Paris Agreement targets
The government of Argentina submitted its second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in December 2020. The second NDC sets the absolute, economy-wide and unconditional goal of limiting greenhouse gas emissions to 359 MtCO2e in 2030 including LULUCF (Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible, 2020). We have estimated this target to be 313 MtCO2e (excl. LULUCF) by 2030.
This new target is 26% below Argentina’s previous NDC target, which provided an unconditional target limiting 2030 emissions to 422 MtCO2e (excl. LULUCF). Argentina’s second NDC covers emissions from all sectors and covers CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs and PFCs. The country’s previous NDC also covered sulfur hexafluoride (SF6).
This new target represents an increase in emissions of 35% above 1990 levels and a 2% decrease below 2010 levels (excl. LULUCF).
The process of updating the NDC was carried out in parallel and informed by development of Argentina’s long-term strategy (LTS), which will be presented at COP26 in Glasgow. The NDC states that the LTS will include the goal of carbon neutrality by 2050. Argentina acknowledges that achieving this target requires structural long-term changes and a gradual action plan in the short term.
Although the new target shows a rise in climate mitigation ambition, both the NDC and LTS targets need to be reflected in the short-term with concrete actions and sectoral plans, such as supporting low-carbon recovery measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, including phasing out the exploration and extraction of fossil fuels such as the Vaca Muerta gas field, eliminating fossil fuel subsidies, and addressing the country’s increasing dependency on meat production and exports.
On 22 April 2021, Argentina's President announced at the Leaders’ Summit on Climate that they will increase their climate commitment, beyond what was submitted in the second NDC last December. We estimate the announced improvements translates into a further 2.7% reduction of emissions (excluding LULUCF) compared to their last NDC submission. Our analysis refers to the December 2020 NDC until Argentina makes an official submission to the UNFCCC.
CAT ratings are based on emissions excluding the LULUCF sector. To obtain the NDC emissions level excluding LULUCF, the CAT assumes that the share of the LULUCF emissions in 2030 will be similar to the share of these emissions in the NDC’s BAU scenario. For more details, please see the Assumptions section.
The CAT rates Argentina's target as "Insufficient" when rated against modelled domestic pathways ("domestic target"), and "Highly insufficient" when rated against the fair share contribution ("fair share target"). Argentina does not specify a conditional target or an international element in its NDC, so we rate the unconditional target against the two rating frameworks.
We rate Argentina’s unconditional climate target of “not exceeding the net emission of 359 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2030” from its December 2020 NDC as “Insufficient” when compared with modelled domestic emissions pathways. We refer to this as Argentina’s “domestic target”, or what they will do within their own territory. The “Insufficient” rating indicates that Argentina’s domestic target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.
Argentina’s domestic target is very close to the “Almost sufficient” rating.
Our methods do not provide a clear answer for the need for finance for Argentina. On balance the CAT methodology shows that provision of a small but important amount of international support is consistent with the wide range of literature on fair share contributions to meeting the Paris Agreement's goals.
We rate Argentina’s unconditional 2030 climate target from December 2020 as “Highly insufficient” when compared with its fair-share contribution to climate action. We refer to this as Argentina’s “fair share target”.
In comparison to our previous assessment of Argentina’s NDC target against fair share, where we had rated the 2030 climate target as “Insufficient”, our updated method rates the same target as “Highly insufficient”. Argentina’s fair share is slightly more stringent in 2021 due to changes in the CAT’s methods for calculating fair shares. Previously, a few studies had a strong impact on the upper end of the effort-sharing range. Under the new methods, those studies still impact the range but don’t determine it as strongly. Argentina’s fair share is determined by multiple historic indicators, including historic emissions per capita and GDP/capita. Recent economic and political developments are not reflected in Argentina’s fair share calculations as few studies were published in the last 5 years.
Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled pathways and fair share) can be found here.
Last NDC update
The government of Argentina submitted its second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in December 2020. Argentina pledges “not exceeding the net emission of 359 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2030”. The second NDC sets the absolute, economy-wide and unconditional goal equivalent to limiting greenhouse gas emissions to 313 MtCO2e (excl. LULUCF) by 2030. <Add link>
Net zero and other long-term target(s)
Information on Argentina’s net zero target is incomplete.
Argentina is currently preparing its long-term strategy (LTS), which will be presented at COP26 in Glasgow. The NDC states that the LTS will include the goal of carbon neutrality by 2050.
Argentina submitted a list of unilateral and supported mitigation actions being undertaken across the energy efficiency, renewable energy, biofuels, forest management and waste management sectors. According to the submission “these initiatives have a direct and positive consequence in the emission reduction of GHG, contributing to the ultimate objective of the Convention” (Secretariat of Environment and Sustainable Development, 2010).