United Kingdom

Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming of greater than 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming over 2°C and up to 3°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with holding warming below, but not well below, 2°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. No “role model” rating has been developed for the sectors.

1.5°C Compatible< 1.5°C World

We rate the UK’s national target for 2030 as "Insufficient". As part of the EU, the UK did not submit its own NDC to the Paris Agreement. Therefore, we assess the 2030 emissions levels derived from the UK's national targets.

The “Insufficient” rating indicates that the UK's climate commitment in 2030 is not consistent with holding warming to well below 2°C, let alone limiting it to 1.5°C as required under the Paris Agreement. The emission levels of the UK’s national target falls just within the very top end of the wide range of emissions levels that represent its fair share effort to the Paris Agreement 1.5°C temperature goal. As we explain elsewhere, commitments within the least stringent part of a country’s fair-share range would require other governments to do comparatively more. If all countries were to realize emissions at the top of their respective fair-share ranges, this would add up to global warming substantially above 2°C, so that for all countries, emissions levels just below the top end of a fair-share range are rated as insufficient.

Substantially deeper reductions by 2030 would move the UK’s national targets towards compatibility with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C temperature goal.

The UK’s CAT rating is based on the emission reduction commitments put forward in its national target. If the CAT were to rate the UK‘s projected emissions levels in 2030 under current policies, the UK would still be rated “Insufficient”.

Further information about the risks and impacts associated with the temperature levels of each of the categories is available here.