Philippines

The Philippines has submitted an updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 75% below a cumulative business as usual (BAU) pathway for 2020-2030 (Philippines Government, 2021). Most of this commitment is conditional on international support. A small fraction, 2.71% of the 75% targeted emissions avoidance, is unconditional. The 2021 NDC also refers to an aspirational target to peak emissions by 2030 (Philippines Government, 2021).

The Philippines unconditional target is not ambitious and will not drive real world emissions reductions. The target level, excluding LULUCF, is 8% - 13% above where we project the country’s emissions to be under current policies in 2030. In other words, the Philippines will meet and exceed this target without taking further action. We rate this target against the Philippines’ fair share contribution to achieving the 1.5°C limit and consider it to be “Insufficient”. Following how the Philippines has chosen to express its NDC, an unconditional target of around 34% below BAU (incl. LULUCF) would be consistent with its 1.5°C fair share contribution.

By contrast, the Philippines’ conditional target is ambitious and we rate it as “1.5°C compatible” when compared to the level of reductions needed within the Philippines’ borders and for which the Philippines will need international support to achieve.

The NDC notes that mitigation actions will strengthen the country’s resilience and adaptive capacity. In addition to mitigation actions, research finds that building up adaptive capacity and resilience is crucial for countries vulnerable to climate change, such as the Philippines (Monsod et al., 2021). The scope of the CAT rating does not cover adaptation efforts.

The Philippines submitted an updated target in April 2021 (Philippines Government, 2021). Some key information for understanding the nature of the target is missing from both the first NDC and the update, which makes assessing any increase in ambition difficult. We have relied on subsequent material published by the Philippines’ Climate Change Commission to aid our analysis (see Assumptions tab for the full details).

The Philippines updated its conditional target from 70% below an undisclosed business as usual (BAU) emissions trajectory to 75% below a defined cumulative 2020-2030 BAU emissions trajectory of 3,340.3 MtCO₂e. The CAT estimates that the updated conditional target equates to 96 MtCO₂e in 2030 excl. LULUCF. This target falls within the lower end of the range that the CAT had derived for the first NDC, using our own BAU assumptions.

The updated target is “1.5°C global least cost” compatible when compared to the level of emissions reductions needed within the country’s borders. The Philippines will need international support to achieve this target. It is not on track to achieve this target based on current policies and will need to adopt further measures with international support.

In a positive development, for the first time, the Philippines Government has set an unconditional target in its NDC update. A small fraction, 2.71% of its 75% below BAU target, is unconditional. However, the unconditional target is well above where the country’s emissions are expected to be in 2030 under current policies. As it will not drive real world emission reductions, we do not consider it to have strengthened the country’s ambition and thus classify it as such on our climate target tracker page.

The CAT updated its rating methodology in September 2021. Prior to that date, we only rated government's target against their fair share contribution. Now, we rate the government's targets and policies (and provision of climate finance where relevant) against both fairness metrics and the level of emission reductions needed within the country to achieve 1.5°C.

Under the old approach, we normally based our ratings on the top end of an unconditional target. In instances where a country did not have an unconditional target, we would rate their conditional target, but downgrade the rating by one category due to this conditionality. Our rating of the Philippines’ first NDC, which only included a conditional target, followed this approach. This target fell within the “1.5°C compatible” range of our former rating system, but was downgraded to “2°C compatible” because of its conditionality. Under the new rating system, conditional targets from developing countries are assessed against the level of reductions needed within their borders, with international support.

As noted above, the Philippines’ updated conditional NDC target is rated as “1.5°C global least cost” compatible based on our updated rating methodology. Unconditional targets continue to be rated against a fair share contribution. We rate the Philippines’ new unconditional target as “Insufficient”. The target would need to be strengthened to around a 34% reduction from BAU, from its 2.71% level, to represent a fair contribution. Country targets are rated as a package – we combine the two target ratings by averaging.

The final element of the NDC update is an aspirational goal to peak emissions by 2030. However, to achieve its conditional target, the Philippines will need to peak emissions as soon as possible and then start cutting them. It will need international support to adopt such measures.

* Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target.

The CAT rates NDC targets against what a fair contribution to achieving the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit would be, as well as against what needs to happen within a country’s own borders. The Philippines will need international support to achieve the required reductions within its borders.

The Philippines’s NDC target includes a portion that is unconditional, that it will achieve using its own resources. We rate that portion against its fair share contribution. The full NDC target will require international support to achieve, and we rate that against the level of reductions needed within the Philippines’s border.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.

The “1.5°C global least cost” rating indicates that Philippines’ conditional target is consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. This rating compares the Philippines’ conditional target against global least cost 1.5°C modelled domestic emissions pathway. The Philippines’ conditional target does not require other countries to make comparably deeper reductions. However, it does require international support to achieve.

The Philippines’ conditional target is estimated to be 96 MtCO₂e by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).

The Philippines’ unconditional mitigation target is inconsistent with a 1.5°C pathway when compared to its fair share contribution. For the target to be aligned with 1.5°C, it would need to reach absolute emissions of 260 MtCO₂e or below in 2030.

We estimate the Philippines’ unconditional domestic target to be 384 MtCO₂e by 2030 (excl. LULUCF). The CAT rates this target as “Insufficient”. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that the Philippines’ unconditional target needs substantial improvements to be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The Philippines target is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort, and is not consistent with the 1.5°C temperature limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. If all countries were to follow the Philippines’ approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

Since our last assessment, for the Philippines' fair share contribution we have changed both what we are rating and the rating itself. Previously, we rated the Philippines as “2°C compatible”, but this rating was given under our old rating system and in relation to its conditional target (the only one it had at the time). The conditional target actually fell in the “1.5°C compatible” range but was downgraded due to its conditionality (see NDC update section above for further details). The Philippines adopted an unconditional target in its updated NDC. We rate this target against a fair share contribution and find it to be “Insufficient”.

The Philippines does not have a net zero or long-term target.

The Philippines did not set a 2020 target.