Argentina

In its NDC, Argentina has set an unconditional target of not exceeding 349 MtCO₂e in 2030. This target covers all sectors. The CAT excludes emissions from land use, land use change and forestry from this target and converts it to GWP AR4, resulting in 351 MtCO₂e in 2030. To obtain the NDC emissions level excluding LULUCF, the CAT uses a Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario for the LULUCF sector developed by UNICEN (Keesler & Blanco, 2024). For more details, please see the Assumptions section. The CAT rates this target as “Highly insufficient” both when compared to required domestic efforts, and when compared to Argentina’s fair share.

In November 2022, Argentina submitted a long-term strategy (LTS) to the UNFCCC that includes a target to reach GHG neutrality by 2050 (Government of Argentina, 2022a).

[NOTE: assumptions made to quantify these targets are included in the Assumptions section]

Argentina’s 2021 NDC target of 351 MtCO₂e in 2030 is just a 3% reduction below the previous target submitted in December 2020, and 29% below its first NDC target. Argentina’s revised NDC covers emissions from all sectors and covers CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, HFCs and PFCs. The country’s first NDC also covered sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆).

This new target represents a 9% increase in emissions above 2010 levels (excl. LULUCF).

Although the new target shows a minimal increase in climate mitigation ambition, the NDC and LTS targets still need to be reflected in the short-term with concrete actions and sectoral plans, such as phasing out the exploration and extraction of fossil fuels (e.g. at the Vaca Muerta fossil gas field), eliminating fossil fuel subsidies, and addressing the country’s rising emissions from the AFOLU sector, including agriculture and cattle farming.

* Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target

Target development timeline & previous CAT analysis

• 12.12.2020 Argentina proposed an NDC update at the Climate Ambition Summit
• 30.12.2020 Argentina submitted a stronger NDC target
• 02.11.2021 Argentina submitted a stronger NDC target

The CAT rates NDC targets against each country’s fair share contribution to global climate change mitigation, considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability, and equality. The CAT also rates NDC targets against indicative national emissions from global least-cost emissions pathways (called modelled domestic pathways).

Developing countries like Argentina may need support to achieve emissions reductions in line with a physically required pathway to achieving the 1.5°C long-term temperature goal.

The CAT rates Argentina's target as "Highly insufficient" both when rated against modelled domestic pathways, and when rated against the fair share contribution. Argentina has one NDC target. It has not specified whether a portion of the target is conditional on international support or whether its NDC has an international element, so we rate its NDC target against both frameworks, fairness and modelled domestic pathways.

We rate Argentina’s 2030 NDC target as “Highly insufficient” when compared with modelled domestic emissions pathways, or what Argentina needs to do within its own borders.

The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Argentina’s NDC target in 2030 leads to rising, rather than falling, emissions and is not at all consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Argentina’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C by end of the century.

We rate Argentina’s 2030 NDC target as “Highly insufficient” when compared with its fair share contribution to climate action.

The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Argentina’s NDC target is not at all consistent with any principle of fairness, like responsibility, capability, or equality. If all countries were to follow Argentina’s approach, warming could reach over 3°C and up to 4°C.

The improvement in the CAT rating for Argentina’s NDC target since our last update, from “Critically insufficient” to “Highly insufficient”, is not due to Argentina submitting a new and stronger NDC target, but rather to a literature update to our fair share (FS) ranges, which aligns our equity approaches with international environmental law (Rajamani et al., 2021) and therefore exclude studies based on cost-effectiveness; we also included additional studies to reflect the latest research available in the field. Therefore, this change of ratings does not represent improved climate action on the ground, compared to our previous assessment.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.

We evaluate the net zero target as: Poor.

In November 2022, Argentina submitted a long-term strategy (LTS) to the UNFCCC that includes a target to reach GHG neutrality by 2050 (Government of Argentina, 2022a).

Argentina’s net zero target does not cover most of the good practice elements identified by the CAT net zero methodology. The target explicitly covers all gases and sectors of the economy, but the government fails to disclose other key information such as the role of carbon dioxide removals.

Argentina could improve the target architecture and transparency of its net zero target. For example, the government could set separate emission and reduction targets and clarify its accounting methodology for LULUCF. It could further improve transparency on its planning process, the use of tools such as pathway modelling and specific sectoral policy objectives to reach net zero.

For the full analysis click here.