United Kingdom

The UK does not intend to use market mechanisms and will achieve its NDC target through to domestic action alone. We rate its NDC target against both domestic and fairness metrics.

The UK’s NDC broadly aligns with least cost modelled pathways which limit warming to 1.5°C with no or low overshoot. To cut emissions in 2030 by “at least 68%” below 1990 levels (including LULUCF) represents a reduction in emissions of 40% below 2021 levels. It requires the UK to reduce emissions by over 5% per year through the 2020s, almost double the rate of the previous decade. This “1.5°C compatible” rating indicates that the UK’s NDC target is consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C on a globally cost-effective basis.

When compared against what would be a fair share of effort towards achieving the Paris Agreement goals, the UK’s NDC is ranked as “Insufficient”. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that the UK’s NDC target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C.

The UK’s target is at the least stringent end of what would be a fair share of global effort and is not consistent with the 1.5°C limit, unless other countries make much deeper reductions and comparably greater effort. If all countries were to follow the UK’s approach, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C.

The UK’s current NDC sets a target of 251 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030 (when expressed in AR4 GWPs excl. LULUCF). To improve its fair share rating, the UK would need to cut emissions by an additional 280–400 MtCO₂e. Some of this additional reduction could be achieved domestically, by cutting UK emissions to more than 68% below 1990 levels (WWF 2020).

However, it will not be feasible for the UK to achieve all these emissions reductions domestically. Therefore, the UK will need to develop clear and ambitious plans to support climate action in other countries, particularly through capacity building, technology transfer and climate finance. Without this, the UK cannot be seen to be aligned with the Paris Agreement’s commitment to reflect ‘equity and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities’ in climate action.

The UK’s international public climate finance contributions are rated “Highly insufficient.” The UK has committed to increase its provision of climate finance, but contributions to date have been very low compared to its fair share and have also declined noticeably since 2015. To improve its rating the UK needs to substantially increase the level of its international climate finance contributions in the post-2020 period.

The CAT rates countries on their provision of mitigation-related climate finance, although finance for adaptation often lags behind mitigation and also needs greater attention from the global community (Timperley 2021). The UK’s reported contributions to financing emissions reductions abroad fall far short of its fair share contribution to the USD 100bn goal (which itself will be increased post-2025).

Climate finance contributions where mitigation was the primary objective have also decreased in the past five years, falling 55% between 2015 and 2020 (OECD 2022). Some of the UK’s wider development aid could result in emission reductions as a subsidiary outcome, but is not included in this analysis. For more details see the methodology on finance ratings. On current contributions and historical trends therefore, the UK is rated as “highly insufficient”.

In 2019, the UK committed to doubling its climate finance provision from GBP 5.8 bn across 2016-2020 to GBP 11.6 bn across 2021–2026 (UK Government 2019c). However, in July 2021 it was revealed that this would not be new funding, and instead would be taken from the existing aid budget (Merrick 2021). This breaks a UN-brokered agreement that such funding would be ‘new and additional’ (UNFCCC 2011), and follows an earlier 2021 announcement of a cut in the UK’s total aid budget (Wintour 2021). Increased climate finance will therefore come at the expense of substantial reductions in other, much needed development aid. The UK should reverse these changes and ensure that climate finance is new and additional, rather than competing with other development priorities.

The UK supported GBP 21 bn of UK oil and gas exports through trade promotion and export finance’ over 2016–2020 (UK Government 2020b). From March 31 2021, however, the UK stopped investing in fossil fuel projects abroad, covering “export finance, aid funding and trade promotion for new crude oil, natural gas or thermal coal projects” (UK Government 2020b). There are some exemptions to this policy relating to investment in natural gas power plants and infrastructure, but broadly this commitment is to be welcomed. At COP26 in Glasgow, the UK was part of a group of 20 governments who publicly committed to ending financial support for fossil fuels overseas by the end of 2022 (Vaughan 2021).

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.

On 12 December 2020, the UK submitted its first updated NDC to the UNFCCC after leaving the European Union. This NDC committed the UK to reducing GHG emissions to 68% below 1990 levels by 2030. This represents a significant strengthening from the UK’s previous 2030 commitment, which was to reduce emissions by 57% below 1990 levels. The UK’s NDC is now aligned with its 2050 target of achieving net zero GHG emissions, according to analysis by the CCC (CCC 2020).

The UK’s NDC is broadly aligned with least-cost modelled domestic emissions pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C with no or low overshoot. However, it is at the higher end of the 1.5°C compatible range of emissions. It could therefore be further increased to more firmly align with least-cost modelled domestic pathways. Recent analysis highlighted a range of feasible options and concluded that an emissions reductions target of above 70% and towards 75% would be achievable (WWF 2020). As the NDC is not aligned with the UK’s fair share target for climate action, further increasing the ambition in the UK’s NDC would better enable the UK to embody the principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities that are at the heart of the Paris Agreement.

The UK revisited and updated its NDC on 23 September 2022 (UK Government 2022k). The UK did not strengthen the overall GHG emissions reductions target, as requested by the Glasgow Climate Pact agreed at COP26 under the UK’s presidency. It did, however, provide a range of additional information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding. This includes information on how the UK will deliver its NDC by 2030, how it will assess the NDC’s achievement, an update on the NDC’s territorial scope (which includes the Crown Territory of Jersey and Overseas Dependency of Gibraltar), and more information on how the UK’s climate targets relate to broader goals around gender, green skills, a just transition, biodiversity, health, air pollution and public engagement. However, without strengthening the level of ambition in its NDC, and providing increased levels of climate finance to support emissions reductions in less wealthy countries, the UK will be unable to improve its rating on the Climate Action Tracker.

* Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target.

Analysis of earlier NDC developments:

• 12.12.2020: UK submits ambitious NDC to UNFCCC
• 03.12.2020: UK announces NDC in advance of Climate Ambition Summit

The UK has enshrined the net zero target by 2050 in law by way of revising and amending the Climate Change Act 2008 in 2019. The Net Zero Strategy released in October 2021 has been submitted to the UNFCCC as the UK’s updated long-term strategy.

The net zero target covers most key elements considered important by the CAT to enhance transparency, target architecture, and scope. The UK meets good practice for most of these benchmarks, but some elements remain undefined or lacking. For example, a clear commitment not to use reductions or removals outside of the UK, and providing separate targets for emissions reductions and removals would improve the target architecture of the UK’s net zero target.

The UK was the first major economy to establish and pass a legally binding target of net zero emissions by 2050 in 2019 (UK Government 2019d). The UK’s target covers all sectors and gases and includes emissions from international aviation and shipping. Excluding LULUCF and international aviation and shipping, this corresponds to 2050 emissions of 0 MtCO₂e/yr as existing residual emissions from agriculture and other sectors such as international aviation are being balanced by CO₂ removal from BECCS, DACCS and other approaches. For this reason, this does not represent a target to reach absolute zero emissions.

For the full analysis click here.