United Kingdom

The United Kingdom announced the headline ambition of its 2035 NDC at COP29. The UK’s 2035 target would translate to emissions below our cost-effective 1.5ºC modelled domestic pathway. We welcome this proposed emissions cut for 2035 on the road to reaching net zero GHG emissions by 2050.

At the same time, some key issues should be highlighted. As the UK has yet to formally submit its NDC to the UNFCCC, there is still time for the NDC to be improved prior to submission:

• First, the UK should still revise and align its 2030 emissions targets with 1.5ºC compatible modelled domestic pathways. The UK’s current 2030 climate target of a -68% relative to 1990 levels is very close to the 70% cut below 1990 needed to align with these pathways. In 2023, UK emissions were estimated to already be 53% below 1990 levels. Updating the 2030 target could be key in encouraging and motivating other countries to revisit and update their targets also.
• While this 2035 GHG target aligns with cost-effective pathways limiting warming to 1.5ºC, the UK’s fair share of climate action goes far beyond what it does domestically. The UK should therefore increase the climate finance it provides for developing countries in order to facilitate substantial emission reductions internationally, and ultimately communicate this as part of its final NDC.
• What matters most is action to reduce emissions in the real economy. The new government has inherited a vast implementation gap, with existing policies covering only 24% of the emissions reductions needed to meet the new 2035 target. Urgent action will be needed to introduce, strengthen and implement policy mechanisms that turn this new ambition into reality.

The UK announced the headline ambition of its 2035 NDC mitigation target on 11 November 2024 setting a target to cut emissions to 81% below 1990 levels by 2035. This target covers all sectors and all gases. The Climate Action Tracker evaluates NDC targets excluding emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) in order to keep the focus on decarbonisation of the economy (e.g. phase out of fossil fuels) and because of the often-massive uncertainty in estimates of LULUCF emissions and removals.

For the UK, removing LULUCF from the target results in 153 MtCO₂e in 2035. This is slightly below our 1.5°C modelled domestic pathway of 167 MtCO₂e (both excluding LULUCF).