Philippines

In 2021, the Philippines submitted an updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 75% below a cumulative business as usual (BAU) pathway for 2020-2030. Most of this commitment is conditional on international support. A small fraction, 2.71% of the 75% targeted emissions avoidance, is unconditional. The curent NDC also refers to an aspirational target to peak emissions by 2030 (Philippines Government, 2021).

The Philippines unconditional 2030 target is not ambitious and will not drive real world emissions reductions. The Philippines unconditional target, excluding LULUCF, is 18% above where the CAT projects the country’s emissions to be under current policies by 2030. In other words, the Philippines will meet and exceed this target without taking further action. We rate this target against the Philippines’ fair share contribution to achieving the 1.5°C limit and consider it to be ‘Insufficient'. By contrast, the Philippines’ conditional 2030 target is ambitious, and we rate it as ‘1.5°C global least cost’ compatible compared to modelled domestic pathways.

The Philippines does not have a net zero target.

2030 NDC targets

The Philippines submitted an updated 2030 target in April 2021 (Philippines Government, 2021). It updated its conditional target from 70% below an undisclosed business as usual (BAU) emissions trajectory to 75% below a defined cumulative 2020-2030 BAU emissions trajectory of 3,340.3 MtCO₂e. The CAT estimates that the updated conditional target equates to 101 MtCO₂e in 2030 excl. LULUCF.

The updated conditional 2030 NDC target is ‘1.5°C global least cost’ compatible when compared to the level of emissions reductions needed within the country’s borders. The Philippines will need international support to achieve this target: it is not on track to achieve this target based on current policies and will need to adopt further measures with international support.

In a positive development, for the first time, the Philippines Government has set an unconditional 2030 target in its NDC update. A small fraction, 2.71% of its 75% below BAU target, is unconditional. The unconditional target is well above where the country’s emissions are expected to be in 2030 under current policies. As it will not drive real world emission reductions, we do not consider it to have strengthened the country’s ambition.

The Philippines' unconditional 2030 NDC target is rated as ‘Insufficient’ compared to its fair share contribution.

* Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target.

The Philippines has put forward two targets in its 2030 NDC: one that it will achieve using its own resources, and one that requires international support. We rate the country’s unconditional target against its fair share contribution and its conditional target against the level of reductions needed according to the modelled domestic pathways.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.

The ‘1.5°C global least cost’ rating indicates that the Philippines' conditional 2030 target is consistent with modelled domestic pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C. The Philippines’ conditional target does not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions or greater effort.

Developing countries like the Philippines will need international support to achieve emissions reductions in line with our 1.5°C modelled domestic pathways.

The ‘Insufficient’ rating indicates that the Philippines’ unconditional 2030 target needs substantial improvements to be consistent with its fair share of the global mitigation effort to limit warming to 1.5°C.

The Philippines’ target is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort and is not consistent with the 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. If all countries were to follow the Philippines’ approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

The Philippines does not have a net zero or long-term target.