Argentina

Overall rating
Critically insufficient

Policies and action
against modelled domestic pathways

Critically insufficient
4°C+ World

NDC target
against modelled domestic pathways

Highly insufficient
< 4°C World

NDC target
against fair share

Highly insufficient
< 4°C World
Climate finance
Not assessed
Net zero target

year

2050

Comprehensiveness rated as

Poor
Land use & forestry

historically considered a

Source

Policies and action
against modelled domestic pathways

Critically insufficient

We rate Argentina’s policies and actions as “Critically insufficient” when compared with modelled domestic emissions pathways. This rating indicates that Argentina’s climate policies reflect minimal to no action and are not at all consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.

Argentina’s policies and action rating compared to modelled domestic pathways is now lower than in our previous assessment due to an update in our projections for the agriculture sector. Newer projections expect higher agricultural and livestock production by 2030, leading to ~2% higher emissions under current policies.

Argentina’s policies and action also remain inadequate to achieve its NDC target, let alone be 1.5°C compatible. The CAT estimates that under current policies Argentina will miss its target by 54 MtCO2e. To be 1.5°C compatible, Argentina’s policies and action projections should be at least 175 MtCO2e lower in 2030.

Policy overview

Under current policies, total emissions (excluding LULUCF) are still projected to grow significantly after 2022, namely by about 15% above 2022 levels by 2030, reaching about 405 MtCO2 in 2030 (excl. LULUCF).

In 2022, emissions in Argentina rebounded above 2019 levels after a sharp drop in 2020 due to COVID-19. This puts Argentina’s emissions projections under current policies at approximately 15% above its 2030 target. Our analysis of current policies is based on projections developed by the National University of Central Buenos Aires (UNICEN) (Blanco & Keesler, 2022; Keesler & Blanco, 2024). These projections include relevant policy developments up to 2022. Later developments, such as the power sector reforms, power subsidies reform and large fossil fuel investments proposed by the current government could have a significant impact on how emissions develop in the next few years, but are not yet reflected in our current emissions projections.

According to UNICEN’s modelling results, if Argentina were to implement additional policies to scale-up low carbon energy sources and reduce energy demand, it could almost reach its NDC target (Blanco & Keesler, 2022). This would require, reaching a carbon-free power grid by 2050, reaching 100% EV sales by 2050, and increasing energy efficiency. However, to be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, Argentina would also need to speed up the achievement of those measures, plus develop more ambitious policies, especially to stop deforestation, and reduce livestock-related emissions.

UNICEN also models a carbon neutrality scenario for Argentina’s AFOLU sector. This scenario shows the sector could become carbon neutral by 2050 by increasing the GHG efficiency of livestock production by 10%, reducing synthetic fertiliser use by 90%, increasing the collection of crop residues by 25%, reducing grasslands and forests burning by 90%, reducing deforestation by 90%, and increasing both commercial forestry and forest restoration. Critically, this scenario also includes the reduction of livestock for domestic consumption ‘following the trends of the latest years in domestic consumption’ (Keesler & Blanco, 2024).

Argentina’s energy sector is its biggest source of GHG emissions, reaching 174 MtCO2eq in 2020 (54% of the total). Total energy supply increased 81% between 1990 and 2021, and fossil fuels still account for around 89%, mostly gas (50%) and oil (36%).

President Milei’s administration, which took office in December 2023, has substantially restructured Argentina’s national government, with a focus on reducing the size of the public administration, and cutting expenditure. In this process, the former Ministry of Environment has been reduced to the sub-secretary level, under the Secretary of Sport, Tourism and Environment (EcoNews Global, 2023).

During his presidential campaign, President Milei stated he does not believe in man-made climate change and that his government would not support climate policies, including threats to leave the Paris Agreement (Colombo, 2023). More recently, his administration stated that Argentina will not be leaving the Paris Agreement, but the outlook looks bleak on increasing or even maintaining climate ambition in Argentina for the next four years (Spring, 2023).

The new government plans to continue developing the Vaca Muerta fossil gas fields, as well as the fossil gas pipeline and the LNG terminal, both planned by the previous administration. To support these large investments, the government set out an incentive package called RIGI or Incentive Regime for Large Investments (KPMG, 2024).

In January 2023, the government started negotiating contracts with oil and fossil gas producers at Vaca Muerta to ensure the future pipeline will work at capacity (Government of Argentina, 2022e). In June 2023, the fossil gas pipeline was finished ahead of schedule and began operations. It is expected to carry 11 mm3/d during 2023, and to reach 22 mm3/d in 2024, which represents around 15% of the country’s current consumption (Diamante, 2023). This has the potential to prevent Argentina from meeting its climate targets through higher upstream energy emissions as well as the lock-in effects of fossil fuel infrastructure. In July 2024, a compressor plant was installed to increase the carrying capacity of the pipeline by 5 m3/d, and a second section of the pipeline is still under construction (Government of Argentina, 2024d).

During the second half of 2023 the Argentinian government produced three strategic climate policies: the National Strategy for International Climate Financing 2023, the National Strategy for the Use of Carbon Markets 2023 and the National Strategy for Sustainable Finance, 2023 (ENFS) (Banco Central de la República Argentina, 2023; Government of Argentina, 2023d; MECON, 2023). However, these are so far only high-level documents meant to structure future work on designing climate finance roadmaps and possibly a cap-and-trade system in the Argentinian power and industry sectors. It remains uncertain whether these policies will be designed and implemented by the Milei administration.

In December 2022, the government published its new National Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Plan until 2030 (Government of Argentina, 2022d). This strategy was published shortly after Argentina submitted its Long-term Strategy to the UNFCCC, and reiterates both Argentina’s NDC and LTS targets, as well as expanding on many of the measures presented in Argentina’s Fourth BUR earlier in 2022. So far, the strategy seems to still be in place, but whether its implementation will continue during Milei’s administration is uncertain.

The strategy includes detailed information on Argentina’s climate measures and targets covering all major sectors. Some highlights of this strategy include targets for the decarbonisation of the transport sector, incentives to increase energy efficiency in buildings, and measures to reduce food loss and waste. This strategy, however, does not include any new renewable energy targets or measures, and it does not include any significant measures to reduce emissions from the AFOLU sector, especially from livestock.

Land use & forestry
Source

Argentina’s average share of emissions from Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) over the past 20 years is more than 20% of the country’s total emissions. Between 2014 and 2019, however, emissions from LULUCF started falling up to as low as to 3% of total emissions, only to bounce back to 22% in 2020. This indicates that Argentina’s recent approach to curbing land use emissions might be working and would need to be maintained, updated, and reinforced. Argentina signed the Glasgow declaration on forests and land use during COP26.

LULUCF emissions in Argentina were around 51 MtCO2e in 2022 according to its first BTR (Government of Argentina, 2024a), accounting for ~20% of national GHG emissions. LULUCF emissions were exceptionally high in 2020 but have otherwise been on a downward trend partially thanks to the implementation of the 2007 Native Forests Law (Law 26.331). They decreased by 41% in 2020 compared to 2007 levels but remain a significant source of emissions in Argentina.

Argentina has around 54 million hectares of native forests, as well as 1.3 million hectares of cultivated forests. According to its fourth BUR, in 2018 some 187,000 hectares were lost due to the expansion of agricultural land, to forest fires, and the overexploitation of forest resources (Government of Argentina, 2022c). The government acknowledges that some of this land clearing is illegal, and that better enforcement of forestry regulations is needed. According to the Forest Declaration Assessment, deforestation in Argentina remains at high levels with 140,000 ha lost in 2023 (The forest declaration Assessment, 2024).

The Native Forests Law aims at slowing the reduction of Argentina’s native forest surface, focused on achieving net-zero deforestation. The law set minimum budgets to be spent on forest protection and established a capacity building scheme and requirements for provinces to comprehensively monitor and track forest areas. It also established the National Fund for Enriching and Conserving Native Forests that disburses funds to provinces that protect native forests (Law 26331, 2007).

As early as the late 1990s, Argentina implemented Law 25.080 to promote investments in afforestation and prevent forest degradation (Ley 25.080, 1999). According to Argentina’s fourth BUR, this law, amended by Law 26.432 in 2008, has contributed to a total of 1.3 million hectares of forest area, with a target of 1.6 million in 2030 (Government of Argentina, 2022c). However, independent sources claim that the programme has been de-funded and ecosystem services payments have been greatly decreased in real terms, and its effectiveness to continue to support afforestation and preservation is at risk (Escobar, 2021).

Alongside the implementation of its PANByCC, Argentina launched its ForestAr 2030 initiative, which aims to develop a broad stakeholder dialogue and strategy to conserve natural forests and to deliver on the country’s commitment to reducing climate change while achieving other sustainable development benefits. In the context of this initiative, the government created the National Plan for the Restoration of Native Forests through Resolution 267/2019, which seeks to restore 20 million ha of native forest per year by 2030 (Resolución 267/2019, 2019).

Recent studies show that for Argentina’s AFOLU sector to get close to carbon neutrality, the LULUCF sector would need to become a net emissions sink as fast as possible, and reach around -71 to -138 MtCO2e per year just to neutralise emissions from agriculture by 2050 (Frank et al., 2023; Keesler & Blanco, 2024). To achieve this, Argentina would need to set out stronger forestry policies, including ambitious targets and well-designed implementation and enforcement mechanisms, as well as improved coordination with subnational governments.

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