Targets for 2020 and 2025 were calculated from the 2019 national inventory submissions.
For the 2020 pledge, NDC, and long-term target, we apply the indicated reduction to the 2005 inventory data for 2005 including LULUCF, and then subtract the projected emissions for the LULUCF sector. The LULUCF emission projections up to 2030 were taken from the 6th National Communication, which reported sinks of 0.6–0.9 GtCO2e/year in 2025 (U.S. Department of State, 2014). The 2016 CAT update used LULUCF projections from the 2nd Biennial report, which reported a sink of 0.9 to 1.2 GtCO2e/year in the same year (Climate Action Tracker, 2016b; U.S. Department of State, 2016). The methodological changes in the 2nd Biennial Report increased the sink from forest and land use by about 4.3 to 5.1%-points compared to the total emission level in the base year, 2005, rendering the target for the remaining sectors 3.9 to 4.6%-points easier to achieve. The sinks in the 2nd Biennial report were calculated with a different methodology than LULUCF in the CRF historical data for 2005, on which the NDC target is based, making these values incompatible with the historical data. We have therefore returned to using projections from the 6th National Communication, which is consistent with the historical data. The LULUCF projections for 2050 were taken from the Mid-Century Strategy document and represent the full range of modeled sink scenarios in the report (The White House, 2016).