Critically Insufficient4°C+
World
NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming of greater than 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.
Highly insufficient< 4°C
World
NDCs with this rating fall outside of a country’s “fair share” range and are not at all consistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming between 3°C and 4°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.
Insufficient< 3°C
World
NDCs with this rating are in the least stringent part of a country’s “fair share” range and not consistent with holding warming below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would reach over 2°C and up to 3°C. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with warming over 2°C and up to 3°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.
2°C Compatible< 2°C
World
NDCs with this rating are consistent with the 2009 Copenhagen 2°C goal and therefore fall within a country’s “fair share” range, but are not fully consistent with the Paris Agreement long term temperature goal. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming could be held below, but not well below, 2°C and still be too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with holding warming below, but not well below, 2°C if all other sectors were to follow the same approach.
1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible< 1.5°C
World
This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
Role model<< 1.5°C
World
This rating indicates that a government’s NDC is more ambitious than what is considered a “fair” contribution: it is more than consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. No “role model” rating has been developed for the sectors.
1.5°C Compatible< 1.5°C
World
This rating indicates that a government’s NDCs in the most stringent part of its “fair share” range: it is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. For sectors, the rating indicates that the target is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
Sources
List of references
- Angola, Argentina, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Brazil, China, Ecuador, Jordan, India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, & United Arab Emirates. (2023). The draft revised IMO strategy on reductions of GHG emissions from ships - ISWG-GHG 14/2/10. https://www.imo.org/en/about/pages/documentsresources.aspx
- Baresic, D. & K. Palmer (2022). Climate action in shipping: Progress towards Shipping’s 2030 Breakthrough. https://cms.globalmaritimeforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Climate-action-in-shipping-progress-towards-shippings-2030-breakthrough.pdf
- Baresic, D., Rojon, I., Shaw, A., & Rehmatulla, N. (2022). Closing the Gap: An Overview of the Policy Options to Close the Competitiveness Gap and Enable an Equitable Zero-Emission Fuel Transition in Shipping. https://www.globalmaritimeforum.org/content/2021/12/Closing-the-Gap_Getting-to-Zero-Coalition-report.pdf
- Boehm, S., Jeffery, L., Levin, K., Hecke, J., Schumer, C., Fyson, C., WIlson, R., Majid, A., Jaeger, J., Nilsson, A., Naimoli, S., Thwaites, J., Cassidy, E., Lebling, K., Sims, M., Waite, R., Castellanos, S., Singh, N., Lee, A., & Geiges, A. (2022). State of Climate Action 2022. https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/state-of-climate-action-2022/
- Bureau Veritas. (2021). Understanding New IMO Decarbonisation Measures: EEXI and CII. https://www.bvsolutions-m-o.com/magazine/understanding-new-imo-decarbonization-measures-eexi-and-cii
- Climate Analytics. (2023). 2030 targets aligned to 1.5°C Evidence from the latest global pathways. https://climateanalytics.org/publications/2023/2030-targets-aligned-to-15c-evidence-from-the-latest-global-pathways/
- Comer, B., Chen, C., & Rutherford, D. (2018). Relating short-term measures to IMO’ s minimum 2050 emissions reduction target. Appendix to paper MEPC 73/INF.27 presented to IMO Marine Environment Protection Committee. https://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/IMO_Short_term_potential_20181011.pdf
- Comer, B., & Sathiamoorthy, B. (2022). How updating IMO regulations can promote lower greenhouse gas emissions from ships. https://theicct.org/publication/marine-imo-eedi-oct22/
- Council of the European Union. (2023). FuelEU Maritime initiative: Provisional agreement to decarbonise the maritime sector. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2023/03/23/fueleu-maritime-initiative-provisional-agreement-to-decarbonise-the-maritime-sector/?utm_source=dsms-auto&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=FuelEU+Maritime+initiative%3a+Provisional+agreement+to+decarbonise+the+maritime+sector
- DNV. (2022). Maritime Forecast 2050. https://www.dnv.com/maritime/publications/maritime-forecast-2022/index.html
- DNV. (2023). EEXI and CII requirements taking effect from 1 January 2023. https://www.dnv.com/news/eexi-and-cii-requirements-taking-effect-from-1-january-2023--237817
- Energy Transitions Commission. (2019). Mission Possible. Sectoral focus: shipping. https://www.energy-transitions.org/publications/mission-possible-sectoral-focus-shipping/
- European Commission. (2021). Proposal for a Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council amending Directive 2003/87/EC establishing a system for greenhouse gas emission allowance trading within the Union. European Commission. https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/revision-eu-ets_with-annex_en_0.pdf
- European Parliament. (2021). Legislative train schedule: Fit for 55 package under the European Green Deal. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-european-green-deal/package-fit-for-55
- Fuss, S., Lamb, W. F., Callaghan, M. W., Hilaire, J., Creutzig, F., Amann, T., Beringer, T., De Oliveira Garcia, W., Hartmann, J., Khanna, T., Luderer, G., Nemet, G. F., Rogelj, J., Smith, P., Vicente, J. V., Wilcox, J., Del Mar Zamora Dominguez, M., & Minx, J. C. (2018). Negative emissions - Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects. Environmental Research Letters, 13(6). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabf9f
- GMF. (2022). Annual Progress Report on Green Shipping Corridors. https://www.globalmaritimeforum.org/publications/annual-progress-report-on-green-shipping-corridors
- GMF. (2023). Maritime, mining, steel, and energy industry leaders join forces to develop first-ever concept for a green corridor between South Africa and Europe. Getting to Zero Coalition . https://www.globalmaritimeforum.org/press/maritime-mining-steel-and-energy-industry-leaders-join-forces-to-develop-first-ever-concept-for-a-green-corridor-between-south-africa-and-europe
- Government of the UK. (2021). UK enshrines new target in law to slash emissions by 78% by 2035 - GOV.UK. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-enshrines-new-target-in-law-to-slash-emissions-by-78-by-2035
- Hausfather, Z., Chay, F., Freeman, J., & Cullenward, D. (2022). The SBTi net-zero standard should include guidance on carbon removal. https://carbonplan.org/research/sbti-carbon-removal
- Hayer, S. (2016). Decision-making processes of ICAO and IMO in respect of environmental regulations STUDY. https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/996fd06c-de15-11e6-ad7c-01aa75ed71a1
- ICCT. (2020a). New IMO study highlights sharp rise in short-lived climate pollution | International Council on Clean Transportation. https://theicct.org/news/fourth-imo-ghg-study-finalreport-pr-20200804
- ICCT. (2020b). Potential CO2 reductions under the Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index | International Council on Clean Transportation. https://theicct.org/publications/marine-eexi-nov2020
- ICCT. (2021). Choose wisely: IMO’s carbon intensity target could be the difference between rising or falling shipping emissions this decade | International Council on Clean Transportation. https://theicct.org/blog/staff/imo-carbon-intensity-target-may2021
- IMO. (2009). Second IMO GHG Study 2009. http://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/PollutionPrevention/AirPollution/Documents/SecondIMOGHGStudy2009.pdf
- IMO. (2013). Amendments to MARPOL Annex VI: Inclusion of regulation on energy efficiency for ships. MEPC.203(62). https://www.marpol-annex-vi.com/eedi-seemp/
- IMO. (2017). Energy Efficiency Measures. https://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/PollutionPrevention/AirPollution/Pages/Technical-and-Operational-Measures.aspx
- IMO. (2018). Initial IMO Strategy on reduction of GHG emissions from ships. MEPC, 304(72). https://wwwcdn.imo.org/localresources/en/KnowledgeCentre/IndexofIMOResolutions/MEPCDocuments/MEPC.304(72).pdf
- IMO. (2020). Resolution MEPC.327(75): Encouragement of member states to develop and submit voluntary national action plans to address GHG emissions from ships. In MEPC 75/18: Vol. Resolution MEPC.327… (Annex 4). https://wwwcdn.imo.org/localresources/en/OurWork/Environment/Documents/Air%20pollution/Resolution%20MEPC.327(75).pdf
- IMO. (2022). National Action Plans. https://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/Pages/RELEVANT-NATIONAL-ACTION-PLANS-AND-STRATEGIES.aspx
- IMO. (2023a). 2023 IMO Strategy on reduction of GHG emissions from ships. MEPC.377(80). https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/PressBriefings/pages/Revised-GHG-reduction-strategy-for-global-shipping-adopted-.aspx
- IMO. (2023b). Maritime Just Transition. https://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/HumanElement/Pages/Maritime-Just-Transition.aspx
- IMO - MEPC. (2020). Reduction of GHG emissions from ships. Fourth IMO GHG Study 2020. International Maritime Organization, 53(9), 1689–1699.
- IPCC. (2006). Annex 1: Worksheets, Volume 2, 2006 IPCC Guidelines. http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/2_Volume2/V2_x_An1_Worksheets.pdf
- IPCC. (2018). IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C. IPCC. https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/
- IPCC. (2023). Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) - Summary for policymakers. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315071961-11
- JRC, & IEA. (2022). EDGAR’s Global Fossil CO2 Emissions from 1990 to 2021 (EDGARv.7) - CO2 total emissions. https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset_ghg70
- Lloyd’s Register, & UMAS. (2019). Zero-Emission Vessels: Transition Pathways. https://www.lr.org/en/about-us/press-room/press-release/lr-and-umas-release-new-zero-emission-vessels-transition-pathways-study/
- Lowell, D., & Bradley, M. J. (2013). Assessment of the fuel cycle impact of liquefied natural gas as used in international shipping. http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCTwhitepaper_MarineLNG_130513.pdf
- Maersk. (2022). What can the industry learn and adopt from regional regulations: Deep-diving on two EU regulatory proposals for the maritime industry. https://www.zerocarbonshipping.com/publications/fueleu-ets-analysis-what-can-the-industry-learn-and-adopt-from-regional-regulations/
- Maritime Just Transition Task Force. (2022). Mapping a maritime just transition for seafarers. https://unglobalcompact.org/take-action/think-labs/just-transition/about
- Marshall Islands, & Solomon Islands. (2022). Proposal for a GHG levy as a component in a basket of measures- ISWG-GHG13/4/11. https://www.imo.org/en/about/pages/documentsresources.aspx
- Ocean Conservancy. (2020, November). IMO and Arctic States Slammed for Endorsing Continued Arctic Pollution - Ocean Conservancy. https://oceanconservancy.org/news/imo-arctic-states-slammed-endorsing-continued-arctic-pollution/
- OECD, & ITF. (2018). Decarbonising Maritime Transport. https://www.itf-oecd.org/decarbonising-maritime-transport
- Osterkamp, P., Smith, T., & Kasper, S. (2021). Five percent zero emission fuels by 2030 needed for Paris-aligned shipping decarbonization. https://www.globalmaritimeforum.org/content/2021/03/Getting-to-Zero-Coalition_Five-percent-zero-emission-fuels-by-2030.pdf
- Pavlenko, N., Comer, B., Zhou, Y., Clark, N., & Rutherford, D. (2020). The climate implications of using LNG as a marine fuel. In ICCT Working Paper 2020-02. https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/Climate_implications_LNG_marinefuel_01282020.pdf
- Petroni, M., & Ancygier, A. (2023). Global maritime carbon footprint: EU policy diffusion. Discussion Paper of the 4i-TRACTION. https://climateanalytics.org/publications/2023/global-maritime-carbon-footprint-eu-policy-diffusion
- Psaraftis, H. N., Zis, T., & Lagouvardou, S. (2021). A comparative evaluation of market based measures for shipping decarbonization. Maritime Transport Research, 2, 100019. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.MARTRA.2021.100019
- Roy, B., & Comer, B. (2017). Alternatives to heavy fuel oil use in the Arctic: Economic and environmental tradeoffs. https://theicct.org/publications/alternatives-heavy-fuel-oil-use-arctic-economic-and-environmental-tradeoffs
- Saul, J. (2021). UN adopts ban on heavy fuel oil use by ships in Arctic. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/un-adopts-ban-heavy-fuel-oil-use-by-ships-arctic-2021-06-17/#:~:text=For%20the%20Ar[…]r%20July%201%2C%202024
- Smith, & Shaw. (2023). An overview of the discussions from IMO ISWG-GHG 14. UMAS. https://www.u-mas.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/ISWG-GHG-14-overview-UMAS-.pdf
- Smith, T., Galbraith, C., Velandia, P., Taylor, J., Suarez de la Fuente, S., Thorne, C., O’Keefe, E., Kapur, A., Howes, J., Roberts, L., & Taylor, R. (2022). International Maritime Decarbonisation Transitions – The costs and impacts of different pathways for international shipping to achieve alignment to the 1.5°C temperature goal – Main Report.
- Smith, T. W. P., Jalkanen, J. P., Anderson, B. A., Corbett, J. J., Faber, J., Hanayama, S., O’Keeffe, E., Parker, S., Johansson, L., Aldous, L., Raucci, C., Traut, M., Ettinger, S., Nelissen, D., Lee, D. S., Ng, S., Agrawal, A., Winebrake, J. J., & Hoen, M., A. (2014). Third IMO Greenhouse Gas Study 2014. International Maritime Organization (IMO), 327. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0912-3
- Spero, J., & Raval, A. (2019). Maritime chiefs call for ship speed limits to cut emissions. https://www.ft.com/content/30e68844-6a8f-11e9-80c7-60ee53e6681d
- The Canadian Press. (2020). Ban on heavy fuel in the Arctic full of holes. https://www.nsnews.com/ban-on-heavy-fuel-oil-in-arctic-full-of-holes-environmental-group-1.24081294
- Transport & Environment. (2019). LNG remains a dead end for decarbonising maritime transport. https://www.transportenvironment.org/newsroom/blog/lng-remains-deadend-decarbonising-maritime-transport
- Transport & Environment. (2021, April). UK closes loophole on plane and ship emissions with carbon budget | Transport & Environment. https://www.transportenvironment.org/press/uk-closes-loophole-plane-and-ship-emissions-carbon-budget
- UK Government. (2022). UK Export Finance Annual Report and Accounts 2021 to 2022. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-export-finance-annual-report-and-accounts-2021-to-2022
- UMAS. (2019). How can shipping decarbonise? https://www.u-mas.co.uk/how-can-shipping-decarbonise-a-new-infographic-highlights-what-itd-take-to-decarbonise-shipping-by-2050/
- UNCTAD. (2022). Review of Maritime Transport 2022. https://unctad.org/rmt2022
- UNWTO. (2023). Global and regional tourism performance. https://www.unwto.org/tourism-data/global-and-regional-tourism-performance
- U.S. Government. (2022). H.R.8336 – Clean Shipping Act. https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/8336?s=1&r=48#:~:text=This%20bill%20directs%20the%20Environmental,baseline%20by%202040%20and%20beyond.
- WTO. (2023). Global Trade Outlook and Statistics. https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/trade_outlook23_e.pdf
Further analysis
Latest publications
Stay informed
Subscribe to our newsletter