Singapore

Singapore updated its NDC in November 2022, bringing down its absolute emissions limit from 65 MtCO₂e in 2030 to 60 MtCO₂e in 2030 and bringing forward its emissions peak from ‘around 2030’ to before 2030 (Singapore Government, 2022). The CAT rates Singapore's target as "Highly insufficient" when rated against modelled domestic pathways and when compared to its fair share contribution. Singapore has not adopted a conditional target or an international element in its NDC, so we rate its unconditional target against the two rating frameworks.

Singapore submitted a stronger target on 04 November 2022.

Singapore’s initial NDC target was a reduction of emissions intensity of GDP by 36% below 2005 levels (0.176 gCO₂e/SGD as specified in the NDC) by 2030 and stabilising emissions, aiming for them to peak around 65 MtCO₂e in 2030 (Republic of Singapore, 2015). The first NDC update reframed that commitment, going from an emissions intensity target to an absolute emissions limit, which is a good structural change, but the update did not increase the ambition of the target compared to the initial NDC (Singapore Government, 2020).

In 2022, Singapore submitted a further NDC update, strengthening its emissions limit, from 65 MtCO₂e to 60 MtCO₂e in 2030 and bringing forward its peaking year, from ‘around 2030’ to before 2030, though it did not mention a specific year in which emissions will peak.

While Singapore has strengthened its target, this does not replace the need for Singapore to set more ambitious climate targets, substantially scale up climate action, and reduce absolute GHG emissions in the medium term as we still rate it ‘Highly insufficient’ overall.

* Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target

Target development timeline & previous CAT analysis

• 28.02.2020: Singapore’s proposed NDC update does not further limit GHG emissions beyond its earlier NDC
• 31.03.2020 Singapore’s NDC update does not further limit GHG emissions beyond its first NDC

The CAT rates NDC targets against each country’s fair share contribution to global climate change mitigation, considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability, and equality. The CAT also rates NDC targets against indicative national emissions from global least-cost emissions pathways (called modelled domestic pathways). For assessing targets against the fair share, we consider both a country’s domestic emissions reductions and any emissions it supports abroad through the use of market mechanisms or other ways of support, as relevant.

Singapore has indicated that it may use market mechanisms to achieve its target but has not provided any details on the extent of such usage. In the absence of any clarity on the extent of usage, we have rated its NDC target against both domestic and fairness metrics.

While CAT modelled domestic pathways do not reflect Singapore’s particularly low domestic RE potential, these pathways do reflect the rapid decarbonisation in the Southeast Asian region that Singapore should follow, if not lead. Given its context, Singapore can play an even larger role in driving regional decarbonisation and energy collaboration.

The CAT rates Singapore's NDC target as "Highly insufficient" when compared against modelled domestic pathways. The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Singapore’s domestic target in 2030 leads to rising, rather than falling, emissions and is not at all consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Singapore’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C.

The CAT also rates Singapore's NDC target as "Highly insufficient" when rated against its fair share contribution. The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Singapore’s NDC target in 2030 leads to rising, rather than falling, emissions and is not at all consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Singapore’s target is not in line with any interpretation of fairness. If all countries were to follow Singapore’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.

Singapore has committed to net zero GHG emissions by 2050 as part of its Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) (National Climate Change Secretariat, 2020, 2022). In its initial Strategy, submitted in 2020, it had set the target year as ‘as soon as viable in the second half of the century’ (National Climate Change Secretariat, 2020). It amended the target year in its 2022 addendum to the strategy, bringing it forward to 2050.

Singapore has outlined detailed sector-specific policies and measures targeting power, industry, transport, building and waste, but its Strategy does not provide details on the mitigation potential of those measures, outline an emissions pathway to net zero, nor provide any detail on the extent to which carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) will be used to achieve the target. The Strategy outlines its support for measures taken to address emissions from international aviation and shipping, though these sectors are not specifically included in its target. No review processes have been established for Singapore’s long-term target.

Our full net zero target analysis is here.