Historical emissions levels are taken from the inventory data submitted to the UNFCCC until the last available year, here 2020 (Russian Federation, 2022b).
To estimate emissions for 2021, we applied a gas-by-gas approach. We applied growth rates from PRIMAP to historic 2020 emissions for each gas (Gütschow & Pflüger, 2022).
NDC and other targets
The NDC target is calculated using LULUCF projections from the Fourth Biennial Report to the UNFCCC and historic emissions from the latest inventory data (Russian Federation, 2019a, 2022b). For the 2030 NDC target, we assume that LULUCF emissions are included in the NDC target.
The 2060 net zero target is calculated by assuming that Russia’s LULUCF sink for 2050 (-1200 MtCO2e) would remain constant until 2060 (Russian Federation, 2022c). We make this assumption because Russia’s LTS does not have a projection to 2060 which would outline what the level of reductions required to reach net zero emissions.
Current policy projections
The lower bound of our current policy projection until 2030 is primarily based on the World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2021 Stated Policy scenario projections for CO2 from energy related activities (IEA, 2021b). For non-CO2 emissions, we use the US EPA’s growth rates for non-CO2 emissions and extrapolate the historical trend (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2019). We harmonised these projections to our 2021 estimate.
The upper bound of our current policy projection until 2030 is primarily based on the APEC Outlook for Russia for CO2 emissions (APEC, 2022). While CO2 from industrial processes is included in WEO 2021 projections, we assume that it is not included in APEC projections because the ratio of CO2 emissions from industry to total CO2 emissions is lower in APEC than WEO projections (APEC, 2022; IEA, 2021b). Therefore, we adjusted the APEC scenario by applying the ratio of WEO’s industry emissions to total CO2e to calculate additional CO2 emissions from industrial processes for APEC industry CO2 emissions. For non-CO2 emissions, we use the US EPA’s growth rates for non-CO2 emissions and extrapolate the historical trend (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2019). We harmonised these projections to our 2021 estimate.
Previously, we quantified a flaring gas limit and a renewable electricity generation target. We have excluded these targets from the scenario because current policies do not indicate that these targets will be met.
Both the WEO and APEC scenarios take into consideration the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The CAT has not quantitatively assessed the long-term effect of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine and its numerous implications, for example with regards to a decrease in fossil fuel exports or potential economic decline in Russia.
Global Warming Potentials
The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for all its figures and time series. Assessments completed prior to December 2018 (COP24) used GWP values from the Second Assessment Report (SAR).