UAE

This assessment includes our policy analysis from 27 November 2020 translated into our new rating methodology without new analysis of the United Arab Emirates’ climate policies since then, except the NDC update submitted in December 2020. We will fully analyse the UAE in the coming months and the rating may change.

The CAT rates the United Arab Emirates’ climate targets and policies as “Highly insufficient”. The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that the UAE’s climate policies and commitments are not consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit, and lead to rising rather than decreasing emissions. The UAE’s policies and 2030 emissions reduction target are “Insufficient” when compared to modelled emissions pathways. We rate the UAE’s 2030 target as “Critically insufficient” when compared with its fair-share contribution to climate action.

We rate the United Arab Emirates’ policies and actions as “Insufficient”. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that the United Arab Emirates’ policies and action in 2030 need substantial improvements to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. If all countries were to follow the UAE’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

Despite the development of large renewable and nuclear energy projects, the UAE’s emissions are expected to increase to 2030 due to a continued expansion of fossil fuel-based sources of electricity. In line with its energy strategy, which projects coal reaching a 12% share of total electricity generation in 2050, in May 2020 the UAE completed the first unit of its inaugural 2.4 GW coal-fired power plant. The construction of new coal-fired generation is inconsistent with the need to phase out coal from electricity production in the Middle East by 2034 in order to limit warming to 1.5°C.

The full analysis of policies and action can be found here.

We rate the United Arab Emirates’ 2030 NDC target as “Insufficient” when compared with modelled domestic pathways derived from global least cost pathways. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that the UAE’s domestic target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. If all countries were to follow the UAE’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

We rate the United Arab Emirates’ 2030 NDC target as “Critically insufficient” when compared with its fair-share contribution to climate action. The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that the United Arab Emirates’ 2030 target reflects minimal to no action and is not at all consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. The UAE’s target is not in line with any interpretation of a fair approach to meeting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. If all countries were to follow the UAE’s approach, warming would exceed 4°C.

The United Arab Emirates does not have a net zero target.