Argentina

In its NDC, Argentina has set an unconditional target of not exceeding 349 MtCO₂e in 2030. This target covers all sectors. The CAT excludes emissions from land use, land use change and forestry from this target and converts it to GWP AR4, resulting in 368 MtCO₂e in 2030. The CAT rates this target as “Highly insufficient” compared to required domestic efforts, and “Critically insufficient” when compared to Argentina’s fair share.

In November 2022, Argentina submitted a long-term strategy (LTS) to the UNFCCC that includes a target to reach GHG neutrality by 2050 (Government of Argentina, 2022a).

[NOTE: assumptions made to quantify these targets are included in the Assumptions section]

Argentina’s 2021 NDC target of not exceeding the net emission of 349 MtCO₂e in 2030 is just 2% below the previous target submitted in December 2020, but 26% below its first NDC target. Argentina’s revised NDC covers emissions from all sectors and covers CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, HFCs and PFCs. The country’s first NDC also covered sulphur hexafluoride (SF6).

This new target represents a an 16% increase in emissions above 2010 levels (excl. LULUCF).

Although the new target shows a rise in climate mitigation ambition, both NDC and LTS targets need to be reflected in the short term with concrete actions and sectoral plans, such as phasing out the exploration and extraction of fossil fuels (e.g. at the Vaca Muerta gas field), eliminating fossil fuel subsidies, and addressing the country’s rising emissions from the land sector, including agriculture and cattle farming.

* Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target

Target development timeline & previous CAT analysis

• 12.12.2020 Argentina proposed an NDC update at the Climate Ambition Summit
• 30.12.2020 Argentina submitted a stronger NDC target
• 02.11.2021 Argentina submitted a stronger NDC target

The CAT rates NDC targets against what a country should be doing within its own borders as well as what a fair contribution to achieving the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal would be. For assessing targets against fair share, we consider both country’s domestic emission reductions and any emissions it supports abroad through the use of market mechanisms or other ways of support, as relevant.

The CAT rates Argentina's target as "Highly insufficient" when rated against modelled domestic pathways, and "Critically insufficient" when rated against the fair share contribution. Argentina does not specify a conditional target or an international element in its NDC, so we rate the unconditional target against the two rating frameworks.

CAT ratings are based on emissions excluding the LULUCF sector. To obtain the NDC emissions level excluding LULUCF, the CAT uses a Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario for the LULUCF sector developed by UNICEN (Blanco & Keesler, 2022). For more details, please see the Assumptions section.

We rate Argentina’s NDC target of “not exceeding the net emission of 349 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2030” from its November 2021 revised NDC target as “Highly insufficient” when compared with modelled domestic emissions pathways, or what Argentina needs to do within its own borders. The “Highly insufficient” rating indicates that Argentina’s domestic target in 2030 needs substantial improvements to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. If all countries were to follow Argentina’s approach, warming would reach over 3°C and up to 4°C.

Argentina’s NDC rating have all been rated one grade lower due to two reasons: first, due to a change in our assumptions about LULUCF emissions in Argentina in 2030, which result in higher emissions excluding LULUCF than in previous assessments. Projections under current policies show that the LULUCF sector is expected to become a small GHG sink by 2030, while previous projections expected LULUCF to remain a relevant source of emissions. This means that the contribution needed from other sectors to reach Argentina’s NDC target will be smaller, because the LULUCF sector will make a larger contribution towards the target. Second, due to an update in our modelled domestic pathways to reflect the latest science in line with the IPCC AR6 suite. This latest evidence shows that Argentina needs to cut emissions faster to align with 1.5°C.

Our methods do not provide a clear answer to whether Argentina should receive climate finance from abroad to reduce its emissions.

We rate Argentina’s 2030 NDC target from November 2021 as “Critically insufficient” when compared with its fair share contribution to climate action. The “Critically insufficient” rating indicates that Argentina’s climate target reflect minimal to no action and are not at all consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.

The drop in the CAT rating for Argentina’s NDC target since our last update, from “Highly insufficient” to “Critically insufficient”, is not due to Argentina submitting a new and weaker NDC target, but rather to a change in our assumptions about LULUCF emissions in Argentina in 2030, which result in higher emissions excluding LULUCF than in previous assessments. Projections under current policies show that the LULUCF sector is expected to become a small GHG sink by 2030, while previous projections expected LULUCF to remain a relevant source of emissions.

This means that the contribution needed from other sectors to reach Argentina’s NDC target will be smaller, because the LULUCF sector will make a larger contribution towards the target. The CAT rates NDC targets excluding LULUCF.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (against modelled domestic pathways and fair share) can be found here.

We evaluate the net zero target as: Poor.

In November 2022, Argentina submitted a long-term strategy (LTS) to the UNFCCC that includes a target to reach GHG neutrality by 2050 (Government of Argentina, 2022a). Argentina has previously announced its aim to set a net zero CO₂ target (“carbon neutrality”) by 2050 in its second NDC submitted in 2020 (Government of Argentina, 2020b).

Argentina’s net zero target currently does not cover most of the good practice elements identified by the CAT net zero methodology. The target explicitly covers all gases and sectors of the economy, but the government fails to disclose other key information such as the role of carbon dioxide removals.

Argentina could improve the target architecture and transparency of its net zero target. For example, the government could set separate emission and reduction targets and clarify its accounting methodology for LULUCF. It could further improve transparency on its planning process, the use of tools such as pathway modelling and specific sectoral policy objectives to reach net zero.

For the full analysis click here.