RELEASE: EU slipping on action amid climate breakdown, aided by Germany

Amid the climate breakdown overtaking Europe, which has brought a mounting death toll from repeated heat waves, devastating wildfires, rivers running dry and drought reducing agricultural production, the EU’s climate ambition is slipping significantly, according to the Climate Action Tracker's latest analysis of the region, published today.

Alongside the EU, today the CAT has also published its new analysis of Germany, noting that its weakening of climate action was instrumental in the EU's recent series of decisions to do the same.

Other country analyses show few improved ratings for key countries that, combined, cover 39 to 40% of global emissions in the 2026 climate landscape:

• While China is showing signs of progress, as it now reducing emissions across the power and transport sectors, but with mixed signals in heavy industry sectors
• Brazil has dropped down a rating
• Türkiye's 2035 target shows a widening gap between policies and 1.5˚C compatibility widening 2030-2035

Country analysis details:

European Union:
While the EU’s emissions continue to fall it has seen a series of recent weakening of previously-agreed policies, including weakening the 2035 fossil fuel car sale phase-out, proposed slowing of reductions under the EU ETS scheme, allowing the use of international carbon credits to meet the 2040 GHG emissions target, and weakening compliance provisions in the methane regulations.

This all undermines the EU’s climate credibility and places a 1.5°C-compatible pathway increasingly out of reach. The CAT therefore maintains the EU’s overall climate action rating of ‘Insufficient’.

Michael Petroni, CAT EU lead, Climate Analytics:
"Since the US-Israel began its war on Iran, the EU has been facing ongoing pressures on energy security and affordability. It's clear its energy transition remains incomplete and that further delay in climate action would carry economic, geopolitical and climate risks such as the terrifying wildfires sweeping South West Europe, on the back of deadly heatwaves.

"While the EU is in a stronger position than during the 2022 energy crisis, with renewable energy deployment accelerating and fossil gas dependence dropping - it has not yet used this moment to accelerate the shift away from fossil fuels."

Germany:
The German government is also slowing its climate action, drifting further from the Climate Change Act's legally binding 2030 and 2045 targets. It has also failed to use the global energy crisis to expedite an energy transition.

Germany's own slowdown of policies around the transition to zero emissions transport, and allowing international offsets to meet targets, was a key factor in the EU's decision to weaken its climate policies.

Recent policy decisions risk slowing the expansion of renewables and the decarbonisation of the buildings sector. The CAT now projects Germany's 2030 emissions to be higher than our previous update.

CAT Germany lead Finn Hossfeld, (NewClimate Institute)
"The recent heatwaves and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz should be a wakeup call for Germany, the EU's largest emitter, to transition to zero emissions, but the government continues weakening its climate policies across the board. Germany is prolonging its dependence on imported fossil fuels as Europe burns,“ said Finn Hossfeld, climate policy analyst at NewClimate Institute

China:
For the first time, China is now reducing emissions across the power and transport sectors, but with mixed signals in heavy industry sectors. Driven by long-term shifts in the economy, emissions may have already peaked in 2025, with monthly CO2 emissions flat or declining from March 2024 through year-end 2025.

China’s 15th five-year plan (FYP) targets a 17% reduction in carbon intensity by 2030; however, we consider this target conservative and project that it will be achieved anyway under current policies and market trends. Key goals in its new energy plan include raising electrification from 30% in 2025 to 35% by 2030, increasing non-fossil power generation to 50%, and lifting wind and solar to 50% of total installed capacity by 2030.

Coal power also highlights a key contradiction: while coal-fired power generation declined in 2025 for the first time in a decade, 291 GW of coal capacity remains in the pipeline, risking carbon lock-in and stranded assets.

CAT China lead Norah Zhang, NewClimate Institute
"China's global leadership in record high renewable energy deployment is enough to meet its growing electricity demand, curb coal-fired power generation and reduce power sector emissions.

"At the same time, increased EV uptake, declining cement and steel output, and deeper electrification and efficiency gains in building operations have stabilised or reduced CO₂ emissions in non-power sectors. If China sustains policy interventions that secure a downward emissions trajectory, it could lock in the apparent 2025 peak in emissions."

Türkiye 2035 target analysis:
As it stands, COP31 host Türkiye’s climate ambitions and policy actions are not 1.5°C compatible and set to deteriorate further by 2035, with the gap between targets and a 1.5°C compatible pathway actually widening from 2030 to 2035. The fact that the country’s 2030 and 2035 NDCs would lead to emissions significantly above current policies completely contradicts the Paris Agreement’s requirement to put forward climate targets with the highest possible ambition.

The 2035 target would see Türkiye’s emissions plateau or even increase over the next decade, which is clearly at odds with the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Türkiye’s 2030 target has not been revised and would represent a 35% growth in emissions from 2023, substantially faster growth rate in emissions then over the previous 10 years.

Türkiye’s rating remains “Critically Insufficient”

Brazil:
Brazil’s overall CAT rating of its climate action has worsened from “Insufficient” to “Highly Insufficient.”

Brazil’s climate action remains inconsistent with the 1.5°C warming limit. Continued expansion of oil and fossil gas production, including new drilling in the Amazon, directly contradicts both Brazil’s climate leadership ambitions and the Paris Agreement goals.

Further, Brazil’s 2035 NDC is not 1.5°C aligned and the gap between its target and a 1.5°C modelled domestic pathway has grown compared to 2030.

CAT Brazil lead, Sofia Gonzales-Zuniga:
"While Brazil has certainly seen some policy momentum, this is undermined by its continued expansion of oil and gas production, where we see long-term plans and major public investment programmes continue to support fossil fuel development, with no fixed timeline for a phase-out."

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