United Kingdom

Overall rating
Insufficient

Policies and action
against modelled domestic pathways

Insufficient
< 3°C World

NDC target
against modelled domestic pathways

Almost Sufficient
< 2°C World

NDC target
against fair share

Insufficient
< 3°C World
Climate finance
Highly insufficient
Net zero target

year

2050

Comprehensiveness rated as

Acceptable
Land use & forestry
Not significant

2035 NDC Target Overview

The UK’s 2035 target in its new NDC is ambitious and would translate to emissions below our cost-effective 1.5ºC modelled domestic pathway (MDP). Given that the 2035 target can also be reasonably achieved from the 2030 target, we label the UK’s new NDC as “1.5°C compatible” against MDPs. We welcome this proposed emissions cut for 2035 on the road to reaching net zero GHG emissions by 2050 and it is the first developed country to get this assessment.

At the same time, some key issues should be highlighted:

  • First, the UK should still revise and align its 2030 emissions target with 1.5ºC compatible modelled domestic pathways. The UK’s current 2030 climate target of a 68% reduction below 1990 levels is very close to the 70% cut needed to align with these pathways. In 2023, UK emissions were estimated to already be 53% below 1990 levels. Updating the 2030 target could be key in encouraging and motivating other countries to revisit and update their targets also.
  • Second, the UK should consider going beyond the minimum targets set by MDPs which are a floor, not a ceiling of ambition.
  • While this 2035 target aligns with cost-effective pathways limiting warming to 1.5ºC, the UK’s fair share of climate action goes far beyond what it does domestically. The UK should therefore increase the climate finance it provides for developing countries in order to facilitate substantial emission reductions internationally, and ultimately communicate this as part of its final NDC.
  • What matters most is action to reduce emissions in the real economy. The new government has inherited a vast implementation gap, with existing policies covering only 24% of the emission reductions needed to meet the new 2035 target. Urgent action will be needed to introduce, strengthen and implement policy mechanisms that turn this new ambition into reality.
  • The UK should not be developing new oil and gas resources and needs to progress its phase out of fossil fuels beyond coal. Leadership is badly needed on this issue globally and it is very bad signal if the UK follows the US Trump Administration on this issue.

The UK submitted its 2035 NDC mitigation target on 30 January 2025 setting a target to cut emissions to 81% below 1990 levels by 2035 keeping the same headline ambition that it announced at COP29. This target covers all sectors and all gases. With its 2035 target of 153 MtCO2e, the UK has closed the gap between its target and our 1.5°C compatible MDP in 2035 and gone slightly below the threshold of 167 MtCO2e excluding emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF).


United Kingdom 2035 NDC Target
2035 unconditional NDC target
Formulation of target in NDC [81% below 1990 levels by 2035 (incl. LULUCF)
Absolute emissions level in 2035 excl. LULUCF 153 MtCO2e
[81% below 1990]
[75% below 2010]
Status Submitted on 30 January 2025

Latest publications

Stay informed

Subscribe to our newsletter