renewable capacity reaches 27 GW by 2030 and 107 GW by 2050. This scenario excludes nuclear power (see the section below), and offshore wind enters the mix in 2036, expanding to 7 GW by 2050.

The PEP’s two Clean Energy Scenarios, which underpin the CAT’s planned policy projections, forecast more substantial mid- to long-term renewable expansion. They differ in offshore wind rollout assumptions. Under CES2, renewable capacity hits 31 GW by 2030, compared to 26 GW under CES1, rising to 114 GW and 115 GW respectively by 2050. In both, the share of renewables surpasses the Reference scenario, reaching 41% of electricity generation by 2030 and between 65% and 76% by 2050, based on comparable but slightly lower total demand. Nuclear is part of both scenarios.

CES2 projects offshore wind supplying 9% of generation by 2030 with 4 GW installed between 2028 and 2030, rising to 42% by 2050 with 50 GW capacity. In CES1, offshore wind accounts for 5% and 17% of the mix respectively. A May 2022 World Bank roadmap proposed a scenario with 20 GW of offshore wind by 2040, noting 178 GW in technical potential (World Bank, 2022). In December 2024, the Department of Energy announced that the fifth Green Energy Auction, scheduled for Q3 2025, would focus solely on offshore wind (Department of Energy, 2024b).

Nuclear

The Philippines is re-evaluating nuclear energy as part of its long-term power strategy. The Bataan nuclear power plant, completed in the 1980s, was never brought online after the Chernobyl disaster, but President Marcos Jr. has indicated interest in reviving it (Crismundo, 2022; Wingfield-Hayes, 2023). The Department of Energy has incorporated this possibility into its PEP Clean Energy scenarios, although estimated rehabilitation costs range from one to several billion USD (ABS-CBN News, 2022; Crismundo, 2022; Wingfield-Hayes, 2023)

The current administration has already initiated preliminary steps. In November 2023, the United States and the Philippines signed the Agreement for Cooperation Concerning Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy, a type of treaty known as a 123 Agreement. It established the legal conditions for civil nuclear collaboration between US and Philippine entities, and authorises the transfer of equipment, components, technical information, and nuclear technologies for peaceful energy purposes (U.S. Department of State, 2024a). The agreement entered into force on July 2, 2024 (Gonzales, 2024).

In October 2024, the governments of the Philippines and South Korea signed a Memorandum of Understanding to assess the economic and technical viability of rehabilitating the Bataan plant starting January 2025. South Korean public corporations KEPCO and KHNP previously conducted studies on the plant in 2008 and 2017 (Crismundo, 2024).

Beyond the Bataan plant, the Department of Energy is considering additional nuclear capacity. While the PEP’s Reference Scenario includes no nuclear in the power mix, the Clean Energy Scenarios target 1.2 GW of installed nuclear capacity by 2032, rising to 2.4 GW by 2035 and 4.8 GW by 2050, when it would account for 9% of total power generation (Department of Energy, 2024)

Considering that the Bataan plant has a nameplate capacity of 620 MW, this implies that additional reactors would need to be deployed, including nearly 600 MW before 2032. The Department has expressed interest in small modular reactors. The Energy Secretary stated that part or all of the planned capacity might be delivered through these systems. Several conglomerates have already entered partnerships with foreign companies to evaluate feasibility, siting, and integration (Cruz, 2023; IAEA, 2022a; Mercurio, 2022a; Philippines News Agency, 2024a).

Nuclear electricity generation does not emit CO₂, but the CAT does not see large-scale nuclear as a solution to the climate crisis due to its inherent risks (accidents, proliferation, etc.), high and increasing costs compared to renewable energy alternatives, long construction times, incompatibility with intermittent renewables generation, and its vulnerability to environmental and climate extreme events.

Small modular reactors, while potentially more flexible, inherit many of the same problems. No project using these technologies has been successfully deployed at commercial scale, and multiple initiatives have experienced recent setbacks. Nuclear plants are also exposed to physical climate risks. The Philippines faces recurring typhoons and sits along the Pacific Ring of Fire, where seismic activity amplifies compound hazards to infrastructure and public safety.

Emissions in the industry sector stem both from energy demand and from industrial processes and product use. In 2022, it accounted for 20% of the Philippines' energy demand, while process and product use emissions made up 7% of the country’s total greenhouse gas emissions (Gütschow et al., 2024).

Energy demand is rising steadily with economic growth. It grew by 4% between 2021 and 2022 alone. Over 80% of that new demand came from manufacturing. In 2022, coal supplied over a quarter of industrial energy demand, electricity 35%, and diesel 16% (Department of Energy, 2024).

Energy demand is set to grow sharply under the PEP’s Reference scenario, which underpins the CAT’s current policy projections. Industry sees the highest growth in energy demand across all sectors to 2050. In that scenario, coal still supplies 22% of industrial demand by 2050, tripling in absolute terms, mainly driven by an increased cement production. This significantly contributes to the 45% increase in industrial emissions forecasted by the government between 2023 and 2030 (Department of Energy, 2024).

To align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, the Philippines will need to phase out fossil fuels across all sectors. This will require electrifying end-uses in energy-intensive industries. Energy efficiency policies can also cut demand and speed up decarbonisation.

Under current policies, energy intensity per unit of GDP falls 14% across industry between 2022 and 2030 (18% under the Clean Energy scenarios), but only 5% (or 8%) for energy-intensive industries. The Philippines signed onto the COP28 Global Pledge on Renewables and Energy Efficiency, which calls for a 4% annual decline in primary energy intensity of GDP between 2023 and 2030, globally (IEA, 2023).

The transport sector accounts for around 14% of the Philippines’ greenhouse gas emissions. Under the PEP’s Reference scenario 2023–2050, energy consumption in the transport sector is projected to increase by one third between 2022 and 2030, and by more than half by 2050. In this scenario, oil remains the dominant energy source for this sector, meeting 95% of transport energy demand between 2022 and 2050.

Transport emissions are expected to rise continuously under this scenario, as the share of electricity in the energy mix remains below 2% through 2050. The electric mobility assumptions underlying this trajectory are based on the Comprehensive Roadmap for the Electric Vehicle Industry (CREVI), published in 2023. CREVI’s Business-as-Usual Scenario, which informs the PEP’s Reference scenario, targets a 10% EV fleet share by 2040. This target is described by the Department of Energy itself as “modest.”

In contrast, CREVI’s Clean Energy Scenario, which underpins the PEP’s Clean Energy Scenarios and is reflected in the CAT’s planned policy projections, sets a more ambitious trajectory. It targets a 50% EV fleet share by 2040, with 50% of two and three-wheeler fleets electrified by 2030 (Department of Energy, 2023).

While the pace of action could be slower in developing countries than in wealthier nations, developing countries should still aim to achieve 100% EV sales share by 2040 at the latest to align with 1.5°C pathways. For Indonesia, a country with a broadly similar socio-economic profile as the Philippines, a 1.5°C compatible EV penetration in national vehicle stocks is estimated between 60–90% by 2040, placing the CREVI’s Clean Energy Scenario target outside the lower end of that range.

Despite early policy efforts discussed below, adoption remains slow. In 2024, electric vehicles made up just 4% of new vehicle sales, and this figure is expected to remain stable in 2025 (Monzon, 2025). As of April 2025, the milestone of 900 charging stations had been reached, but is far from CREVI’s Business-as-Usual target of 7,400 stations by 2028, and even further from the 65,000 stations target under the Clean Energy Scenario for the same year (Fuentes, 2025).

Barriers to EV adoption are well documented. A study identified high upfront costs, cheaper diesel prices, and the limited availability of charging stations, repair shops, and parts suppliers as the main reasons behind the low uptake (Guno et al., 2021). CREVIsupports this diagnosis, noting that scepticism toward EV technology, and lack of familiarity with financing options are some of the main obstacles (Department of Energy, 2023).

The Philippine government has enacted multiple policies aimed at addressing these challenges, though their current scale is insufficient to reverse the emissions trajectory. The Electric Vehicle Industry Development Act (EVIDA), enacted in 2022, mandates a 5% EV fleet share for government and corporate fleets and offers incentives to encourage adoption. In 2023, an executive order removed import duties on EVs and suspended taxes on charging station components for five years (Executive Order No. 12, 2023; PhilStar, 2023; Tresvalles, 2023).

CREVI outlines short, medium, and long-term strategies to accelerate deployment, including for two and three-wheelers. The electrification of these vehicles offers an opportunity. The Philippines is one of the largest markets for two and three-wheelers in the ASEAN region (IEA, 2024b). The PEP recognises them as “a primary mode of transport across all regions in the country,” and the IEA describes their electrification as a “promising lever” for decarbonisation and air quality improvement (IEA, 2024b).

Modal shift provides a complementary strategy to reduce fossil fuel demand and traffic congestion, improve transport system efficiency, and deliver co-benefits for public health through lower air pollution. Metro Manila remains one of the most congested cities in the world. Following decades of stagnation, the operational rail network in the country contracted from 1,100 to just 270 kilometres, in part because of natural disasters and lack of investment (Congressional Policy and Budget Research Department of the House of Representatives, 2025).

The government has launched what it calls a “railway renaissance” (Philippines News Agency, 2024b). The proposed Thirty-Year Railway Master Plan aims to expand the rail network almost fivefold, connecting major corridors (Congressional Policy and Budget Research Department of the House of Representatives, 2025). As of May 2024, more than 42 railway projects were under planning or development (Department of Transportation, 2024).

The actual emissions and/or removal levels for the Philippine forestry sector are highly uncertain. National inventory data shows nearly zero emissions from the sector in 1994, but a net sink (removal of CO₂ from the atmosphere) of 105 MtCO₂/yr in 2000, shrinking to 37 MtCO₂e by 2010 (NICCDIES, 2021; UNFCCC, 2017). In 2015, the forestry sector shifted from being a net sink to a net source, emitting 36 MtCO₂e, but returned to its role as a net sink by removing 26 MtCO₂e in 2020 (NICCDIES, 2024). This difference is partly attributed to changes in the definition of forests and the correction of methodological errors.

Commodity-driven deforestation is the dominant driver of tree cover loss in the Philippines (Global Forest Watch, 2022).

The Philippines Development Plan 2023-2028 sets a goal for increasing forest covers from 24.5% in 2023 to 25.23% by 2028 (NEDA, 2023). The document also includes strategies to rehabilitate degraded ecosystems to restore and enhance ecosystem services, thereby protecting communities from the negative impacts of climate change. Some strategies include:

• Scaling up the integration of sustainable land management approaches (e.g., soil and water conservation measures, climate-smart technologies) into local plans and policies;
• Strengthening and improving the efficiency of land administration, particularly by streamlining regulatory mechanisms for land titling;
• Promote and developing more biodiversity-friendly enterprises and ecotourism sites both within and outside protected areas;
• Partnering with other stakeholders to establish market-based mechanisms, such as payments for ecosystem services (PES), that support natural resource conservation measures and accelerate ecosystems and habitat rehabilitation and restoration.

The Philippines signed the Global Methane Pledge at COP26, a significant step as methane emissions were 83 MtCO₂e in 2022, or 32% of total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF (Gütschow et al., 2023). In that year, agriculture accounted for the largest share of methane (61%), followed by waste (25%) and energy (14%).

The Philippines' 2030 NDC target covers methane, but there is no explicit reduction target (Philippines Government, 2021). With methane emissions accounting for 82.5 MtCO₂e in 2020 (the pledge reference year), the Philippines would need to reduce methane emissions to 58 MtCO₂e by 2030 to meet the 30% below 2020 levels reduction target from the Global Methane Pledge.