Singapore

Overall rating: Critically insufficient

Policies and action against modelled domestic pathways: Highly insufficient; < 4°C World

NDC target against modelled domestic pathways: Highly insufficient; < 4°C World

NDC target against fair share: Critically insufficient; 4°C+ World

Climate finance: Not assessed

Net zero target: year
2050; Comprehensiveness rated as
Poor

Land use & forestry: Not significant

Target Overview

Singapore updated its NDC in November 2022, bringing down its absolute emissions limit from 65 MtCO₂e in 2030 to 60 MtCO₂e* in 2030 and bring forward its emissions peak from ‘around 2030’ to before 2030 (Singapore Government, 2022).

The updated NDC has improved in terms of setting a lower absolute emission in 2030 but is not a true progression in scaling up climate action, as Singapore’s overall rating remains unchanged at “Critically insufficient”. To meet the 1.5°C limit, when compared with its fair share, Singapore’s NDC is 52 MtCO₂e away (7 times higher) and comparing to modelled domestic pathway it is 34 MtCO₂e (2.5 timed higher).

The CAT rates Singapore's target as "Highly insufficient" when rated against modelled domestic pathways and “Critically insufficient” compared to its fair share contribution. Singapore has not adopted a conditional target or an international element in its NDC, so we rate its unconditional target against the two rating frameworks.

SINGAPORE - Main climate targets

2030 NDC target
Formulation of target in NDC	To reduce emissions to around 60 MtCO₂e in 2030 after peaking its emissions earlier.
Absolute emissions level in 2030 excl. LULUCF	60 MtCO₂e* [145% above 1990] [11% above 2010]
Status	Submitted on 4 November 2022

Net zero target & other long-term targets
Formulation of target	Net zero GHG emissions by 2050.
Absolute emissions level in 2050 excl. LULUCF	Not specified**
Status	Addendum to LT-LEDS submitted on 3 November 2022

*This value is in AR5 GWP. In 2021, 93% of Singapore’s emissions (excluding LULUCF) comprise of CO₂, so the conversion from AR5 to AR4 will not have any significant change in the absolute emissions reduction.
** For details on what we do for our 'optimistic target' scenario for Singapore's net zero target, please see the Assumptions tab.

CAT rating of targets

NDC target against modelled domestic pathways: Highly insufficient

The CAT rates Singapore's NDC target as "Highly insufficient" when rated against modelled domestic pathways. The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Singapore’s domestic target in 2030 is not at all consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Singapore’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C.

NDC target against fair share: Critically insufficient

The CAT rates Singapore's NDC target as "Critically insufficient" when rated against its fair share contribution. The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that Singapore’s NDC target in 2030 reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with the limiting warming to 1.5°C. Singapore’s target is not in line with any interpretation of a fair approach to limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Singapore’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled pathways and fair share) can be found here.

NDC Updates

Singapore’s initial NDC target was a reduction of emissions intensity of GDP by 36% below 2005 levels (0.176 gCO₂e/SGD as specified in the NDC) by 2030 and stabilising emissions, aiming for them to peak around 65 MtCO₂e in 2030 (Singapore Government, 2015). The first NDC update reframed that commitment, going from an emissions intensity target to an absolute emissions limit, which is a good structural change, but the update did not increase the ambition of the target compared to the initial NDC (Singapore government, 2020).

In 2022, Singapore submitted a further NDC update, strengthening its emissions limit, from 65 MtCO₂e to 60 MtCO₂e* in 2030 and brining forward its peaking year, from ‘around 2030’ to before 2030, though it did not mention a specific year in which emissions will peak.

While Singapore has strengthened its target, this does not replace the need for Singapore to set more ambitious climate targets, substantially scale up climate action, and reduce absolute GHG emissions in the medium term as we still rate it ‘Critically insufficient’ overall.

SINGAPORE — History of NDC updates	First NDC	2020 NDC update	2022 NDC update
1.5°C compatible
Stronger target	N/A
Economy-wide coverage
Fixed/absolute target

	First NDC (2016)	2020 NDC update	2022 NDC update
Formulation of target in NDC	Unconditional target: 36% reduction in emissions intensity from 2005 level by 2030.	Unconditional target: Peak emissions at 65 MtCO₂e around 2030	Unconditional target: To reduce emissions to around 60 MtCO₂e in 2030 after peaking its emissions earlier.
Absolute emissions level in 2030 excl. LULUCF	68 MtCO₂e	65 MtCO₂e*	60 MtCO₂e*
Emissions compared to 1990 and 2010 excl. LULUCF	178% above 1990 emissions by 2030 26% above 2010 emissions by 2030	166% above 1990 emissions by 2030 20% above 2010 emissions by 2030	145% above 1990 emissions by 2030 11% above 2010 emissions by 2030
CAT rating	Overall rating:** Critically insufficient	NDC target against modelled domestic pathways: Highly insufficient* NDC target against fair share:** Critically insufficient	NDC target against modelled domestic pathways: Highly insufficient NDC target against fair share: Critically insufficient
Sector coverage	Economy-wide	Unchanged	Unchanged
Separate target for LULUCF	No	Unchanged	Unchanged
Gas coverage	Six greenhouse gases (CO₂, CH₄, N₂0, HFCs, PFCs, SF₆)	Addition NF₃	All greenhouse gases
Target type	Reduction of emissions intensity of GDP from a base year	Absolute emissions limit	Unchanged
Explanation why the target is a fair contribution towards the global goal	Yes, due to the scale of its emissions, its early action and limited potential for renewable energy.	Yes, due to its early and continued action, limited RE potential and other constraints, support provided to others and improvements made in its NDC.	Yes, similar reasons to first two submissions and continued improvements made in its NDC.
Followed guidance in Decision 4/CMA.1 on target transparency	N/A	Yes	Yes

*This value is in AR5 GW. In 2021, 93% of Singapore’s emissions (excluding LULUCF) comprise of CO₂, hence the conversion from AR5 to AR4 will not have any significant change in the absolute emissions reduction.
** Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target.
*** In past assessments, we had rated this target as ‘Critically insufficient’, however since then we have updated our methodology and pathways, included for deriving modelled domestic pathways, which has resulted in changes in the pathways for some countries, and in Singapore’s case a rating change.

Analysis of earlier NDC developments:

28.02.2020: Singapore’s proposed NDC update does not further limit GHG emissions beyond its earlier NDC
31.03.2020: Singapore’s NDC update does not further limit GHG emissions beyond its first NDC

Net zero and other long-term target(s)

Singapore has committed to net zero GHG emissions by 2050 as part of its Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) (National Climate Change Secretariat, 2020, 2022a). In its initial Strategy, submitted in 2020, it had set the target year as ‘as soon as viable in the second half of the century’ (National Climate Change Secretariat, 2020). It amended the target year in its 2022 addendum to the strategy, bringing it forward to 2050.

Singapore has outlined detail sector-specific policies and measures targeting power, industry, transport, building and waste, but its Strategy does not provide details on the mitigation potential of those measures, outline an emissions pathway to net zero, nor provide any detail on the extent to which CCUS will be used to achieve the target.

Survey data suggests that Singaporeans think the government could go further and adopt an earlier, more ambition, net zero target year. The current 2050 deadline was found to be “not sufficient[ly]ambitious” enough by respondents (The Straits Times, 2022a).

Our full net zero target analysis is here.