Saudi Arabia

This assessment includes our policy analysis from 22 September 2020 translated into our new rating methodology without new analysis of Saudi Arabia’s climate policies since then. We will fully analyse Saudi Arabia in the coming months and the rating may change

The CAT rates Saudi Arabia’s climate targets and policies as “Critically insufficient”. The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that Saudi Arabia’s climate policies and commitments reflect minimal to no action and are not at all consistent with the Paris Agreement.

Saudi Arabia’s 2030 climate commitment is highly unclear, due to a lack of data availability, including the absence of any national emissions projections and the fact that Saudi Arabia has not published the baseline corresponding to its Paris Agreement target. Saudi Arabia’s 2030 emissions reduction target is rated as “Critically insufficient” both when compared to modelled emissions pathways and when compared with its fair-share contribution to climate action. Under Saudi Arabia’s current targets and policies, emissions will continue to rise and are consistent with more than 4°C warming. Saudi Arabia needs to set a more ambitious target for emissions reductions and implement associated policies to get a better rating.

We rate Saudi Arabia’s policies and actions as “Critically insufficient”. The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that Saudi Arabia’s policies and action in 2030 reflect minimal to no action and are not at all consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. If all countries were to follow Saudi Arabia’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

Saudi Arabia has put few climate policies in place, and diversification away from an oil-based economy has been slow. In early 2019, the government announced a new renewable energy target aiming to achieve 27.3 GW by 2023 and 57.8 GW by 2030, as part of its “Vision 2030” strategy. These new targets are higher than those issued in 2016, which aimed for 9.5 GW of renewable energy by 2023. Progress to date has, however, been slow: only about 0.4 GW of renewable energy capacity had been installed by 2019. According to its “Vision 2030”, Saudi Arabia is also working on a phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies. In December 2017, however, the Saudi government announced it would slow down this fossil fuel subsidy phase-out to enhance the economy.

The CAT current policy emissions projections for Saudi Arabia are 6–9% lower in 2030 compared to our previous projections in December 2019, due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on emissions.

Saudi Arabia needs to put in place more stringent policies to improve its “Critically Insufficient” policies and action rating.

The full policies and action analysis can be found here.

We rate the proposed 2030 reduction target levels as “Critically insufficient” when compared to domestic pathways (derived from global least cost modelled domestic pathways). The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that Saudi Arabia’s internationally supported target in 2030 reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. If all countries were to follow Saudi Arabia’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

We rate Saudi Arabia’s NDC “Critically insufficient”. The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that Saudi Arabia’s fair share target in 2030 reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. Saudi Arabia’s target is not in line with any interpretation of a fair approach to meeting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. If all countries were to follow Saudi Arabia’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

Saudi Arabia does not have a net zero target.