Singapore

Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming of greater than 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming over 2°C and up to 3°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with holding warming below, but not well below, 2°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. No “role model” rating has been developed for the sectors.

1.5°C Compatible< 1.5°C World

Global Warming Potentials

Previous assessments of the Climate Action Tracker used the global warming potentials (GWPs) from the IPCC’s Second Assessment Report (SAR). For this assessment we have updated all figures and time series to GWPs from the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). We have converted these values to GWP from the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) using the gas by gas information reported in the national communications.

Historical emissions

Singapore provided a national greenhouse gas inventory for 1994, 2000, 2010, 2012, and 2014, and emissions projections for 2020 for a business as usual (BAU) scenario. Data for emissions in between 1994 and 2000 was calculated using linear interpolation and emissions between 2000 and 2014 were taken from the figures presented in the Biennial Update Reports (National Environment Agency, 2014)(National Environment Agency, 2018). For emissions between 1990 and 1993, we have applied growth rated from the PRIMAP database to the reported historical emissions in 1994 (Gütschow, Jeffery, & Gieseke, 2019).

Singapore is a city-state with one of the highest population densities in the world and is nearly completely dependent on imports for food. Most of the remaining natural areas are sanctuaries. We therefore do not consider emissions related to LULUCF sector for the analysis, as they are negligible.

Pledge

For the 2020 emissions target we use the business-as-usual (BAU) emissions projected in 2020 according to the National Climate Change Strategy – 77.2 MtCO₂e in 2020 – and apply target reduction rates directly (National Climate Change Secretariat, 2012). Given that the Global Warming Potential used for the BAU scenario is not specified we assume this level to be AR4 GWP.

The target emissions levels we use are taken from Singapore’s NDC, where it is clarified that to achieve the 2030 Emissions Intensity level, Singapore’s emissions are expected to stabilise at around 65 MtCO₂e based on current projected growth. We have converted this target to AR4 GWP making by assuming the same GDP for 2030 (578.020 million SGD in 2030 based on target emissions levels and emissions intensity) and calculating new emissions intensities based on inventory data converted to AR4 GWP, which moves up the 2030 target to 68 MtCO₂e.

Current policy projections

Our current policy emissions pathway relies on energy related CO₂ emissions projections of the 6th edition of the energy outlook of the Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC, 2015) and on non-CO₂ projections from the United States Environment Protection Agency (US EPA, 2012); which constitute the most up-to date emissions projections for the country. Given that both sources present differences with historical values reported in the emissions inventory, we harmonise with historical values by applying growth rates from the projections to the last reported year (2014).

Since APERC’s energy outlook includes projections only for energy-related CO₂ emissions, for our current policy pathway we assume that non-energy related CO₂ emissions will remain constant for the whole projection period at the last historical data level available, corresponding to 2010 (IEA, 2014). This assumption is done due to lack of projections for this type of emissions and taking into account their small and decreasing share in total emissions (4% in 1990 and 1% from 2005 to 2010).

We excluded emissions from marine and aviation bunkers when calculating the comparability range which determines the rating. These emissions are nearly three times higher than the rest of Singapore's emissions—with the great majority being related to Singapore’s role as a hub in international shipping.