Viet Nam

Critically Insufficient4°C+ World

NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming of greater than 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Highly insufficient< 4°C World

NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

Insufficient< 3°C World

NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming over 2°C and up to 3°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

2°C Compatible< 2°C World

NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with holding warming below, but not well below, 2°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.

1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

Role model<< 1.5°C World

This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. No “role model” rating has been developed for the sectors.

1.5°C Compatible< 1.5°C World

Global Warming Potentials

All figures in this assessment are consistent with the global warming potentials (GWPs) from the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4).

Historical emissions

Historical emissions are based on government data where the data was available (MNRE 2019; Viet Nam Government 2017b). Historical emissions from 1994 to 2013 are based on the Second Biennial Report submitted to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (Viet Nam Government 2017b). The latest emissions data (year 2014) was also included from Viet Nam’s third national communication to the UNFCCC (MNRE 2019). Interpolations were used in the years not reported. PRIMAP data is used for years 1990 to 1994 (Gütschow, Jeffery, and Gieseke 2019).

Data for CO₂ emissions in the agriculture sector is missing in the government sources but CH₄ and N₂O are included (MNRE 2019; Viet Nam Government 2017b), which account for the larger share of emissions in the agriculture sector.

The government data on industrial processes and product use (IPPU) only includes CO₂ (MNRE 2019; Viet Nam Government 2017b). We have added non-CO₂ emissions from the US EPA (2019a) for full coverage of industry sector emissions.

Emissions from 2010 were recalculated by the government in 2014 (Viet Nam Government 2017b). The NDC uses a different figure for 2010 emissions, with a difference of 2.7%, amounting to 273 MtCO₂e (excl. LULUCF, incl. IPPU) (Viet Nam Government 2017b).

Pledges and targets

The pledge emissions are found in Viet Nam’s NDC (Viet Nam Government 2016). The BAU scenario for GHG emissions assumes economic growth in the absence of climate change policies (Viet Nam Government 2016). The pledge includes energy, agriculture, waste and LULUCF sectors, and excludes the industrial processes and product use (IPPU) sector. The BAU starts from 2010 and projections for 2020 and 2030 are 474.1 and 787.4 MtCO₂e, respectively. Sectoral emissions from the same years are found in the Technical Report for Viet Nam’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (Viet Nam Government 2015). Interpolations were used in the years not reported.

We remove LULUCF to focus on the emissions intensive sectors of industry and energy. Government figures for LULUCF in 2030 were -45 MtCO₂e in the BAU scenario (Viet Nam Government 2015).

As IPPU emissions are not included in the government’s NDC, we created a business as usual IPPU scenario based on a number of assumptions.

Government historical emissions for IPPU only include CO₂. We assume a constant share of IPPU CO₂ emissions from the 2014 data from the third national communication to the UNFCCC (MNRE 2019) to create a Business-as-usual pathway. In 2014, the IPPU CO₂ emissions were an additional 13.5% “Markup” on top of all emissions without LULUCF and without IPPU. This share is used to project IPPU CO₂ emissions to 2030. This is a conservative assumption, since the share of IPPU emissions has been increasing in the past.

US EPA (2019b) data projections are used for the IPPU non-CO₂ emissions (F-gases) to 2030. The US EPA based projections uses either country reported data, and where data is not available the US EPA uses calculated estimates based on IPCC default emissions factors and globally available data (US EPA 2019a).

Viet Nam’s NDC includes additional sub target pledges on the emissions intensity of GDP. The pledge description is not clear as to whether the intensity targets include IPPU. CO₂ IPPU emissions and LULUCF are included in the NDC baseline 2010 emissions (Viet Nam Government 2015, 2016), so we assume that the emissions intensity of GDP targets do include IPPU and LULUCF. Our calculations factor out LULUCF.

Our calculations use GDP figures from government sources. We use GDP at the current prices from Viet Nam’s Third National Communication (MNRE 2019) and GDP growth rates from the first Biennial Report (Vietnam Government 2014).

Current policy projections

The current policy scenario is based on projections from APERC (2019a) business as usual (BAU) scenario. The APERC BAU scenario projects CO₂ emissions of current and planned policies in the energy sector. The energy sector covers over 50% of Viet Nam’s emissions.

The APERC (2019a) BAU scenario has a number of assumptions: Electricity use from appliance and buildings reflect economic growth and urbanisation. Industry plays a key role in the economy, where steel, iron and cement industry continue to dominate the industry sector. Regarding transport, energy elasticity is linked to GDP consistent with the base year fuel mix. Biodiesel is not included as it assumes no market penetration of the product. It is assumed that increases in the number of vehicles continues. The energy supply mix matches the sectoral plans, including coal and natural gas targets, and LNG terminal plans. The production of oil is based on available reserves and historical data. The optimisation and capacity of the power mix is based on the Revised PDP7. The scenario projects a decrease in the use of biomass, but biomass is the main renewable energy source in the power sector. Energy is imported when demand is not met by domestic supply.

The APERC BAU scenario considers the Viet Nam National Energy Efficiency Program (VNEEP) phase one and two, the shift from traditional fuels to electrification, the National Technical Regulation on Energy Efficiency Buildings, and the Energy Efficiency Building Code technical standards. It does not include the recent VNEEP Phase three (MOIT 2018) which would reduce energy demand (APERC 2019b).

Current policy projections for energy non-CO₂ emissions are based on US EPA (2019b) data.

Agriculture and waste emissions projections are based on the latest historical emissions in 2014 from the Third National Communication (MNRE 2019), with a trend from the growth rates of the US EPA (2019b) non-CO₂ data.

Projections for LULUCF (when included) are based on historical data for year 2014 the Third National Communication (MNRE 2019) and projections from the INDC Technical report (Viet Nam Government 2015) with interpolations between unreported years.

Current policy IPPU emissions follow the same trajectory as in the BAU scenario, as Vietnam’s industry policies are based on energy related industry and not IPPU (see the industry section discussion for details of policies).