The historical GHG emissions between 1990 and 2021 are taken from the PRIMAP database (Gütschow & Pflüger, 2023).
For the LULUCF sector, the historical GHG emissions data is taken from UNFCCC database as officially reported by the country for years 1994 and 2000, and 2010 emissions were taken from the government website (NICCDIES, 2021; UNFCCC, 2017).
NDC and other targets
The updated NDC target is based on a cumulative BAU of 3,340.3 MtCO2e for the period of 2020-2030; however, the update does not include any details on how this BAU was calculated. An annual sector by sector breakdown was subsequently published by the Climate Change Commission (CCC, 2022). We use this information as the basis of our calculations.
The NDC update and CCC document do not mention the Global Warming Potential values used. The CCC has used GWP from the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in past stakeholder consultations and so we assume that that is the basis upon which these NDC calculations have been prepared (Climate Change Commission, 2020).
The NDC update and CCC document to not explicitly discuss the role of the land sector in the NDC target. The 3,340.3 MtCO2e cumulative BAU does include LULUCF, the details for which are provided in the CCC’s document. The NDC update describes the target sectoral coverage as ‘agriculture, wastes, industry, transport, and energy’. We take this statement to mean that efforts in the land sector do not fall within the scope of the Philippines’ target. According to the CCC’s figures, the land use represents a small net sink in 2020 (-24 MtCO2e), which will shrink over the course of the decade to become a small source of emissions in 2030 (3.8 MtCO2e).
We apply the target reductions to the 2030 BAU value provided in the CCC’s document to calculate 2030 emissions including LULUCF. As the CAT excludes LULUCF from its analysis and the Philippines will not rely on LULUCF measures to achieve its NDC target, we subtract the LULUCF BAU emissions (3.8 MtCO2e) to derive the target value excluding LULUCF.
Current policy projections
We derive our current policies projection from two principle sources: the 8th edition of the APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook and the new Philippines Energy Plan 2020-2040.
The lower end of the range is based on the APEC reference scenario (APEC, 2022). This scenario is based on recent trends and current policies, however it is guided by an older Philippines Energy Plan 2018-2040 as well as the AmBisyon Natin 2040 and the “Build Build Build” Program with energy supply and demand continuing to increase. The APEC reference scenario follows recent trends in energy efficiency and renewable energy.
APEC scenarios only include energy related CO2 data. To calculate remaining GHG emissions, the CAT has combined the APEC scenario with non-CO2 energy data, estimated using a 5-year historical trend, and using the growth rates for non-CO2 data from the US EPA (2019). All projections data was harmonised with the latest historical year.
The upper end of the range is based on the Philippines Energy Plan (2020-2040) reference scenario (Department of Energy, 2022). The PEP 2020-2040 provides emissions for the energy sector, which we add to non-energy CO2 and non-CO2 emissions using the same approach as the lower end (described above).
The PEP 2020-2040 reference scenario includes the current biofuels blending (2% biodiesel, 10% bioethanol) until 2040, 5% electric vehicles uptake by 2040 and current energy efficiency and conservation efforts maintained to 2040.
Both the PEP and APEC scenarios account for the impact of COVID-19.
The current policies and action emissions range accounts for the coal moratorium under the PEP 2020-2040 reference scenario. However, there is still an additional 2.6 GW of coal capacity of additional coal capacity added by 2025 in this scenario. Given the uncertainty of the global energy crisis, the CAT accounts for some uncertainty over the moratorium dates.
The APEC reference scenario does not assume coal capacity is capped, and therefore does not anticipate the coal moratorium is maintained. APEC also produce a Carbon Neutral scenario, which does account for the coal moratorium, but the impacts are only seen by 2030. The CAT uses the APEC reference scenario to 2030 and takes the same assumption as the Carbon Neutral scenario that additional capacity may continue to 2030. Other moratoriums have been lifted in the past. The Department of Energy had a moratorium in oil and gas activities in the West Philippines sea, which was lifted for energy security reasons (APEC, 2022).
The PEP 2020-2040 includes a clean energy scenario (CES) based on clean energy targets, so this is not considered under the CAT current policy and actions trajectory or planned policies. However, when applying the same calculations as applied to the PEP 2020-2040 reference scenario as mentioned above, the CES scenario falls within the CAT current policies and action range.
For reference, the clean energy scenario assumes a 35% and 50% share of renewable energy in power generation in 2030 and 2040 respectively. It includes a 5% blending for biodiesel from 2022, a 1.5% increase in fossil gas consumption in transport and industry, a 10% penetration of EVs by 2040, 5% energy savings in oil products and electricity by 2040 and 12% reduction in GHG emissions for the NDC.
Global Warming Potentials values
The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for all its figures and time series. Assessments completed prior to December 2018 (COP24) used GWP values from the Second Assessment Report (SAR).
Please see the NDC section for the assumptions made in calculating that figure.