Türkiye

NOTE: Türkiye submitted an updated NDC on April 13, 2023. The full CAT analysis of the updated NDC is pending.

Türkiye finally ratified the Paris Agreement in October 2021. At that time, it submitted its 2015 INDC as its NDC, with the aim of unconditionally reducing GHG emissions including LULUCF in 2030 by 21% below a BAU projection. The NDC submission included a reference BAU projection of emissions in 2030 of 1175 MtCO₂e, including LULUCF and a target emissions level of 929 MtCO₂e (incl. LULUCF) (Republic of Türkiye, 2015). The target equates to an absolute emissions level of 999 MtCO₂e in 2030 once the LULUCF sector is excluded. CAT rates this target as “Critically insufficient” when compared to both required domestic efforts and Türkiye’s fair share.

In November 2022, Türkiye announced an update to its NDC, which increased the unconditional emissions reduction target from 21% to a 41% reduction from BAU by 2030 including LULUCF, but has not yet submitted this target to the UNFCCC (see below for further details).

Türkiye has adopted a 2053 net zero target, which the CAT rates as “Poor”. It is currently drafting its long-term strategy.

*For details on what we do for our Optimistic Target global temperature estimate for Türkiye, please see the Assumptions tab.

In November 2022, Türkiye announced its updated NDC, which increased the unconditional emissions reduction target from 21% to a 41% reduction from BAU by 2030 including LULUCF (Kurum, 2022). However, the BAU scenario used for this reduction target appears to be from its 2015 INDC. This BAU projects a much faster increase in Türkiye’s GHG emissions than what has actually taken place over the last seven years (Republic of Türkiye, 2015, 2022a). Assuming the same BAU is used, the proposed update results in a 2030 emissions level of 693 MtCO₂e including LULUCF or 763 MtCO₂e in 2030 excluding LULUCF (assuming Türkiye’s LULUCF sink is also unchanged) (Republic of Turkey Ministry of Environment and Urbanization, 2019; Republic of Türkiye, 2015, 2021).

This proposed updated NDC allows GHG emissions to increase by 36% compared to current levels excluding LULUCF. Türkiye is easily on track to achieve this target under its current policies, which further highlights the weakness of this announced target. The CAT rates this proposed updated NDC target as did not increase ambition because, though the emissions limit compared to the previous NDC is lower, it does not drive real world action by going beyond the median (736 MtCO₂e) of the CAT’s current policies projection level for Türkiye.

Türkiye needs to go back to the drawing board and set an NDC target that will actually drive emission reductions. Ideally, this would be in the form of an emissions limit or reduction from historic base year. At a minimum, Türkiye could update its BAU to reflect historical developments.

Türkiye’s previous NDC was its 2015 INDC resubmitted as an NDC in October 2021 when Türkiye finally ratified the Paris Agreement (Republic of Türkiye, 2021).

We rate targets against what a country should be doing within its own borders as well as what a fair contribution to achieving the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal would be.

The CAT rates Türkiye’s submitted NDC target as “Critically insufficient” when rated against both modelled domestic pathways and against its fair share contribution. Türkiye has one NDC target. It has not specified whether a portion of the target is conditional on international support or whether its NDC has an international element, so we rate its NDC target against both metrics.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.

We rate Türkiye’s NDC target as “Critically insufficient” when compared with modelled domestic pathways. The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that Türkiye’s 2030 target reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Türkiye’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

Türkiye is on track to achieve this target based on our emissions estimate for 2030 under current policies, which further highlights the weakness of this target as it will not drive real-world emission reductions.

We rate Türkiye’s NDC target as “Critically insufficient” when compared with its fair share contribution to climate action. The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that Türkiye’s 2030 target reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Türkiye’s target is not in line with any interpretation of a fair approach to meeting the 1.5°C temperature limit. If all countries were to follow Türkiye’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

We do not have sufficient information to assess Türkiye’s climate finance contribution.

Under the UNFCCC, Türkiye is an Annex I country and thus not eligible to receive climate finance through the Green Climate Fund (GCF). Our methods do not provide a clear answer for the need for finance for Türkiye. On balance, the CAT methodology shows that Türkiye should receive limited climate finance, if any. Our approach would not expect Türkiye to provide climate finance to other countries.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled pathways and fair share) can be found here.

In 2021, Türkiye announced a 2053 net zero target. Since then, Türkiye’s newly established Climate Council convened in February 2022 to develop a roadmap to achieve net zero emission and to set other green development targets. Türkiye was expected to submit its long-term strategy (LTS) by the end of 2022, but has not done so. We evaluate the target as: "Poor".

The full net zero target analysis can be found here.

Turkey did not submit a 2020 target under the Copenhagen Accord.