UAE

Although the UAE submitted an ambitious 2035 mitigation target (which lands below our 1.5°C compatible modelled domestic pathway for 2035), we do not label UAE's overall NDC commitment as 1.5°C compatible.

The UAE has not updated its 2030 NDC to match the new 2035 NDC, which implies going from a 7% reduction in 2030 to a 44% reduction in 2035, below 2019 levels.

The UAE is not on track to meet its 2030 target under our current policy projections, needing an emissions reduction of 22% to meet its 2030 target. To meet its 2035 target, the UAE would need to reduce its emissions a further 31% – a total of 53% from its projected 2030 emission levels under current policies. Without details as to how these cuts would be made, the 2035 target is hard to view as credible.

These credibility concerns are exacerbated when assessing the UAE NDC’s sectoral breakdown. This shows that most emissions reductions are expected to come from the buildings, industry and transport sectors, but the power sector will remain largely fossil fuel based, with an unrealistic reliance on CCS instead of renewables. There is no improvement on the renewables target.

The new NDC clarifies the overall contribution of negative emissions but does not clarify what proportion is technological based CDR versus what proportion is nature-based.

On 6 November 2024, the UAE submitted its 2035 NDC, setting an absolute target of reducing emissions to 103.5 MtCO₂e, which represents a 47% reduction below 2019 levels. This target covers all sectors and all gases. The CAT excludes emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) from its assessment, resulting in a target of 111 MtCO₂e in 2035.

The UAE's 2035 target itself is below our 1.5°C compatible modelled domestic pathway but new NDC did not increase the ambition of its 2030 emission reduction target, which is well above our 1.5°C compatible modelled domestic pathways. The failure to substantially increase the ambition of the UAE’s 2030 targets raises serious concerns as to the credibility of its 2035 NDC given that a further 41%-point reduction (jumping from 7% to 48% below 2019 levels) would be needed in national emissions in only five years between 2030 and 2035. The serious lack of alignment between its 2030 and 2035 NDC means the country cannot claim to be on a 1.5°C-aligned pathway.

For the world to have a significant chance of limiting warming to 1.5˚C, governments must switch to emergency mode and strengthen both their 2030 targets and current policies to include substantial emissions cuts and significantly contribute to closing the 2030 emission gap.

The UAE’s submitted 2035 NDC target did not increase the ambition of its 2030 target.

The UAE’s 2035 target does represent a significant step forward in ambition compared to its 2030 target, leading to emissions dropping by 40% between 2030 and 2035.

The UAE’s 2035 target leads to 44% lower emissions in 2035 compared to 2019 across all sectors excluding LULUCF. However, the UAE has not increased its 2030 target, which represents only a 7% decrease in emissions below 2019. So, the vast majority of the emissions reductions by 2035 are expected to happen in the five years between 2030 and 2035. The steep rate of emission reductions assumed between 2030 and 2035 make this 2035 target not credible if it is to be achieved domestically.

2030 NDC Target

2035 NDC Target

The target of 111 MtCO₂e in 2035 is below our 1.5°C compatible modelled domestic pathway of 121.4 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF. However, the 2030 target is well above that path. Hence the NDC trajectory is not compatible with global least cost 1.5 pathways.

The 2035 NDC target includes sectoral plans and targets in the energy, industry, transport, buildings, agriculture, and waste sectors. It outlines measures and plans to achieve emissions reductions in each sector against a 2019 baseline and is largely in line with what the UAE presented in its previous NDC as well as its LTS. However, the NDC does not present any new sectoral targets for 2035 beyond its emission reduction targets (e.g. no new renewable energy capacity targets).

Further information on the UAE’s net zero target can be found here.

The UAE has communicated that it intends to provide and mobilise:

• USD 2 billion in grants and concessional loans for renewable energy projects in developing countries
• USD 1.2 billion for climate action alongside the Declaration on Climate, Relief, Recovery, and Peace (RRR)
• USD 200 million to the IMF’s Resilience and Sustainability Trust
• USD 100 million to the Loss & Damage Fund
• USD 30 billion to the Alterra fund for industrial decarbonization, climate technologies, sustainable living, and the energy transition
• USD 100 billion together with the US for its Partnership for Accelerating Clean Energy (PACE) which support renewable energy both at home and abroad

The UAE’s NDC showcases many of its contributions towards climate finance but does not present a clear overview of how much it plans to spend per year, how it will be distributed by sector/activities, and which regions will be targeted.

The UAE’s 2035 NDC target is supported by sectoral targets and measures that provide a degree of credibility to it. However, given that most emission reductions are expected to happen between 2030 and 2035, it raises the question whether the 9% annual change rate in emissions implied in the NDC target pathway is realistic.

The UAE will need to implement new policies to reach its 2035 target. Emissions under current policies are expected to be 48-57% or 102-148 MtCO₂e above the NDC target in 2035. With the planned measures outlined in its LTS, it is possible that the UAE could come close to its 2035 NDC target, but open questions remain about the UAE’s measures to decarbonize its power and industry sectors, and the expected role of CCS.

The UAE is one of the world’s leading fossil fuel producers and exporters. While under its new NDC it plans to reduce the use of fossil fuels domestically, current plans by its state oil company (ADNOC) make it clear that the UAE plans to continue expanding its oil and gas activities.

The UAE’s NDC includes an absolute emissions target, which covers all gases and sectors of the economy. It also breaks down the target to the sectoral level to show the decarbonisation contribution expected of each sector. In its LTS, the UAE presents an emissions pathway which includes both its 2030 NDC target and its 2050 net zero target. However, a new version of this pathway was not included in the latest NDC to include the 2035 target.

The UAE includes an estimate of negative emissions in 2035, which includes both LULUCF and technological CDR such as direct air capture. Negative emissions are expected to reach 9.3 MtCO₂e in 2035. In its previous NDC and its LTS, the UAE did clarify the contribution of each type of negative emissions. However, it does not clarify the contribution of each type to the total in its 2035 NDC target. Finally, the UAE reserves the use of carbon credits under article 6 of the Paris agreement, but does not commit to using credits, nor provides an estimate of how many it would use.

It is important to present separate targets for each of these elements, or at least to clearly identify their contribution to the NDC target. This helps to increase transparency and assess the credibility of the NDC target, as each of these negative emissions options come with their own set of advantages and limitations.

The lack of clarity on the contribution of each negative emissions technology makes it harder for the CAT to assess the UAE’s NDC target excluding LULUCF. To estimate the contribution of LULUCF to the UAE’s 2035 target, the CAT assumes agriculture emissions from 2021 (last reported year in the national GHG inventory) remain constant until 2035 (which is supported by the sectoral pathway presented int the UAE’s LTS which show all emissions reductions in the agriculture sector until 2035 will come from decarbonisation and reduction of its energy use) and then subtracts this value from the AFOLU estimate provided in the NDC. The estimated LULUCF emissions in 2035 using this method is -7.6 MtCO₂e.

The UAE claims that the “target has been established in line with a 1.5 pathway in an effort to showcase the UAE’s best efforts” but does not explain how such a pathway was derived, which would require breaking the global goal of 1.5°C to the country level of the UAE.

UAE’s climate targets and policies

Guide to a good 2035 climate target