Canada

In February 2025, Canada submitted its 2035 NDC to the UNFCCC, committing to reduce its emissions by 45–50% below 2005 levels by 2035. For more information, please see the 2035 NDC tab. However, this new submission did not increase ambition for 2030, with Canada maintaining its existing target, set in 2021, to cut emissions by 40–45% below 2005 levels by 2030 (incl. LULUCF).

The inclusion of LULUCF in Canada‘s NDC, along with uncertainties in the data for this sector, makes it difficult to clearly quantify the reduction target for the rest of the economy. For example, the most recent government emissions projections estimate up to 37 MtCO₂e of removals in 2030, but this figure has varied from 27 to 45 MtCO₂e in recent years (Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2025a). In its 2035 NDC submission, the federal government also left the door open to the possibility of using internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs) to help meet its emissions reduction targets and in September 2026 announced it was developing a policy framework to trade ITMOs (Government of Canada, 2025a; Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2026g).

Canada passed the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act in June 2021, which enshrines its 2050 net zero target—as well as its 2030 target—into law. Canada last updated its long-term strategy in November 2022.

In July 2021, Canada submitted its updated NDC to the UNFCCC, in which it strengthened its emissions reduction target from a 30% reduction below 2005 levels by 2030 to at least a 40-45% reduction (Government of Canada, 2021c). We calculate that this target equates to an emissions level in 2030 of 431-483 MtCO₂e once the contribution from its land sector has been excluded, or 37-44% below 2005 levels.

The focus of Canada’s emissions reduction target is on cutting emissions domestically; however, in its NDC submission, the government reconfirmed that it will continue to explore buying international carbon credits to meet its emission reduction targets. This approach risks shifting responsibility for mitigation abroad—potentially undermining domestic climate action—delaying investment in Canadian solutions, and raises concerns about the integrity and verification of international carbon credits.

* Before September 2021, all CAT ratings were based exclusively on fair share and only assessed a country’s target.

Target development timeline & previous CAT analysis

• 12.07. 2021 – Canada submits its updated NDC
• 22.04. 2021 – Canada announces a stronger NDC target

The CAT compares NDC targets to country fair share contributions to global climate change mitigation, considering a range of equity principles including responsibility, capability, and equality. The CAT also compares NDC targets to indicative national emissions from global least-cost emissions pathways (called modelled domestic pathways). For assessing targets with the fair share, we consider both a country’s domestic emission reductions and any emissions it supports abroad through the use of market mechanisms or other ways of support, as relevant.

Canada has indicated that it may use market mechanisms to achieve its target, but has not provided full details on the extent of such usage. In the absence of any clarity on the extent of usage, we rate its NDC target by comparing to both modelled domestic pathways and fairness metrics.

Relying on internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs) to achieve emissions reduction targets risks shifting responsibility for mitigation abroad, potentially undermining domestic climate action and delaying investment in Canadian solutions. There are also concerns about the integrity and verification of international carbon credits.

Previously, Canada accounted for international carbon credits from the linked cap-and-trade system between Quebec and California, as part of the Western Climate Initiative (WCI), in its emission projections. In its 2024 emission projections, the federal government accounted for a small amount—0.5 MtCO₂e—of international credits from this market. In previous CAT assessments, we rated Canada’s NDC target both without these credits (i.e. considering only domestic reductions) compared to domestic pathways, and with the inclusion of credits from the WCI with our fair share metric. However, due to the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, WCI credits imported from the United States can no longer be considered as potential ITMOs under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. As a result, in its 2025 emissions projections, the federal government excludes WCI credits from its official estimates.

The ‘Almost sufficient’ rating indicates that Canada’s domestic target in 2030 is not yet consistent with modelled domestic pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C but could be, with moderate improvements. If all countries were to follow Canada’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C.

We rate Canada’s 2030 target as ‘Highly insufficient’ when compared with its fair share emissions allocation. The ‘Highly Insufficient’ rating indicates that Canada’s NDC target in 2030 is not at all consistent with its fair share of the global mitigation effort to limit warming to 1.5°C. If all countries were to follow Canada’s approach, warming would reach over 3°C and up to 4°C.

To close the ‘fair share gap’ Canada either needs to begin supporting emission reductions abroad (on top of its domestic reductions, not as a means to reach its emissions reduction targets) or increase its provision of climate finance.

Canada’s international public climate finance contribution is rated ‘Insufficient’. While the government has proposed a new package of climate finance support, Canada’s past contributions have remained low compared with its fair share (OECD, 2022). The CAT weighs absolute contributions the highest amongst the four elements we assess.

In June 2021, Canada announced a doubling of its climate finance commitment from CAD 2.65 bn for the period of 2015-2021 to CAD 5.3 bn for the period of 2021-2026, delivered through a mix of grants (40%) and concessional loans (60%) (Government of Canada, 2021d).

In its 2026 Spring Economic Update, the federal government renewed its climate finance commitment with a proposed package of new measures (Department of Finance Canada, 2026). The commitment includes providing CAD 3bn over five years to Global Affairs Canada, and CAD 167.9 m over five years to Environment and Climate Change Canada (starting in 2026-27) to deliver climate-related support to vulnerable countries, as well as CAD 2 bn in capital for FinDev Canada (Canada’s development finance institution) over three years starting in 2028-29, and CAD 732 m to expand its concessional finance facility.

Over the next five years, starting in 2026-27, the government aims to provide more than CAD 13 bn in climate-related support to developing countries, drawing on public finance, contributions from multilateral development banks and Export Development Canada, and provide investment mobilised by private funds. However, critics have noted that details of how and where the finance will be allocated remain limited, including the balance between grants and loans and the shares earmarked for adaptation, mitigation, and loss and damage (Climate Action Network Canada, 2026).

Canada also remains committed to the collective goal of USD 100 bn a year in climate finance for developing countries through 2025. However, the USD 100 bn goal on its own is insufficient in the post-2020 period.

Canada is making progress on reducing support for fossil fuel development abroad, but a complete phase-out by 2030 looks unlikely.

At COP26, Canada agreed to “end new direct public support for the international unabated fossil fuel energy sector by the end of 2022”, but it kept the door open to allow for exceptions under certain circumstances (Government of Canada, 2022p; UK Government, 2021). In 2022, the federal government published a policy on how it would implement this commitment, although critics have pointed out that the guidelines allow for continued support for fossil gas in the power sector and carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS) in the fossil fuel sector ((Natural Resources Canada, 2022; Soubry & Cameron, 2024). While Export Development Canada claims to be implementing this ban and plans not to renew unabated fossil fuel investments upon maturity, it expects that this natural turnover will reduce its oil and gas financing by only 15% by 2030 (Export Development Canada, 2023)

To improve its rating, Canada needs to stop funding fossil fuels overseas completely and strengthen its commitments to provide climate finance.

Further information on how the CAT rates countries (with modelled domestic pathways and fair shares) can be found here.

Canada passed the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act in June 2021, which enshrined its 2050 net zero target as well as its 2030 target into law (Government of Canada, 2021e). Canada updated its long-term strategy in October 2022. The strategy explores a number of different scenarios capable of achieving net zero emissions in 2050, but none sets a clear pathway for the country to follow nor outlines the policies and measures needed to achieve its net zero target. Reliance on LULUCF and CDR by 2050 could be as high as 45% of Canada’s emissions in 2020 (or 301 MtCO₂e). In all scenarios, Canada is still producing and exporting oil and gas in 2050.

For our full analysis of the net zero target, click here.