Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia’s emissions are on a steep upward trajectory and are projected to continue rising through to 2035. No recent policy developments suggest a shift capable of slowing this growth or reducing the country’s dependence on fossil fuels. The government’s plans to cut emissions by expanding renewable energy have largely failed to materialise. Saudi Arabia’s goal to generate 50% of its electricity with renewables by 2030 remains aspirational at best. In 2024, renewables only made up 2% its power mix, highlighting the persistent gap between ambition and implementation.

Despite its "Vision 2030" diversification plan, initiated nearly a decade ago, oil export revenues remain the backbone of the Saudi economy. These revenues, funnelled partly through the Saudi sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), have done little to advance the country’s energy transition. Instead, revenues have been directed toward mega-projects and other technology ventures.

Flagship climate strategies, such as the Saudi Green Initiative, have so far avoided tackling the real driver of emissions: fossil fuel production and consumption. As the world’s largest crude oil exporter, Saudi Arabia is responsible for a significant share of global emissions, with emissions from burning exported oil in other countries amounting to more than twice the level of its domestic emissions.

At the same time, Saudi Arabia itself faces mounting climate risks: temperatures in the country are already rising faster than the global average, with projections suggesting warming of around 4°C this century under current global policies. The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) rates Saudi Arabia’s overall climate action as "Critically Insufficient."

Saudi Arabia’s emissions trajectory shows no sign of bending downwards in the coming decade. On the contrary, according to the latest CAT estimates, its emissions are projected to rise to 819–845 MtCO₂e in 2030 (excl. LULUCF); representing a 12–­15% increase from 2023 levels and a slight upward revision from the CAT's previous projections. Saudi Arabia already has one of the world’s highest per capita emission levels, well above levels in the US, Canada, or Australia.

Assessing progress toward Saudi Arabia’s current 2030 NDC target remains challenging, given the target's lack of transparency. Its 2030 emissions target is pegged to an opaque baseline scenario that makes progress and ambition nearly impossible to measure. Notably, the target is based on a scenario with substantial fossil fuel exports and includes a "get-out clause" if international climate change policies negatively affect these exports.

The CAT's analysis suggests that this target could result in domestic emissions ranging from 535–817 MtCO₂e in 2030 (excl. LULUCF); a range that spans from a 27% reduction to a 12% increase above 2023 levels. The ambiguity of Saudi Arabia’s climate commitments undermines transparency and accountability at a time when emissions should be on a clearly declining trajectory.

In 2021, Saudi Arabia announced a net zero target for 2060 but has neither released any additional information on this objective nor enshrined it in law, giving the target little credibility. The net zero target also relies on the extensive deployment of carbon, capture and storage (CCS) technologies, despite the fact they are not commercially viable, nor proven at scale.

Despite repeatedly announcing ambitious renewable energy targets, Saudi Arabia has made little tangible progress in the last decade. Its latest target aims for 50% of the country's electricity to be generated with renewable energy by 2030. Yet, as of 2024, renewables generated only 2% of electricity, rendering the 2030 target increasingly infeasible. While the pace of renewable capacity additions has picked up slightly in the last two years, total installed capacity remains modest at just 4.7 GW. In contrast, Saudi Arabia had 97 GW of oil and gas plants in operation, alongside a pipeline of over 8 GW of fossil fuelled power plants under construction as of August 2024.

Saudi Arabia’s emissions are driven by its continuous dependence on oil production, consumption, and export. Saudi Arabia is still among the world’s largest fossil fuel exporters. Aramco, the national oil company, maintains a high production capacity of 12 million barrels per day and can quickly ramp up output at the government’s request. This entrenched dependency could expose Saudi Arabia to legal challenges. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) recently confirmed that states have a binding legal duty to prevent environmental harm from climate change, effectively opening the door to legal action.

Despite its Vision 2030 economic diversification plan, the country remains heavily reliant on oil export revenues, which provides significant funding to its sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF). Rather than primarily directing these revenues toward accelerating the country’s energy transition, the PIF has prioritised mega-projects, such as NEOM city and investments in artificial intelligence.

Saudi Arabia has a track record of obstructing international climate negotiations. The government has repeatedly opposed references to the 1.5°C warming limit and language related to the phase-out of fossil fuels. At COP29, Saudi Arabia sought to undermine the pledge to transition away from fossil fuels agreed at COP28. Such actions raise concerns about the country’s willingness to engage in meaningful climate action on the global stage.

The new round of NDC submissions and the upcoming COP30 will be a crucial test for Saudi Arabia. The country has the chance to change course, reset its approach and assume a more constructive role in international climate negotiations. A first step would be to set an ambitious 2035 emissions reductions target and improve the clarity and formulation of its existing targets. Doing so, would bring the government's climate commitments more in line with the Paris Agreement, while allowing observers to more accurately track progress, evaluate ambition, and hold the government accountable.

To improve its climate action, Saudi Arabia should take the following steps:

• Develop a credible economic diversification plan away from fossil fuels, which is both compatible with the Paris Agreement and takes into account the risks associated with exporting fossil fuels in a world heading to net zero emissions. This plan should include a clear commitment to ending new investments in oil and gas production and a phase-out of fossil fuels in line with a 1.5°C scenario.
• Significantly accelerate renewable energy deployment, which would help drive decarbonisation efforts and stimulate sustainable job growth for its young population, all of which are already objectives of the Vision 2030 agenda. A nation’s claim to leadership in green hydrogen exports is only credible once it has substantially increased its domestic use of renewable energy.
• Submit a 2035 NDC and strengthen its 2030 target, providing an absolute emissions reductions target (instead of a reduction below an uncommunicated baseline scenario) and clarifying the assumptions on the land use and forestry sector.
• Clarify the assumptions behind its 2060 net zero target, which currently lacks transparency and credibility, and does not provide a clear emissions reductions pathway.

There are, however, a few positive developments worth highlighting:

• Saudi Arabia is ramping up its investment in renewable energy, with the government announcing plans to build 15 GW of solar and wind farms through USD 8.3bn investment by a consortium led by Saudi utilities giant ACWA Power.
• Some progress is also visible in the transport sector, with the operationalised Riyadh Metro, expanded rail connectivity, and mobilised investments in local EV manufacturing under Vision 2030. However, private car use and diesel freight still dominate, keeping transport emissions high.

The CAT rates each country’s targets and policies against (1) its fair share contribution to climate change mitigation considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability and equality, and (2) what is technically and economically feasible using modelled domestic pathways which, in absence of a better method, are based on global least-cost climate change mitigation.

Comparing a country’s fair share ranges and modelled domestic pathways provides insights into which governments should provide climate finance and which should receive it. Developed countries with large responsibility for historical emissions and high per-capita emissions, must not only implement ambitious climate action domestically but must also support climate action in developing countries with lower historical responsibility, capability, and lower per-capita emissions.

The CAT rates Saudi Arabia’s climate targets and policies as "Critically insufficient." This rating indicates that Saudi Arabia’s climate policies and commitments reflect minimal to no action and are not at all consistent with the 1.5°C temperature limit.

Saudi Arabia is far from meeting its fair share contribution to climate change mitigation. Its 2030 climate commitment is unclear, as the government has not published the baseline corresponding to its Paris Agreement target.

We rate Saudi Arabia’s NDC target both as "Critically insufficient" when compared with its fair-share contribution to climate action, and "Critically insufficient" when compared to modelled domestic pathways, downscaled from global least-cost scenarios.

To improve its rating, Saudi Arabia needs to set more ambitious climate targets and establish associated policies that can curb the growth in national emissions and set them on a downward trend.

The CAT rates Saudi Arabia’s policies and actions as "Highly Insufficient" when compared to fair share. This rating indicates that Saudi Arabia’s climate policies and action in 2030 lead to rising, rather than falling emissions and are not consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Saudi Arabia’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C.

Saudi Arabia remains highly dependent on fossil fuel revenues and continues advocating for unproven solutions, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS), in the hope of prolonging the profitability of its extractive fossil fuel industry. The government has put forward several mitigation measures, but implementation has been slow, particularly in the energy sector. Despite its vast solar energy resource, Saudi Arabia had only installed about 4.7 GW of renewable energy capacity in 2024, generating approximately 2% of total electricity.

Since our previous assessment, Saudi Arabia’s policies and action rating has changed from 'Critically insufficient' to 'Highly insufficient' when compared to fair share. Importantly, this adjustment does not indicate any actual improvement in Saudi Arabia’s policies compared to our previous assessment. Rather, it reflects a literature update to our fair share (FS) ranges, aligning our equity approaches with international environmental law and excluding studies based solely on cost-effectiveness. We also incorporated additional recent studies to capture the latest research in the field.

The full policies and action analysis can be found here.

The CAT rates Saudi Arabia’s NDC target as "Critically insufficient" when compared to modelled domestic pathways. This rating indicates that Saudi Arabia’s NDC target reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with the 1.5°C temperature limit when compared to modelled domestic pathways. If all countries were to follow Saudi Arabia’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

The CAT rates Saudi Arabia’s NDC target compared to fair share as "Highly insufficient." This rating indicates that Saudi Arabia’s NDC target in 2030 is not at all consistent with its fair share of the global mitigation effort to limit warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Saudi Arabia’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C.

Since our previous assessment, Saudi Arabia’s NDC target rating has changed from 'Critically insufficient' to 'Highly insufficient' when compared to fair share. Importantly, this adjustment does not indicate any actual improvement in Saudi Arabia’s targets compared to our previous assessment. Rather, this reflects a literature update to our fair share (FS) ranges, aligning our equity approaches with international environmental law and excluding studies based solely on cost-effectiveness. We also incorporated additional recent studies to capture the latest research in the field.

The CAT evaluates the net zero target as: Poor.

Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced Saudi Arabia’s net zero target for 2060 at the first Saudi Green Initiative Forum in October 2021. However, the target has yet to be enshrined in law or a policy document.

Since its initial announcement in 2021, the Saudi government has not provided any further detailed information on scope, target architecture, or transparency. Saudi Arabia has not yet provided a clear emissions reductions pathway to net zero. The emission coverage remains unclear. The CAT assumes that only CO₂ emissions are covered given the lack of information.