Thailand

Overall rating
Critically insufficient
Policies & action
Critically insufficient
4°C+ World
Internationally supported target
Insufficient
< 3°C World
Fair share target
Critically insufficient
4°C+ World
Climate finance
Not applicable
Net zero target

year

2065

Comprehensiveness rated as

Average
Land use & forestry

historically considered a

Sink

Target Overview

Thailand submitted its second NDC target to the UNFCCC on November 2, 2022 (Government of the Kingdom of Thailand, 2022). The second NDC includes revised unconditional and conditional targets, both of which has been strengthened. Additionally, the new NDC has included reference to Thailand’s revision of its long-term target, which was.

The remaining critical elements of the NDC remains the same as its previously updated NDC in 2020. The NDC still covers economy-wide emissions excluding LULUCF, covers all greenhouse gases except NF3, has omitted explanation of why the target is a fair contribution, and maintains the same target formulation of emission reductions under business-as-usual.

In order to receive a 1.5°C compatible rating for its climate targets, Thailand would need to do the following:

  • Submit a conditional NDC target to reduce emissions by approximately 44% by 2030 compared to 2021 levels, or 65% reduction under its stated BAU.
  • Submit an unconditional NDC target to reduce emissions by approximately 31% by 2030 compared to 2021 levels, or 57% reduction under its stated BAU.
THAILAND — Main climate targets
2030 unconditional NDC target
Formulation of target in NDC Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30% from projected business-as-usual level by 2030.
Absolute emissions level in 2030 
excl. LULUCF
389 MtCO2e
[96% above 1990]
[15% above 2010]
Status Submitted on 2 November 2022
2030 conditional NDC target
Formulation of target in NDC Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40% from projected business-as-usual level by 2030, subject to adequate and enhanced access to technology development and transfer, financial resources and capacity building support.
Absolute emissions level in 2030 
excl. LULUCF
333 MtCO2e
[68% above 1990]
[1% below 2010]
Status Submitted on 2 November 2022
Net zero & other long-term targets
Formulation of target Thailand aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 and net-zero GHG emissions in 2065.
Absolute emissions level in 2050 
excl. LULUCF
Equivalent to 180–200 MtCO2e in 2050
Status Submitted on 7 November 2022 (revised LT-LEDS).
Thailand submitted its first LT-LEDS target prior to COP26.

Thailand’s second NDC, submitted on November 2, 2022, is an improvement on its updated NDC submitted in 2020 through strengthened emission reduction targets, although several elements can still be improved.

The second NDC’s overall targets include its unconditional GHG reduction target of 30% (up from 20%) and a conditional target of 40% (up from 25%) below BAU level by 2030, excluding LULUCF. Thailand has included a reference to its LT-LEDS revision, which aims for carbon neutrality by 2050 and net zero GHGs by 2065, although the alignment of the mid-term and long-term targets remain unclear from the NDC.

The document has several elements which could still be improved to increase the transparency of its targets. Like the previous submission, the NDC provides no details on sectoral targets, although it has indicated forthcoming implementation plans such as the NDC Roadmap on Mitigation and Sectoral NDC plans, does not explain why its targets are a fair contribution, and does not yet cover all GHGs (missing NF3). Furthermore, Thailand has kept the same BAU emissions level of 555 MtCO2e by 2030 (the same as in the first NDC and updated NDC). The BAU should be updated, especially in the light of the global pandemic and energy crisis of recent years. The best practice revision to this target type, would be to submit an absolute emissions target.

The document notes it intends to achieve its unconditional target through domestic efforts, but continues to explore the potential of international market-based cooperation, which could include the use of Article 6 mechanisms. Thailand has not included LULUCF within the scope of the NDC but highlights its domestic actions in forestry. Thailand’s exclusion of LULUCF from its NDC target is welcome, given it improves transparency in the target and highlights the need for action in other sectors (LULUCF in Thailand is historically a carbon sink) A separate target for LULUCF would further strengthen the NDC.

The CAT calculates that the unconditional target would lead to an emissions level of 389 MtCO2e (a 13% improvement from its previous NDC) by 2030 excluding LULUCF, while the conditional target would lead to 333 MtCO2e (a 20% improvement from previous), excluding LULUCF. To achieve its conditional target, Thailand indicates that it would require adequate and enhanced access to technology development and transfer, financial resources and capacity building support. The CAT rating for Thailand’s unconditional target remains the same at “Critically insufficient”, although a slight increase in ambition would raise the target to the next rating. The CAT’s rating for Thailand’s conditional target has improved to “Insufficient”.

THAILAND — History of NDC updates First NDC Updated NDC (2020) Second NDC (2022)
1.5°C compatible


Stronger target N/A

Economy-wide coverage


Fixed/absolute target



Comparison table

THAILAND First NDC Updated NDC (2020) Second NDC (2022)
Formulation of target in NDC Unconditional target:
Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% from projected business-as-usual level by 2030.


Conditional target:
Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 25% from projected business-as-usual level by 2030, subject to adequate and enhanced technology, finance and capacity building support.
Unconditional target:
Same as in First NDC.





Conditional target:
Same as in First NDC.
Unconditional target:
Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30 percent from the projected business-as-usual (BAU) level by 2030.

Conditional target:
Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent from the projected business-as-usual (BAU) level by 2030, subject to adequate and enhanced access to technology development and transfer, financial resources and capacity building support.
Absolute emissions level
excl. LULUCF
Unconditional target:
444 MtCO2e by 2030



Conditional target:
416 MtCO2e by 2030
Unconditional target:
Same as in First NDC as no change in BAU.


Conditional target:
Same as in First NDC as no change in BAU.
Unconditional target:
389 MtCO2e by 2030
[13% lower than 2020 NDC]

Conditional target:
333 MtCO2e by 2030
[20% lower than 2020 NDC]
Emissions compared to 1990 and 2010
excl. LULUCF
Not quantified at time of submission. There would be slight deviation from numbers calculated for the updated NDC due to the different historical emissions inventory available at the time. Unconditional target:
125% above 1990 emissions by 2030
32% above 2010 emissions by 2030

Conditional target:
111% above 1990 emissions by 2030
23% above 2010 emissions by 2030
Unconditional target:
96% above 1990 levels by 2030
15% above 2010 levels by 2030

Conditional target:
68% above 1990 levels by 2030
1% below 2010 levels by 2030
CAT rating Overall rating*:
4°C+ Critically insufficient
Internationally supported target (conditional):
Critically Insufficient

Fair share target (unconditional):
Critically Insufficient
Internationally supported target (conditional):
Insufficient

Fair share target (unconditional):
Critically Insufficient
Sector coverage • Energy
• Industrial processes and product use (IPPU)
• Agriculture
• Waste

Thailand’s target does not include LULUCF, and there is no separate target for it currently.
Same as in First NDC • Energy
• Industrial processes and product use (IPPU)
• Agriculture
• Waste

Thailand’s target does not include LULUCF, and there is no separate target for it currently, although the NDC references forestry policies in ongoing national efforts.
Separate target for LULUCF No No No
Gas coverage CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF6. NF3 is no yet covered. Same as in First NDC CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF6. NF3 is no yet covered.
Target type Emissions reduction from BAU Same as in First NDC Emissions reduction from BAU
Explanation why the target is a fair contribution towards the global goal Not provided, aside from light text describing Thailand’s national circumstances and share of global emissions in 2014. Same as in First NDC Not provided
Followed guidance in Decision 4/CMA.1 on target transparency Not applicable No Yes

* Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target.

Target development timeline & previous CAT analysis

N/A

CAT rating of targets

The CAT rates NDC targets against what a fair contribution to achieving the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal would be as well as against what needs to happen within a country’s own borders.

Thailand has put forward two targets in its NDC. One that it will achieve using its own resources and one that requires international support. We rate the country’s unconditional target against its fair share contribution (‘fair share target’) and its conditional target against the level of reductions needed within its border (‘internationally supported target’).

Internationally supported target:
Insufficient

We rate Thailand’s 2030 conditional target as “Insufficient”. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Thailand’s internationally supported target in 2030 is not yet consistent with the 1.5°C temperature limit., and is associated with a 3°C-compatible trajectory.

Fair share target:
Critically insufficient

Thailand’s unconditional targets remain based on an inflated BAU that is significantly higher than its current and planned policy projections, even before the onset of COVID-19. Economic trends post-pandemic now lends even more weight to the possibility that the BAU is unrealistic and should be revised downward, with a corresponding strengthening of its emissions reduction targets. If all countries were to follow Thailand’s current approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against Modelled domestic pathways and Fair share) can be found here.

Net zero and other long-term target(s)

Thailand submitted its revised Long-term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy on 7 November, 2022, which moved the ‘carbon neutrality’ target forward to 2050 and committed to ‘net zero’ emissions by 2065 (ONEP, 2022). This represents an accelerated target from its original ‘carbon neutrality’ target for 2065 submitted to the UNFCCC in October 2021 (Thailand Government, 2021).

We evaluate the net zero target as: Average. For details on the analysis, see the Net zero tab.

2020 pledge

The target of a GHG emissions reduction of 7–20% below BAU in the energy and transport sectors had been included in Thailand’s NAMAs and Climate Change Master Plan (Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, 2014, 2015). The measures included mitigation actions in the energy and transport sectors.

The 3rd Biennial Update Report notes that in 2018, Thailand had achieved a GHG emissions reduction of 15.76% under its BAU (Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, 2020b). The CAT calculates Thailand’s 2020 BAU reference to be 470 MtCO2e and its GHG emissions reduction targets to be around 375 to 435 MtCO2e/year in 2020. According to CAT analysis, Thailand overachieved this goal due to the economic downturn caused by COVID-19, although it was on track to be within the range pre-COVID as well.

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