Canada

NDC

We calculate a 40-45% reduction from base year emissions (2005) excluding LULUCF and then subtract the projected LULUCF contribution in 2030. That LULUCF contribution ranges from our own estimates based on the trend over the last decade (up to 35 MtCO₂e source) at one end, to the values in the government’s 2023 emissions projections (up to -45 MtCO₂e sink in the additional measures scenario) at the other end. These government estimated sink contributions are higher than the government’s previous estimates of -12 to -27 MtCO₂e in its 8^th National Communication (Government of Canada, 2022a).

The reason that we added our own estimates to the LULUCF contribution is that in the 2024 inventory, Canada revised its approach to LULUCF, making it an overall source rather than sink. However, the 2023 projections still take the former approach, meaning there is an inconsistency between the government’s projection and the inventory until the new projections are published. Hence, we added our own simplified estimates and show a range within which the actually expected values might likely fall.

Canada is still considering the extent to which it will rely on international carbon market credits (‘internationally transferred mitigation outcomes’ or ITMOs), however, it did indicate that it may use credits obtained under the Western Climate Initiative (a regional carbon market between some Canadian provinces and American states) for compliance with its 2030 target in its 8^th National Communication (Government of Canada, 2022a). In its latest emissions projection report, that estimate for 2030 is 0.6 MtCO₂e (Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2023b).

We have added these potential credits to the NDC values we rate against modelled domestic pathways (i.e. the reductions that Canada should achieve within its borders), but subtract them in the NDC value we rate against the country’s fair share allocation.

Our current policy projection is based on the ‘Reference Case’, which is updated annually by the Government of Canada, harmonised to the last historical year of 2022 (Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2023b).

The projections include policy measures in place as of August 2023. In December 2023, Canada adopted its EV sales mandate regulations. We have adjusted our current policy projection to reflect this change. Beyond that change, we consider the current policy projection to be an accurate picture of the policy landscape as of January 2024.

The EV sales mandate adjustment is based on the estimated impact of the measure as outlined in the Regulatory Impact Statement and the difference between the reference and with additional measures scenario (Government of Canada, 2023e).

We do not include any contribution from LULUCF or market credits from the Western Climate Initiative in our estimates.

Our planned policy projection is based on the ‘with additional measures’ scenario provided by the government in its annual projections data, harmonised to the last historical emissions year of 2022 (Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2023b).

In our last assessment, we excluded emissions reductions associated with hydrogen given the concerns of Canada’s Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development over the validity of the modeling associated with those estimates (see the hydrogen section in the current policies tab for more details). The government has revised its assumptions for the impact of its hydrogen strategy downwards in its latest projection, so we no longer consider it necessary to make any adjustments to this pathway. Previously, the government had been assuming that 7.5% of blended marketable fossil gas would be from hydrogen, which has been revised down to 0.45%.

Note – Our COP28 global temperature update was based on data from Canada’s Fifth Biennial Report, harmonised to the latest historical emissions and included the adjustment for the reduced impact of the hydrogen strategy.

Canada’s net zero strategy assumes a 100 MtCO₂e sink in 2050 to assist with achieving the country’s net zero target. We use this value for the residual emissions in their net zero target excluding LULUCF (Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2022c).

The CAT uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for all figures and time series. Assessments completed prior to December 2018 (COP24) used GWP values from the IPCC’s Second Assessment Report (SAR).